The toll so far - 3 extra years of work.

Grep · 10-09-2008, 01:50 PM

When I wrote my "Hi, I am" post just 2 long, long, long months ago, my portfolio was down just a little - maybe 2% or so. I had been closing in on FIRE, which could have been a few months away. Now my portfolio is down much more: 15% or so. Of course, most of you share this pain, or worse.

I just ran some numbers to calculate how long I would have to work to make up for this drop. I don't mean saving enough to compensate (that's almost impossible at this point in my life), but a combination of savings, better pension numbers and a few less years of withdrawal. It came to 3 years of extra work (and rising) to maintain the same spending levels.

I do have substantial cash-equivalent savings that could sustain me for a decade or two. In 3 years the markets may substantially recover, but of course we could be in for a longer, harder road too.

It's futile to think about what might have been, but I do feel a bit of irony that I had recently moved from an almost absurdly defensive position (due to pre-tenure uncertainties) to a much more balanced position, right on the eve of this brutal market. My rationale for doing so was the newly-enhanced security of my job. Now the latter is quite welcome.

I had the ability to take risk, I had the willingness to do so, but I lacked the obvious need to do so. I don't suppose the third is a deal-breaker, and one could argue that I wasn't in a position to withstand 30-40 years of inflation without being in the game. But my old ways had worked for me. Alas, they would have continued to work very well for me for an extra 6-12 months!

I could still retire early, but a few more years seems in the cards at the moment. I had been struggling to come to this conclusion anyway, and so maybe this difficult period will make that choice a bit easier. It did seem a bit absurd to toss aside the privileges of tenure so soon after winning that battle. And who knows, everything could turn around soon, too!

Cheers.

ziggy29 · 10-09-2008, 02:03 PM

And here comes the last hour of trading. Bend over.

FIREdreamer · 10-09-2008, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

And here comes the last hour of trading. Bend over.

Good call. The Dow had been benignly down all day and it has now plunged 280 points...

ziggy29 · 10-09-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer

Good call. The Dow had been benignly down all day and it has now plunged 280 points...

It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.

FIREdreamer · 10-09-2008, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.

Yep...

The DOW is now back to July 2003 levels...

Sorry Grep, it looks like you (and I) just delayed ER by a few more months today...

ikubak · 10-09-2008, 02:25 PM

Fall of 2008, when every day feels like capitulation day!

Marquette · 10-09-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.

Well, we can keep that from happening. Sell puts on the sun setting in the west and it'll surely set in the east. You're the all-powerful Ziggy after all.

ziggy29 · 10-09-2008, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marquette

Well, we can keep that from happening. Sell puts on the sun setting in the west and it'll surely set in the east. You're the all-powerful Ziggy after all.

Good point. And stop calling me Shirley.

Grep · 10-09-2008, 03:19 PM

... Make that 4 years.

10-09-2008, 01:50 PM	#1
Grep Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 100	The toll so far - 3 extra years of work. When I wrote my "Hi, I am" post just 2 long, long, long months ago, my portfolio was down just a little - maybe 2% or so. I had been closing in on FIRE, which could have been a few months away. Now my portfolio is down much more: 15% or so. Of course, most of you share this pain, or worse. I just ran some numbers to calculate how long I would have to work to make up for this drop. I don't mean saving enough to compensate (that's almost impossible at this point in my life), but a combination of savings, better pension numbers and a few less years of withdrawal. It came to 3 years of extra work (and rising) to maintain the same spending levels. I do have substantial cash-equivalent savings that could sustain me for a decade or two. In 3 years the markets may substantially recover, but of course we could be in for a longer, harder road too. It's futile to think about what might have been, but I do feel a bit of irony that I had recently moved from an almost absurdly defensive position (due to pre-tenure uncertainties) to a much more balanced position, right on the eve of this brutal market. My rationale for doing so was the newly-enhanced security of my job. Now the latter is quite welcome. I had the ability to take risk, I had the willingness to do so, but I lacked the obvious need to do so. I don't suppose the third is a deal-breaker, and one could argue that I wasn't in a position to withstand 30-40 years of inflation without being in the game. But my old ways had worked for me. Alas, they would have continued to work very well for me for an extra 6-12 months! I could still retire early, but a few more years seems in the cards at the moment. I had been struggling to come to this conclusion anyway, and so maybe this difficult period will make that choice a bit easier. It did seem a bit absurd to toss aside the privileges of tenure so soon after winning that battle. And who knows, everything could turn around soon, too! Cheers.

10-09-2008, 02:03 PM	#2
ziggy29 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Texas Hill Country Posts: 2,377	And here comes the last hour of trading. Bend over. __________________ FIRE Clock: Retired. Since it feels like I'll never be now. waiting for the government to privatize the gains and socialize my losses in my 401K...

10-09-2008, 02:25 PM	#6
ikubak Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 105	Fall of 2008, when every day feels like capitulation day! __________________ Silent gratitude isn't much use to anyone.

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Death toll and Energy Source	Sam	Other topics	44	09-01-2007 10:13 AM
"Baby Boomers Will Spend their Golden Years At Work"	windsurf	Other topics	5	08-10-2007 03:28 AM
Going Back to Work for Two Years	TromboneAl	Other topics	9	04-02-2007 03:15 PM
Business Week: "The Golden Years -- At Work?"	Nords	FIRE and Money	18	06-05-2006 07:38 AM
Will this work- Retire in 5 years	Foodeefish	Young Dreamers	9	12-19-2005 12:00 PM

10-09-2008, 03:19 PM	#9
Grep Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 100	... Make that 4 years.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)