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This Seems Weird..........
Old 10-08-2008, 10:38 AM   #1
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This Seems Weird..........

10/9/02: Dow closed at 7286.27

10/9/07: Dow closed at ALLTIME high of 14,164.53

Is it just me,or does it seem weird that it happened on the SAME day 5 years apart??
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:45 AM   #2
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Hmm, watch out for Thursday, 10/9/08....
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:48 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
10/9/02: Dow closed at 7286.27

10/9/07: Dow closed at ALLTIME high of 14,164.53
10/31/07: Ziggy29 ignores the voices in his head telling him to bail out of the stock market.
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:51 AM   #4
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But remember those are the same voices that said pick up that be-whiskered girl at the bar....never mind, that was CFB and Ha...

I gotta say that there is nothing more depressing than spending your days talking people off the ledges when you want to join them up there. I'd love to see them redo that poll of highest job satisfaction ratings right now, you know, the one that said financial advisers were real happy with their jobs?
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:54 AM   #5
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But remember those are the same voices that said pick up that be-whiskered girl at the bar....
No, that was the guy shaving his....well, never mind.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 10-08-2008, 10:55 AM   #6
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Oh, and thanks to CuppaJo on the mental status of FAs for this post from one of the million annuity threads (sad but at least this guy suddenly realized what he was selling was horrible):
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When Executive Life failed, my company was setting up an ESOP. A meeting was set up for employees to meet with the company’s financial planner. The meeting had been cancelled and put off a week or so because the financial planner who recommended Executive Life had committed suicide. The new FA said that he had been saying he couldn’t stand to have people look at him because he put so many into those annuities. Over the last year or so on this forum posters occasionally say things like,”it’s not so bad, people are not jumping out of windows”; but keep in mind people keep suicides private. There was a news story just last week about an unemployed FP who blew away his entire family, San Jose, I think, nice house.
Thanks, Cuppa, I for one am glad that a) we don't sell annuities and b) that ours is a one story building.
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:55 AM   #7
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Sarah, I can't even imagine the atmosphere around your office.

I think on ABC evening news last night (they all blend together after awhile), two institutional financial planners were interviewed--one said to stay the course, the other was refreshingly honest (not that the first one wasn't being honest) in saying she didn't have all the answers for people's individual situations and people had to do what they felt was best for them. The people who listened to her must be the people continuing to sell today.
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Old 10-08-2008, 10:58 AM   #8
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The people who listened to her must be the people continuing to sell today.
I wonder how much of this is individuals and how much of it is the hedgies continuing to deleverage.
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:07 AM   #9
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friday is the CDS auction for Lehman bonds and no one knows which banks will owe how much to who. rumor is banks are selling stock like mad to raise up to $1 trillion in cash to pay off the bonds
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:24 AM   #10
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Just caught a tail end of a comment by Neil C on FOX this morning. Something like a "short rule expires" tonight. I think it involves the Banks and Financial Institutions. Maybe someone could explain what that could mean.
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:37 AM   #11
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I wonder how much of this is individuals and how much of it is the hedgies continuing to deleverage.
There is a great deal of the latter going on! Also, lots of other things like options expiration, short sale rules to change, etc.

IMO - there is a whole lotta stuff going on that has nothing to do with fundamentals. We can only hope it doesn't go on so long that the fundamentals get a lot worse.

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Old 10-08-2008, 12:06 PM   #12
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10/9 will be a very low volume day. Could be some wild swings in the market.
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:16 PM   #13
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IMO - there is a whole lotta stuff going on that has nothing to do with fundamentals. We can only hope it doesn't go on so long that the fundamentals get a lot worse.
Audrey
Right now people are focusing on the macro economy and not company fundamentals.
I think there are other things playing into the decline.
- margin calls
- short selling
- liquidity problems - hedge funds?
- Strong dollar - foreigners don't buy
- FEAR
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Old 10-08-2008, 12:20 PM   #14
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Oh yeah - margin calls! Definitely margin calls! After each of these down 5%+ days you had better believe there were some serious margin calls.

Actually - I think the dollar is stronger because a) US companies are repatriating their assets (flight to quality) and b ) foreigners ARE also moving stuff to the US for the same reason. The US is perceived as ahead of the other countries on this crisis. The strengthening dollar is the one positive this juncture.

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Old 10-08-2008, 12:32 PM   #15
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Right now people are focusing on the macro economy and not company fundamentals.
I think there are other things playing into the decline.
- margin calls
- short selling
- liquidity problems - hedge funds?
- Strong dollar - foreigners don't buy
- FEAR
I suspect institutions must be going full throttle with sell programs every time the indices briefly turn green. They get just above flatline very briefly and then *wham*, down sharply again in a matter of minutes.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:43 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
10/9/02: Dow closed at 7286.27

10/9/07: Dow closed at ALLTIME high of 14,164.53

Is it just me,or does it seem weird that it happened on the SAME day 5 years apart??
djia closes above the 1,000 mark 11/14/72 (1,003.16)
djia closes above the 6,000 mark 10/14/96 (6,010.00)

djia closes above the 12,000 mark 10/19/06 (12,011.73
djia closes above the 14,000 mark 07/19/07 (14,000.41)

djia closes above certain marks on dates divisible by 3:
5k on 11/21/95
9k on 05/06/98
11k on 05/03/99

03 06 09 14 19 21

ok then, got my lottery numbers for the week. thank you.
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:55 PM   #17
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Anyone know the day that companies have to cover shorts by? Was it today?
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:56 PM   #18
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Oh yeah - margin calls! Definitely margin calls! After each of these down 5%+ days you had better believe there were some serious margin calls.

Actually - I think the dollar is stronger because a) US companies are repatriating their assets (flight to quality) and b ) foreigners ARE also moving stuff to the US for the same reason. The US is perceived as ahead of the other countries on this crisis. The strengthening dollar is the one positive this juncture.

Audrey
I agree Audrey.

See the latest edition of The Economist and this article about Japanese investment -- specifically mergers and acquisitions.

Japan's overseas M&A spree | The Japanese are coming (again) | The Economist

"This wave of deals follows two previous forays overseas. In the late 1980s Japanese firms raced after foreign real estate, and in the late 1990s they piled into technology companies (see chart). Both binges ended badly, as companies sold their stakes at a loss and bolted for home. But things could be different this time. Instead of trophy assets such as Rockefeller Center or Pebble Beach golf course, the targets are companies that fit strategically with their acquirers, providing new technology or access to new markets.
Japanese firms can afford to be so acquisitive because, unlike companies elsewhere, they are flush with cash. Thanks to conservative managers and years of record profits, Japanese public companies are sitting on cash reserves of more than ¥60 trillion, estimates Nikkei, a financial-news company. At home, companies face a slowing economy, a cultural aversion to takeovers and an ageing and declining population. “They are pampered in cash. But they can’t invest in Japan—so they go abroad,” explains Shoichi Niwa of Recof Data, an M&A advisory firm."
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Old 10-08-2008, 01:58 PM   #19
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Anyone know the day that companies have to cover shorts by? Was it today?
The ban on shorting the list of 900-something financials ends at 11:59 PM tonight.
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RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:00 PM   #20
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Just caught a tail end of a comment by Neil C on FOX this morning. Something like a "short rule expires" tonight. I think it involves the Banks and Financial Institutions. Maybe someone could explain what that could mean.
You'll need to understand what short-selling is first - do a google search on it if you don't know what it is. The SEC has prevented people from shorting financial stocks (and some other strange candidates -- IBM) since the middle of September. It was a lame attempt by the SEC (not much lamer than everything the FED has tried though), to stem the downward spiral of the financial stocks and thus the market. I would guess that re-instituting the short rule will have no immediate effect, and possibly a positive effect in a few weeks. . . IF . . . they can resist changing the rules again that long (which I doubt).
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