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Time to buy stocks?
Old 11-19-2016, 02:53 PM   #1
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Time to buy stocks?

Just as equity indices approach all-time highs again...the buy high crowd begins to move their money into stocks. Who are there people that have never heard of "buy low, sell high?"


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Instead investors shoveled money into global stocks, with exchange traded equity funds attracting the lion's share -- a record $34 billion of inflows. The bank also noted the widest weekly disparity between stocks and bonds flows ever.

Not surprisingly given Trump's talk of expansionary policies, U.S. equity funds pulled in $30.7 billion, the largest weekly inflows in two years.
http://www.fa-mag.com/news/bonds-suf...ml?section=116
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Old 11-19-2016, 03:56 PM   #2
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I ain't selling my stocks or my bonds. I don't listen to "the buzz".
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Old 11-19-2016, 04:06 PM   #3
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The total value of all US stocks is $28 trillion. That $30.7 billion is just a bit more than 0.1%. I need the word to get out for them to buy more, so I can sell. Buy, buy, buy...
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Old 11-19-2016, 04:31 PM   #4
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I find the best time to buy stocks is when I have money to buy them with.
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Old 11-19-2016, 04:42 PM   #5
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In order for the market to move to new highs, it first has to approach the old highs after a correction, and then additional buying is needed to push higher. If you look back this has happened many times before. That being said, I do no trading or market timing.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:05 AM   #6
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Almost by definition most people will buy when stocks are high.

Conversely, pretty much a mathematical impossibility that the majority of people will buy when stocks are low. Supply/demand and all that.
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Old 11-20-2016, 08:09 AM   #7
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Do you believe there is still Momentum? The momentum effect is real.
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Old 11-20-2016, 11:08 AM   #8
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I've had a good run up in my holdings over the past eight years - I didn't panic during the 2008 crash - but I believe the outlook with indices at record highs is stormy. Over the past few weeks, I've repositioned some six figures of assets into short term bond funds and cash. I think we're due for a major correction next year and I want to have resources available to take advantage of it. I also want sufficient cash reserves to be able to live on in case there is a prolonged market downturn and recession. I simply don't want to have to sell low to live.
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Old 11-21-2016, 10:28 AM   #9
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Added a yearly rung to the bond ladder Friday, missing today's gains.
People buy high because no one knows where the peak is. Two years ago most people I spoke with said that was the peak.
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Old 11-21-2016, 05:37 PM   #10
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All the major indexes made new highs today. That means the market is above resistance, and is a good sign. Still, future moves will respond to the new facts and information that comes to light, which can be good or bad.
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Old 11-21-2016, 05:41 PM   #11
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What's new?
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Old 11-22-2016, 07:06 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnavynuke View Post
I find the best time to buy stocks is when I have money to buy them with.
Yes, agree. Especially for buy and hold investors. After a few years the price you paid becomes less important. Market timing is very difficult.
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Old 11-22-2016, 07:59 AM   #13
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I keep buying.

Next year, today's prices will look like they bought low. Or not...
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Old 11-22-2016, 08:26 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnavynuke View Post
I find the best time to buy stocks is when I have money to buy them with.
^^^This

I make monthly contributions. Based on my allocations, I am monthly buying something. I have held on for a couple of months if I feel like buying an individual stock vs an ETF from time-to-time or to purchase a "larger" CD, but usually am a monthly investor.

cd :O)
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Old 11-22-2016, 02:42 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
All the major indexes made new highs today. That means the market is above resistance, and is a good sign. Still, future moves will respond to the new facts and information that comes to light, which can be good or bad.
Resistance
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Old 11-22-2016, 03:35 PM   #16
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The Shiller PE seems to be bouncing off 26 and 27 for a few years now. It came off of 27 pretty hard in February, to the tune of about 10%, down to 24, but obviously came back to 27ish now. I'd say around 18 is where I'd get serious about changing my asset allocation.
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Old 11-23-2016, 09:13 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
The Shiller PE seems to be bouncing off 26 and 27 for a few years now. It came off of 27 pretty hard in February, to the tune of about 10%, down to 24, but obviously came back to 27ish now. I'd say around 18 is where I'd get serious about changing my asset allocation.
Considering that the Schiller PE has stayed above 18 since 1991, with the exception of a few months in late 2008 and early 2009, that's a pretty stringent bar.
Shiller PE Ratio by Month
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Old 11-24-2016, 05:32 AM   #18
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I would think that the Shiller PE would still be elevated to a degree by the earnings crash of the Great Recession. We will need to get into the 2020's for that effect to be past.
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Old 11-24-2016, 06:23 AM   #19
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https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...k-market-cheap
Is the Stock Market Cheap? - dshort - Advisor Perspectives
by Jill Mislinski, 11/1/16

Quote:
Wouldn't Valuations Be Much Lower If We Exclude the Financial Crisis Earnings Crash?

This is an often asked question, the assumption being that the unprecedented negative earnings of the Financial Crisis skewed the P/E10 substantially higher than would otherwise have been the case. While that may seem a reasonable assumption, a simple experiment shows that the earnings plunge did not dramatically impact the ratio. Let's assume that the December 2007 TTM earnings of 66.18 remained constant for the next 29 months, totally eliminate the collapse in earnings of the Great Recession. What impact does this have on the P/E 10? The mean (average) only drops from 16.6 to 16.5. The lower bound of the top quintile drops from 21.2 to 20.8.
Have to ponder this a while...
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Old 11-24-2016, 02:31 PM   #20
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My monthly 401k contribution plus match of 3k goes directly to sp500 index. It's kind of hard to commit extra cash.
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