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Old 12-18-2015, 02:31 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by doneat58 View Post
Now almost exactly one year out from FIRE, I would just LOVE to see my investments do SOMETHING. Seems they have been stuck in neutral for what, 4-8 months? I hear a lot about the Feb interest rate increase (newswires today) and generally feel that it will be a good thing, and a sign that the economy has truly "turned the corner". I have been somewhat eager about this day... but I also still see a lot of skittishness in the global economy. Love buying gas for under $2/gal too, but also know there are consequences to that as well.

What are the forums thoughts on the effect of the fed interest rate raise and the outlook for 2016?

Be glad your investments are neutral... my investments in the MLP sector have been dropping with the price of oil.

All the hand wringing on the Fed rate is just journalism in action. They have to have something to talk about or nobody will tune in to see their ads.

I don't think the interest rate raise indicates anything about the economy. With most of the world in recession its likely we will also go into one after the presidential elections.

If I were going to retire soon I'd make sure I had 3-5 years living expenses in cash.
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Old 12-18-2015, 02:34 PM   #82
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Anyone want to bet that we'll see zero again before we see 3% ?


I think the US and much of the world is trapped in the same disaster Japan has been in for decades. My expectation is multi-decade long stagnation. Interest rates will stay low. My guess is under 1%.
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Old 12-18-2015, 04:11 PM   #83
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I think the US and much of the world is trapped in the same disaster Japan has been in for decades. My expectation is multi-decade long stagnation. Interest rates will stay low. My guess is under 1%.

Ouch, we don't want what happened to Japan happen here....


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Old 12-18-2015, 05:12 PM   #84
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Modern history indicates that economies don't work well at 0% inflation. 2% inflation seems to be the minimum for a healthy growing economy.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/commu...ice-index-1800

From 1800 to 1942 there were periods of inflation and deflation in the USA. At the end of 1942 prices finally stayed above prices in 1800 for good, since then inflation has been much more of an issue, the issue currently is debt is so high without an ongoing amortization of it via inflation it would become unmanageable over time.
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