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Old 07-14-2008, 07:31 PM   #41
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:35 PM   #42
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:42 PM   #43
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:50 PM   #44
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Wouldn't it be great if the anchorperson on CNBC, the next time this guy comes on to shill his next book, "accidentally" displayed this one instead? "Ooops, my bad, by the way, what happened with this prediction?"
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Old 07-14-2008, 07:55 PM   #45
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Yeah, I just had to throw that in there! he he he

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Old 07-14-2008, 08:40 PM   #46
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http://i36.tinypic.com/b8x0me.jpg
Dang, I had the title wrong. Thanks!
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:16 PM   #47
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De nada.
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:19 PM   #48
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Looks like 09 will be the year. Massive bank asset auctions to liquidate the REOs and OREOs. Save your pennies, it'll be one of the best real estate opportuinties in our life time.
It's getting there already. My realtor is showing me properties that rent for $800/month but sells for $59k.
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:23 PM   #49
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[QUOTE=Retire Soon;682979]
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Considering that Fannie and Freddie were intially created by the US government in order to foster a liquid mortgage market and enable average Joe to buy a home, it would be ridiculous for the same government to stand by and do nothing while these companies faltered and became impaired to continue to issue mortgage backed notes.

Fannie and Freddie were initially created to enable average Joe to reach the All American dream of home ownership. Here lies the problem. Many of the people who obtained home financing over the past few years were far from being average Joe's. How can one justify placing someone in a $600,000 McMansion with a zero down payment on "stated income." Today the federal government is asking the taxpayers to pick up the tab for what initially started as a noble system to enable the average Joe to become a homeowner, but later included people with bad credit, no savings, poor w*rk history, who probably could not have even afford to rent the house they were encouraged to purchase.
$600k and 0% down were not conforming loans, and even now with the expanded limit, it's still not a loan that Fannie and Freddie can package.
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:56 PM   #50
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Fannie/Freddie:

The Fannie / Freddie Bailout: Necessary, But Don't Expect a Happy Ending - Seeking Alpha

The sky has fallen
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:59 PM   #51
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I wonder what happens when this malaise spreads beyond the banks and hits all those annuity writing insurance companies.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:02 PM   #52
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I wonder what happens when this malaise spreads beyond the banks and hits all those annuity writing insurance companies.
I wouldn't buy an annuity for a year or two because that is a great point.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:03 PM   #53
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:03 PM   #54
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I think this is a stock panic, and nothing more, and represents a rare opportunity for a discerning buyer. More and nore it feels like late summer 1974, good stocks falling day after day. Then it ended, and Ka-Boom! off to the races.

Be sure you have a seat on this rocket before she lights off. Hey, I might even get to visit my gal Amanda en Suiza when this one plays out.

Ha
We have a very long way to go to equal the decline of 1974. In 1974 the PE of the DJIA was 5.8. REIT were among the very biggest losers as 19 of the 20 worst decliners in 1974 were REITS with an average decline of 87 percent. The Value Line Composite Index, a measure of how far the average stock had fallen as it is not capitalization based fell 75 percent. The average stock would have to fall another 50 percent to equal the 1973-1974 bear market.

The uptick in the market was fueled by 4 cuts in the prime rate in January of 1975. January 1975 was the best month at that time in 40 yeas, by the end of the year the Dow was up 38 percent. London's FT Index in 1974 doubled in 39 trading days. The main beneficiaries of 1974 were the retailers. 1975 was followed by an additional 18 percent gain in the Dow in 1976 late 1975 and 1976 were led by the auto stocks.

To me we are presently correlated more closely with 1973 when foreign commodity purchasing (Russia at that time) caused a inflation demand for commodities. Inflation began to increase doubling from 2 years prior up to 6 percent in 1973 from 3 percent in 1972, 1974 was 10.98. 1973 saw a decline of the Dow of 25 percent offset by a year end rally to end down 17 percent on the year.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:04 PM   #55
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I wouldn't buy an annuity for a year or two because that is a great point.
But what if they fail right after you buy one?

I mean, just a few years ago freddie and fannie were considered great investments.

And holy cow, just a few months ago people were excited about the great rates at indymac!

Last year a whole bunch of really smart people thought that sallie mae bonds were the bomb. Well, they were actually.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:08 PM   #56
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RM, We hope you are right. I can't wait for the 4 cuts in the prime rate....oh, didn't that cause the housing bubble...
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:11 PM   #57
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But what if they fail right after you buy one?
I'd be toast but I'm going to assume a lesson has been learned, foolish as that might be.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:26 PM   #58
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But what if they fail right after you buy one?
I'm not saying anything or anything, but I wouldn't touch an annuity from any company with a 11' insulated pole.

I hear that a company around here terminated a bunch of questionable agents with cause a while ago. Most of those agents are now working at another very large company and selling the wrong products again.

I hear a company that was pretty large in the field is projected to be down about 40% on sales this year versus 2004. And their parent company isn't in the top 10 biggest global companies any more.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:45 PM   #59
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There was an article recently, and I can't find it now to attribute it, that was talking about it being well known inside the insurance companies that if their investment assumption don't pan out they will end up having to short change a large number of their annuities. In the future, not now. They said that there was small print in the contracts that would allow them to decrease the payout, even though they are marketed as guaranteed. The haven't been any examples in the US yet, but there was a big one in the UK.

Anybody know anything about this? I'm not a big fan of annuities myself, but I'm trying to learn more.

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Old 07-15-2008, 07:33 AM   #60
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i used to have a Whole Life policy that i got as a gift 15 years ago. i remember reading through the contract after the salesman dropped it off and it basically said the same thing. we think you will have this much in so many years, but it's not 100%
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