Thoughts on investing in current market climate

[al_bundy]

might have us a reversal in the last 15 minutes

looks like an inverse head and shoulders on the sp500 and nasdaq

 

[FinanceDude]

i personally think these target funds are a scam to keep the boomers money longer and keep collecting fees

for 30 years the financial media told us to rebalance into bonds as we get older. of course the stock fund people don't want to lose the fees, so they make up these target retirement funds

Are you including Vanguard in that thought, because they're the biggest player in that market.......

FWIW,you can use ETF's to do a target fund yourself, and almost as cheap.........

 

[innova]

Lots of laughs today people

the point of the funds is to keep you in one fund for life rather than rebalancing into different asset classes and different funds and keep you paying expense ratios into that fund

FWIW,you can use ETF's to do a target fund yourself, and almost as cheap

al - Have you ever looked at the holdings of TR funds? Thats kind of the point, to keep you in one fund for life... ie - don't mess with it, don't market time, its intended for hands-off people who would otherwise get raked over by their greedy commission-based FA.

Your complaint about not rebalancing into different asset classes may make some believe you have no idea what a TR fund is made of (different asset classes?).

looks like an inverse head and shoulders on the sp500 and nasdaq

No predicative value whatsoever. You cannot predict the future by looking at past price movements. This has been debunked so many times and yet we still have chartists out there (hope springs eternal).

The market timers here are always good for a laugh with their doom and gloom. Perhaps a little history lesson may make some feel better. Recall in the early 1990s how bad things were, with many of the pundits at the time saying the market was overvalued, due for a huge correction, we should be all in cash, etc.

What happened? The biggest bull run of the century.

Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

 

[RockOn]

Lots of laughs today people
Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

I always wonder, why are those who do not believe in market timing so sure it is wrong to try it. I've read all the studies, etc., but I think there are people out there that have made a lot of money market timing. I made quite a bit of money doing it myself, riding short term waves, jumping in and out. I took very little risk and was lucky (?) enough to quit when it no longer worked (the trendiness vanished). Trading markets in solid trends is not impossible.

An example is the Kirk blog. He has done very well for years, check out his record. He may not be able to do it forever, but he could quit right now and he'd be ahead of anyone buying and holding. The odds may be against you, but it is not impossible in my opinion.

Has anyone else made any money trading? I say give market timers a break. The odds may be against them but they can operate under a much less risky senario than the buy and holders which is why they do it. Some win, and probably more lose, but 100% do not lose.

P.S. I just looked up the Kirk record, around 25% a year for 8 years, I believe all of that was fully trackable on his site.

 

[al_bundy]

they teach at business schools, good enough for me

and it was originally pioneered by a nobody named Charles Dow

 

[al_bundy]

Lots of laughs today people




al - Have you ever looked at the holdings of TR funds? Thats kind of the point, to keep you in one fund for life... ie - don't mess with it, don't market time, its intended for hands-off people who would otherwise get raked over by their greedy commission-based FA.

Your complaint about not rebalancing into different asset classes may make some believe you have no idea what a TR fund is made of (different asset classes?).



No predicative value whatsoever. You cannot predict the future by looking at past price movements. This has been debunked so many times and yet we still have chartists out there (hope springs eternal).

The market timers here are always good for a laugh with their doom and gloom. Perhaps a little history lesson may make some feel better. Recall in the early 1990s how bad things were, with many of the pundits at the time saying the market was overvalued, due for a huge correction, we should be all in cash, etc.

What happened? The biggest bull run of the century.

Sorry, but no matter how informed you think you are the odds are against you succeeding by market timing.

saved me some cash by keeping me from buying qid today

i know a devout buy and holder, kind of sad to see him lose a lot of money several years ago holding junk while he kept faith that it would come back

and FA's are for morons

 

[Art G]

Looks to me like QID hits resistance around $60.64. JMO.

 

[Patrick]

Looks to me like QID hits resistance around $60.64. JMO.

Are you using technical analysis for this conclusion?

 

[Art G]

Are you using technical analysis for this conclusion?

Ayep.

 

[FinanceDude]

Lots of laughs today people

Your post made me chuckle.........

I for one think the old "myth" that you should be more and more into bonds as you get older should be thrown out the window in lieu of people living longer and longer. Do YOU really want to be 65-70% in BONDs when you are 75? I know I don't............

 

[Patrick]

Ayep.

K, well there's still $5 to go before that. So jump in. It's up almost 2% today already.

 

[Patrick]

Lots of laughs today people

Recall in the early 1990s how bad things were, with many of the pundits at the time saying the market was overvalued, due for a huge correction, we should be all in cash, etc.

What happened? The biggest bull run of the century.

Recall the late 1990s tech bubble when the NASDAQ hit an alltime high and everyone thought it would keep going up?

What happened? A huge crash that it still hasn't recovered from.

 

[al_bundy]

Looks to me like QID hits resistance around $60.64. JMO.

it's going to the moon baby, to the moon

edit, that's what i get for being too greedy and trying to get in at $53.50 yesterday. broke down and finally bought it today.

woot to etrade for giving me a $.05 discount off the Yahoo streaming quote price

 

[al_bundy]

ha ha

gasparino strikes again

 

[Patrick]

ha ha

gasparino strikes again

who dat?

 

[al_bundy]

forgot his first name, but he is a business reporter for the NY Times. writes good stuff and he's been doing work for CNBC lately.

week or two ago on a friday afternoon he reported that ambac is close to a bailout. caused the market to rally. around 3:30 today he said the bailout negotiations were progressing well

 

[Razor]

Recall the late 1990s tech bubble when the NASDAQ hit an alltime high and everyone thought it would keep going up?

What happened? A huge crash that it still hasn't recovered from.

Sometimes it's better to ignore things that don't support the theory that the market always goes up.

 

[Gazingus]

My sheet is red-getting- redder, but I'm only concentrating on number of shares. All Motley Fool-recommended equities in Stock Advisor and Global Gains. I'm putting every nickel I can find into the biggest losers I have. I can't help it, I'm a bull market baby and I think it's a big sale!

 

[unclemick]

1966-1969. Read 'The Battle For Investment Survival'(Loeb), Dean Witter Broker.

My stock picking/trading got me a Penthouse apartment, a new rag top sports car, a few dirty Blonds. Then I lost the knack.

Luckily I escaped marriage - and the one two punch of Ben Graham's 4th ed(1973?) and Bogle's 500Index(1976?) came later.

I never got married but I did have the same girlfriend for 29 yrs and I do putz 'with a few good stocks' from time to time.

BTW - TR2015 is too new for a track record but Vanguard's portfolio predictor(based on historical data) estimates slightly over 9%.

heh heh heh - have fun I do - but my serious money is Target Retirement - after forty years of practice. Hope springs eternal every generation. Google up Bernstein's 15 Stock Diversification Myth if you wish to SWAG your odds - if you know when to hold em and when to fold em - you 'may' win - the odds are against you - but better than most lotteries!

 

[accountingsucks]

I have 20 years of saving before retiring, so like others I see this as a buying opportunity. Having said that, I do worry that what happened in Japan could happen over in North America (20 years with virtually no stock growth). I don't think that is likely at all, but it's something I do think about.

 

[haha]

I have 20 years of saving before retiring, so like others I see this as a buying opportunity. Having said that, I do worry that what happened in Japan could happen over in North America (20 years with virtually no stock growth). I don't think that is likely at all, but it's something I do think about.

It is really much worse than that. Year-end 1989 the Nikkei 225 closed just shy of 40,000. It closed today just shy of 13,000. So after 19 years, that index is still down by 2/3 from its high. And dividends have been negligible, so total return is not much better.

Ha

 

[RockOn]

It is really much worse than that. Year-end 1989 the Nikkei 225 closed just shy of 40,000. It closed today just shy of 13,000. So after 19 years, that index is still down by 2/3 from its high. And dividends have been negligible, so total return is not much better.

Ha

You have missed 18 years of inflations impact. They have to buy oil and food too. I know they did have some deflation.

 

[FIREd]

Well I did some buying today, small caps, large caps and emerging markets. My ESPP plan also purchased new company shares for me last friday at a very attractive price.

 

[W2R]

Well I did some buying today, small caps, large caps and emerging markets. My ESPP plan also purchased new company shares for me last friday at a very attractive price.

Excellent!! That was very smart. Have fun following them on their way back up. Sounds like you got some winners.

 

[Patrick]

Excellent!! That was very smart. Have fun following them on their way back up. Sounds like you got some winners.

Not to be argumentative, but how do you they're going back up?