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04-02-2015, 07:38 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 437
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This chart scares me.
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04-02-2015, 07:51 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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How about a hint of what we'll see if we click on your blind link.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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04-02-2015, 08:11 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,202
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Yeah, and a little better hint in the thread title is nice too.
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04-02-2015, 08:17 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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If I read it well, it basically says that with increasing passively managed money market volatility will go up, as well as the correlation between funds.
I think the last one is correct, not sure about the first one.
Also think however that we are a long way from big effects since most actively managed funds behave more like passively managed funds anyway (index huggers). So all one does is remove management fees from the equation and be more upfront about expectations. If anything, this might decrease volatility (fewer people run in a downturn if they expect one to happen).
Unless you are scared by the huge overall inflows in the stock exchange?
Yeah, it will lead to a correction. That's the game, was bound to happen. This year looks like it will shape up to be flat in USD, so no big thunderstorm yet. It will come though, inevitably.
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04-02-2015, 08:37 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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I have no idea what the author point even is, maybe I'm stupid.
The chart from M* shows ~150 billion in inflows to passive managed stock and bond funds for the entire US fund industry, that fact matches what ICI claims. This isn't just Vanguard funds it's all fund companies. In 2000 there were 271 index funds in the US. In 2013 that number is 372(according to ICI). Are these all Vanguard funds, no, I have no idea what point the author is making. He seems to believe Vanguard is the only provider of index funds. Since he's misinterpreted the data from the start, I can't understand his point, if he even has one.
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04-02-2015, 08:47 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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"This chart scares me."
Pffffttt. Now here's a scary chart:
__________________
Numbers is hard
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04-02-2015, 08:55 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
"This chart scares me."
Pffffttt. Now here's a scary chart:
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Looks like a fun slide down. What happens when you get to the bottom though?
Wheeeee!
__________________
Retired in 2013 at age 33. Keeping busy reading, blogging, relaxing, gaming, and enjoying the outdoors with my wife and 3 kids (8, 13, and 15).
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04-02-2015, 09:03 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
"This chart scares me."
Pffffttt. Now here's a scary chart:
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.. on the other hand -- Just keep on living and you'll never die!
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04-02-2015, 09:04 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,863
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
"This chart scares me."
Pffffttt. Now here's a scary chart:
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If I were to believe this chart, I should significantly increase my spend rate since I can't take it with me.
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04-02-2015, 09:07 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Les Bois
Posts: 5,761
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um, yeah guys that's how it works - looks like it's from an old mortality table tho
__________________
You can't be a retirement plan actuary without a retirement plan, otherwise you lose all credibility...
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04-02-2015, 09:14 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro
....snip....
Unless you are scared by the huge overall inflows in the stock exchange?
Yeah, it will lead to a correction. That's the game, was bound to happen. This year looks like it will shape up to be flat in USD, so no big thunderstorm yet. It will come though, inevitably.
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Thanks, if that's his point he sure took the back road to make it.
So there's gonna be a correction. Wow who woulda thunk that.
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04-02-2015, 09:23 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,171
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I'm not sure why one person's thoughts should be scary. Remember that the market is going to crash anyway as all we retiring baby boomers sell our stocks to get cash. DOWN, DOWN, DOWN... Guaranteed, right?
As far as thread titles go, I tend to avoid threads with titles such as "Help me with this!", "I would have never guessed" and "What happens now?". Specifics in the title and initial message usually will get more and better responses, IMHO. To each his own.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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04-02-2015, 09:52 AM
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#13
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro
If I read it well, it basically says that with increasing passively managed money market volatility will go up, as well as the correlation between funds.
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But most people will still underperform market because they will jump from index to index.
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04-02-2015, 10:01 AM
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#14
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Louisville
Posts: 601
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If you want to see a scary chart, check out the Shiller CAPE chart.
Shiller PE Ratio
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04-03-2015, 08:46 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
Looks like a fun slide down. What happens when you get to the bottom though?
Wheeeee!
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Prepare for another ride if you believe in re-incarnation.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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04-03-2015, 09:01 AM
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#16
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
"This chart scares me."
Pffffttt. Now here's a scary chart:
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Me too, and if we get a few more years like 2008 along the way, a significant deflection could impact the curve even more to one's longevity, especially since family long life genes will no longer help you.
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