Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: What's your appreciation rate?
Uh, we live in Texas 26 20.00%
4% A $100,000 home will be worth $324,340 in 30 years 45 34.62%
5% A $100,000 home will be worth $432,194 in 30 years 10 7.69%
6% A $100,000 home will be worth $574,000 in 30 years 11 8.46%
7% A $100,000 home will be worth $761,226 in 30 years 1 0.77%
8% A $100,000 home will be worth $1,006,266 in 30 years 9 6.92%
9% A $100,000 home will be worth $1,326,768 in thirty years 3 2.31%
10% A $100,000 home will be worth $1,744,940 in 30 years 3 2.31%
11% A $100,000 home will be worth $2,289,230 in 30 years 1 0.77%
> than 11% and I'm not telling 10 7.69%
Voted "negative" appreciation. 15 11.54%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 130. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-30-2008, 09:28 AM   #101
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Free4now here ya go cut and pasted. Exactly as i earlier reported.
Since 1990104.92% 5.83% 52Last 10 Years68.86% 6.89% 63Last 5 Years26.56% 5.31% 32Last 2 Years11.26% 5.63% 36Last 12 Months4.46% 4.46% 56Latest Quarter1.27% 5.09%
__________________

__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-30-2008, 10:29 AM   #102
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Honobob, you are clearly cherrypicking the best neighborhoods and showing how great things would have been if you had only invested years ago (with leverage!!).

Not all of us have the luck or foresight or crystal balls to predict the future of neighborhoods with the accuracy that you seem to think we all should have.

As an example, the neighborhood I currently live in (and bought into 5 years ago) is a solid working class neighborhood and very "multiculural" (read: a victim of white flight). I used to live in this same neighborhood 25 years ago, and in talking with my parents last night, they were shocked to find out that home values were so low here. 25 years ago, this neighborhood was one of the top neighborhoods in the metro area, the kind of place that doctors and lawyers lived. If you bought into this neighborhood 25 years ago expecting outsized returns for buying into the hottest neighborhood, you would be sorely dissappointed today (well, you would have moved years ago because the character of the neighborhood is totally different than it was 25 yrs ago).

Since 1984, when the previous owners purchased my current house, the price has gone up just a hair under 3% a year. That is below inflation, by the way. That's the kind of returns you get for investing in the hottest area??

It is just like investing in the stock market in many ways. If you miss the huge run up in prices and get in after the money has been made, you are too late.
__________________

__________________
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 10:44 AM   #103
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
"Uh, we live in Texas" also means "we didn't participate in the bubble, so nothing is popping here."
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 01:26 PM   #104
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Honobob, you are clearly cherrypicking the best neighborhoods and showing how great things would have been if you had only invested years ago (with leverage!!).

I’ve given the rate for the whole city and then the better NBHD’s. I think with google earth, and an hour talk with a good local realtor I could pick the better appreciating area in any American city and determine if it was coming or going. Pretty much anyone could do it if they looked at the real numbers and facts without distorting with their own preconceived notions.

You seemed to have missed this..

Home appreciation for the last 18 years in Georgetown Texas averaging 10.9%
Last two years 11.01% per year and last quarter 10.36%


But you didn't miss the boat! I invested in the 70's 80's 90's 00's and it's been all good. The point is, get in when you can! There's nothing magical about the past. Obviously if you didn't buy in 1990 you missed the annual 26.77% appreciation but don't let that stop you from the next 18 years of appreciation! Those are double digit appreciation rates that have nothing to do with leverage.

Not all of us have the luck or foresight or crystal balls to predict the future of neighborhoods with the accuracy that you seem to think we all should have.

I think with google earth, and an hour talk with a good local realtor I could pick the better appreciatine area in any American city and determine if it was coming or going. Pretty much anyone could do it if they looked at the real numbers and facts without distorting with their own preconceived notions.

As an example, the neighborhood I currently live in (and bought into 5 years ago) is a solid working class neighborhood and very "multiculural" (read: a victim of white flight). I used to live in this same neighborhood 25 years ago, and in talking with my parents last night, they were shocked to find out that home values were so low here. 25 years ago, this neighborhood was one of the top neighborhoods in the metro area, the kind of place that doctors and lawyers lived. If you bought into this neighborhood 25 years ago expecting outsized returns for buying into the hottest neighborhood, you would be sorely dissappointed today (well, you would have moved years ago because the character of the neighborhood is totally different than it was 25 yrs ago).

Again you’ve made my point and yet you bought there 5 years ago?

Since 1984, when the previous owners purchased my current house, the price has gone up just a hair under 3% a year. That is below inflation, by the way. That's the kind of returns you get for investing in the hottest area??

It is just like investing in the stock market in many ways. If you miss the huge run up in prices and get in after the money has been made, you are too late.


See above.
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 01:35 PM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Honobob, with over 800 posts on this forum it seems a shame you haven't been able to master using quotations. Makes it very difficult for the two or three people who read your posts to follow along.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 01:45 PM   #106
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Honobob, with over 800 posts on this forum it seems a shame you haven't been able to master using quotations. Makes it very difficult for the two or three people who read your posts to follow along.
Actually I had under the old program but it's baffled me since we went "new and improved". If I'd known there were that many people reading I'd made more of an effort but presumed I was writing more for my own entertainment. I CAN do individual quotes but alas the multiple quote has been my cross to bear. A PM or public tutorial would be appreciated! Appreciated, get it?.

remember, I'm the guilty guy that didn't know Galt was gone.

On a side note, Are you associating higher post count with intelligence? I believe I have contrary proof.
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 01:53 PM   #107
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
Quote from Fuego: "As an example, the neighborhood I currently live in (and bought into 5 years ago) is a solid working class neighborhood and very "multiculural" (read: a victim of white flight). I used to live in this same neighborhood 25 years ago, and in talking with my parents last night, they were shocked to find out that home values were so low here. 25 years ago, this neighborhood was one of the top neighborhoods in the metro area, the kind of place that doctors and lawyers lived. If you bought into this neighborhood 25 years ago expecting outsized returns for buying into the hottest neighborhood, you would be sorely dissappointed today (well, you would have moved years ago because the character of the neighborhood is totally different than it was 25 yrs ago)."

Again you’ve made my point and yet you bought there 5 years ago?
I'm not sure what point I was making for you. I bought the house 5 years ago at auction way below "market" value just before the city spent $2 million on a lake revitalization project in my backyard. It is convenient for me for places that I shop, where I work, and family, and it has appreciated fairly well. But the appreciation is due to the fact that I bought it at a stupid cheap price and put a tiny bit of fixerupper in it. Otherwise I'd be sitting on 3-4% gains per year. It was formerly in the absolute worst base school area (the local elementary school was number 131 of 131). It got so bad that now we're getting some race-based busing going and pumping the rich white kids from the burbs in here, so next year it will probably be one of the top 10% of schools. I can't imagine that will harm my property value much.

In 10-20 years, I may see astronomical appreciation if my area gentrifies like other similarly situated neighborhoods have nearby over the last couple decades. Or I may see inflationary appreciation or less if the n'hood stays the same or gets worse.

In the meantime, my house provides a place for me and my family to live with a mortgage that is 1/10 of our gross income and only has 9.5 years left on the 10 year note. The house is a very small part of my financial plan and it doubling in value won't really affect my goals much, since I don't plan on selling it any time soon.
__________________
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 01:55 PM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Using Quotes
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 03:34 PM   #109
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Give a man a fish........

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
Honobob, you are clearly cherrypicking the best neighborhoods and showing how great things would have been if you had only invested years ago (with leverage!!).
Yikes!

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post

It is just like investing in the stock market in many ways. If you miss the huge run up in prices and get in after the money has been made, you are too late.
We may have created a monster!

Thanks REWahoo! Now how do you quote multiple people?
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 03:46 PM   #110
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Use the search button and you'll be amazed at what you might find...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 03:53 PM   #111
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
Give a man a fish........
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Use the search button and you'll be amazed at what you might find...
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I'm really not that much into fishing..........gotta a beer?
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 03:54 PM   #112
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Nope...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 04:09 PM   #113
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Bait my hook?
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-30-2008, 08:35 PM   #114
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 354
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
NYC has been around 10% over the last 25-30 years

what this means is that RE will double or triple in a 5-7 year period and then drop by 30% to 50% and then remain flat for a few more years. repeat.

i've talked to people that bought in the late 1980's or 1990 and were upside down for a long time. and i've seen people that bought at the bottom of the cycle and paid off their home in a few years.
There is also a huge disparity between different neighborhoods. We bought into a gentrifying neighborhood in Queens in July 2000, sold in May 2003. We paid 118.5k for our co-op, sold for 260k. We probably put about 10k + a lot of sweat equity into renovations, inlcluding all new windows, professional refinishing of the floors, and my husband redoing most of the walls (replastering and painting). The people who bought it from us sold it in September 2005 for 545k -- they did some additional remodeling including a new kitchen (old one was pretty much the original from 1918...). Our downstairs neighbors, whose apartment was the same layout as ours but really beautifully renovated (he was a contractor), sold September 2007 for 649k -- they had purchased for 125k in 1999, and done a total gut renovation. I think that was probably the peak of the bubble in that neighborhood. The first floor apartment (which was a mess and probably in need of a gut renovation) sold in Feb 2008 for 352k -- looks like it sold to one of the more prominent real estate agents in the neighborhood, who is probably going to try to flip it.

This neighborhood has had its ups and downs (was a major drug trade center in the 80s), but it has very good "bones" including lots of good, fairly large pre-war housing stock (landmark district), reasonable commute to midtown (main subway station newly renovated a couple of years ago), and a very vibrant, multi-ethnic population. People who bought in our building in the early 90s were upside down for awhile as values in the neighborhood dropped due to a glut of condo conversions. But they more than made out in this latest cycle. I can't see the values going back down to what they were even when we bought. If they drop the 30-50% from the peak, that is still much more than they cost for most the people who bought in during the upswing.

So if you can luck out and find a gentrifying neighborhood in a major metropolitan market, I think you can still do very well. Look for those key elements (good housing stock, good access to public transit, and general convenience of life) and I think you probably can't go wrong in a long-term investment. I am keeping my eye on the Seattle market (where my family is from and where we eventually might want to return to) in hopes that we might find something to buy while things are down.

lhamo
__________________
lhamo is offline   Reply With Quote
Texas has 5 cities in top 20 appreciating markets!
Old 06-08-2009, 05:49 PM   #115
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Texas has 5 cities in top 20 appreciating markets!

2009 Update! Corpus Christi 6% over the last 5 years and HOUSTON over 5% annual appreciation.

20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions
with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation
Percent Change in House Prices with MSA Rankings
Period Ended March 31, 2009
(Estimates use all-transactions HPI which includes purchase and refinance mortgages)
Note that purchase-only indexes, which omit appraisal values, are available for select metro areas at
http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=87.
MSA
National
Ranking** 1-Yr. Qtr. 5-Yr.
Corpus Christi, TX 1 4.12 3.05 29.31
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2 3.83 0.91 26.36

Quote:
Originally Posted by eridanus View Post
No one could have looked at Houston home prices in the late 80s and predicted a negative rate of return over the next 20 years. It happened though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
REWahoo, you got some 'splaining to do!

Home appreciation for the last 18 years in Georgetown Texas averaging 10.9%

Last two years 11.01% per year and last quarter 10.36%

Annual appreciation since 1990
Austin 9.9%
Cedar Park 9.56%
Round Rock 9.16%
Longview 10.89%

YeeHaw!

4% Appreciation My *ss or the Texas version 4% Appreciation, BullSh*t!


Georgetown house prices and rental information - Neighborhood Scout
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
"Uh, we live in Texas" also means "we didn't participate in the bubble, so nothing is popping here."
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
Honobob, you are clearly cherrypicking the best neighborhoods and showing how great things would have been if you had only invested years ago (with leverage!!).
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
Did it?
According to neighborhoodscout.com Houston appreciated 5.83% per year since 1990, 6.89% over the last 10 years, 5.31% over the last 5 years, 5.63% over the last 2, 4.46% over the last 12 months and up to 5.09% over the last quarter!

So the mean is maybe mid 5%?

But Houston is a big diversified place. Honobob ALWAYS suggests buying in established NBHD's like Leeland/Bastrop. 72% of housing between $73,000 and $147,000. AND an annual appreciation rate of 23.47% each and every year over the last 18 years!!
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2009, 05:55 PM   #116
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
2009 Update! Corpus Christi 6% over the last 5 years and HOUSTON over 5% annual appreciation.

MSA
National
Ranking** 1-Yr. Qtr. 5-Yr.
Corpus Christi, TX 1 4.12 3.05 29.31
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2 3.83 0.91 26.36
And you'd still be down if you bought in 1986.
__________________
eridanus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2009, 06:13 PM   #117
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Quote:
72% of housing between $73,000 and $147,000. AND an annual appreciation rate of 23.47% each and every year over the last 18 years!!
If you do the math with this appreciation rate, a $73,000 house would have been valued at $2,000 18 years ago (1991). Your $147,000 house would have been valued at $4,100.

I realize you are a west coast/HI dweller and aren't familiar with TX real estate prices, but I can assure you nothing that passes for a "house" could be purchased in 1991 for those prices. Not even in Texas.

Your numbers simply don't hold water.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2009, 06:23 PM   #118
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,526
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
If you do the math with this appreciation rate, a $73,000 house would have been valued at $2,000 18 years ago (1991). Your $147,000 house would have been valued at $4,100.

I realize you are a west coast/HI dweller and aren't familiar with TX real estate prices, but I can assure you nothing that passes for a "house" could be purchased in 1991 for those prices. Not even in Texas.

Your numbers simply don't hold water.
I see you are an administrator hence can't put honobob on your ignore list. Another sacrifice you have to make when you are in power I guess...
__________________
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2009, 06:26 PM   #119
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post

Your numbers simply don't hold water.
They're not my numbers. And the most recent numbers are from the federal government.
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2009, 06:30 PM   #120
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob View Post
They're not my numbers. And the most recent numbers are from the federal government.
I couldn't get your link to work or find the data you quoted. Can you give us a specific location/page where the information is located onhttp://www.fhfa.gov?
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Real Estate - what should we do? cj Life after FIRE 50 12-17-2007 12:01 AM
Real Estate Agent in Down Real Estate Market TromboneAl Other topics 4 06-09-2007 11:20 AM
2% Real Rate of Return on FI? lbymfire FIRE and Money 4 06-07-2006 07:25 AM
Real Estate mangodance FIRE and Money 12 06-27-2005 09:36 AM
International Real Estate GTM Life after FIRE 16 11-04-2004 04:13 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:03 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.