Originally Posted by Dash man
The longer you live the greater your chance of dying. Eventually it's got to happen...
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
So imagine if Firecalc had a line that just showed "chance of death" based on your age/gender as a similar series of lines
. So then you'd have a range of monetary outcomes against a range of "non monetary" outcomes.
95% chance that you wont run out of money vs. running out of money
is very different than
95% chance that you wont run out of money vs. a 1% chance you'll die vs a 1.5% chance you'll die.
So if OMY increases my safety by 1% (99% to 100%) but increases my chance of dying by 10% (i.e. from 24/1000 to 26/1000) that's very different than if OMY increases financial safety by 10% (85% to 93%) with the same increase to death rate.
I'd probably take the 10% increase in financial safety against the small increase in death rate but the 1% increase seems less obvious. When you're at 100%... well... it really starts to become a bit nutty :P.
Of course this is an "all things being equal" scenario. And they never are. A person who hates his 80hr/week job and desperately wants to spend time with his family is not equal on this graph to a person who loves his job and would lose his mind at home. But then... we use firecalc a ton, and it's not an "all things being equal" measure either... it's just one (albeit very important and more objective) way of measuring an element of FIRE.