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The toll so far - 3 extra years of work.
10-09-2008, 12:50 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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The toll so far - 3 extra years of work.
When I wrote my "Hi, I am" post just 2 long, long, long months ago, my portfolio was down just a little - maybe 2% or so. I had been closing in on FIRE, which could have been a few months away. Now my portfolio is down much more: 15% or so. Of course, most of you share this pain, or worse.
I just ran some numbers to calculate how long I would have to work to make up for this drop. I don't mean saving enough to compensate (that's almost impossible at this point in my life), but a combination of savings, better pension numbers and a few less years of withdrawal. It came to 3 years of extra work (and rising) to maintain the same spending levels.
I do have substantial cash-equivalent savings that could sustain me for a decade or two. In 3 years the markets may substantially recover, but of course we could be in for a longer, harder road too.
It's futile to think about what might have been, but I do feel a bit of irony that I had recently moved from an almost absurdly defensive position (due to pre-tenure uncertainties) to a much more balanced position, right on the eve of this brutal market. My rationale for doing so was the newly-enhanced security of my job. Now the latter is quite welcome.
I had the ability to take risk, I had the willingness to do so, but I lacked the obvious need to do so. I don't suppose the third is a deal-breaker, and one could argue that I wasn't in a position to withstand 30-40 years of inflation without being in the game. But my old ways had worked for me. Alas, they would have continued to work very well for me for an extra 6-12 months!
I could still retire early, but a few more years seems in the cards at the moment. I had been struggling to come to this conclusion anyway, and so maybe this difficult period will make that choice a bit easier. It did seem a bit absurd to toss aside the privileges of tenure so soon after winning that battle. And who knows, everything could turn around soon, too!
Cheers.
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10-09-2008, 01:03 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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And here comes the last hour of trading. Bend over.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-09-2008, 01:06 PM
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#3
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
And here comes the last hour of trading. Bend over.
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Good call. The Dow had been benignly down all day and it has now plunged 280 points...
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10-09-2008, 01:07 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Good call. The Dow had been benignly down all day and it has now plunged 280 points...
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It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-09-2008, 01:11 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,890
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.
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Yep... The DOW is now back to July 2003 levels... Sorry Grep, it looks like you (and I) just delayed ER by a few more months today...
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10-09-2008, 01:25 PM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 482
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Fall of 2008, when every day feels like capitulation day!
__________________
Retire date Jan. 10, 2018
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10-09-2008, 01:30 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
It's about as good a call as proclaiming that the sun will set in the west tonight.
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Well, we can keep that from happening. Sell puts on the sun setting in the west and it'll surely set in the east. You're the all-powerful Ziggy after all.
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10-09-2008, 01:32 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marquette
Well, we can keep that from happening. Sell puts on the sun setting in the west and it'll surely set in the east. You're the all-powerful Ziggy after all.
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Good point. And stop calling me Shirley.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-09-2008, 02:19 PM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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... Make that 4 years.
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