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Old 01-01-2016, 11:56 AM   #81
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Some folks have been predicting 2 rate hikes in 2016 and two in 2017 if the economy is still sound by then that seems more reasonable to me.
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Old 01-01-2016, 12:03 PM   #82
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I made the correct prediction:


The Official DOW and S&P, 2015 Prediction Thread
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Old 01-01-2016, 12:03 PM   #83
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Some folks have been predicting 2 rate hikes in 2016 and two in 2017 if the economy is still sound by then that seems more reasonable to me.

Interesting how economic times change. A decade ago, your comment would be viewed as extreme wacko dovishness .... Now it is a conservative mainstream reality.


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Old 01-01-2016, 12:16 PM   #84
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At my age, I don't go out on a limb and predict anything anymore.
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Old 01-01-2016, 12:19 PM   #85
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At my age, I don't go out on a limb and predict anything anymore.

Darn it Aja, I was hoping you go out on a limb and say "mortgage the house and put it all into distressed shale US oil drilling companies". Ha!


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Old 01-01-2016, 12:21 PM   #86
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Darn it Aja, I was hoping you go out on a limb and say "mortgage the house and put it all into distressed shale US oil drilling companies". Ha!


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Whisper...natural gas...
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Old 01-01-2016, 03:24 PM   #87
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Whisper...natural gas...
On my second bowl of black-eye peas if that counts.
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Old 01-01-2016, 03:31 PM   #88
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On my second bowl of black-eye peas if that counts.
Don't eat too many, we don't need the gas for a while.
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Old 01-02-2016, 08:53 AM   #89
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optionable68 was the clear winner for 2015, winning overall and also category winner for
DOW, OIL and $CAD, an amazing record, making the forecast in December 2014. Congratulations!
DOW 17500
Oil 38.99
$CAD 0.74

Source
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Old 01-02-2016, 09:17 AM   #90
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S&P - 2,000, Dow 17,500 if Feds policy will keep "money tightening"
S&P - 2,200 and Dow 19,000 if Feds "easy money / QEs" policy will resume later in 2016.
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Old 01-02-2016, 12:31 PM   #91
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I was expecting about a 10% correction this year, so both the Dow and S&P finished about 7% above my forecast so I guess I should be happy.

BTW, dividends will make the S&P and Dows total return positive this year.

Then we factor in inflation, and we are in real net worth reverse gear.
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Old 01-02-2016, 12:40 PM   #92
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I think the most is 2 rate rise. It took the fed nearly 10 years to raise 1/4 rate, it probably will take another 10 for the whole point rate increase.


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Old 01-02-2016, 01:22 PM   #93
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Then we factor in inflation, and we are in real net worth reverse gear.
Inflation doesn't seem to be much of a factor for the last few years
Current US Inflation Rates: 2005-2015 | US Inflation Calculator
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Old 01-02-2016, 04:59 PM   #94
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I do not know how to play this game of calling the market down to 4 or 5 digits.

It's hard enough just to predict the direction of the market; up, down, or sideways. I define sideways as being within +-5%, and up and down are defined as above or below that band.

Having said that, I think the market will be sideways.
The market was sideways, according to my definition.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:37 AM   #95
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So how did we do with last years predictions?
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Old 01-07-2016, 04:43 PM   #96
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If we had made the prediction end Jan 7 I would have been really close.

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