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Old 03-14-2014, 07:34 AM   #21
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As a defensive strategy, may I suggest that you don't read too many gloomy bearish reports? I understand that they are going to be right one day but relying on them for one's investment strategy is not going to be very profitable in the long run. Time has proven that.
I have a different take on bearish reports: They stop/hinder me from being overly aggressive in my investments; i.e., irrational exuberance.
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Old 03-14-2014, 08:15 AM   #22
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Always consider the source. I googled the author. He is most frequently writing doom and gloom and warning articles. I guess that's what WSJ pays him to do. The articles that are read the most and voted as the most helpful are the negative articles. Good news just isn't news. I'm not doing anything either. If there is a significant dip, I'll consider a minor amount of reinvesting. But I'm working on cash reserves for my impending retirement so I too will do nothing.
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Old 03-14-2014, 08:51 AM   #23
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A list of reasons for the recent sell-off in equities. Why did the stock market sell off today? | The Reformed Broker

Note - the author doesn't have much respect for mainstream or financial media. You get the idea...
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Old 03-14-2014, 08:55 AM   #24
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A list of reasons for the recent sell-off in equities. Why did the stock market sell off today? | The Reformed Broker

Note - the author doesn't have much respect for mainstream or financial media. You get the idea...
Josh Brown is a fee only advisor for this firm:

Ritholtz Wealth Management |

He is probably one of the only clear thinkers that contributes to CNBC.
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Old 03-16-2014, 07:43 PM   #25
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Josh Brown is a fee only advisor for this firm:

Ritholtz Wealth Management |

He is probably one of the only clear thinkers that contributes to CNBC.

YMMV, but Brown left the brokerage world to become fee-based, and IMO writes one of the better investment blogs--along with The Big Picture and Abnormal Returns. IMO. His reading list posted each day (along with TBP) are worth reviewing periodically.
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Old 03-17-2014, 12:27 PM   #26
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Old 05-04-2014, 08:46 AM   #27
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Another amusing article vis-a-vis MSM financial pundits: Jason Kelly | Ignore All Forecasters

He calls them "z-vals" - zero value forecasters (i.e. no credibility whatsoever). LOL!

Good reminder to ignore the talking heads!!!
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Old 05-04-2014, 08:54 AM   #28
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Snooze city and I cannot even be bothered to click the link. Come on, reading doom and gloom voluntarily? Go outside and play in the sunshine for a while if it is getting to you.
+1.
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:03 AM   #29
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Another amusing article vis-a-vis MSM financial pundits: Jason Kelly | Ignore All Forecasters

He calls them "z-vals" - zero value forecasters (i.e. no credibility whatsoever). LOL!

Good reminder to ignore the talking heads!!!
I was watching when Gartman made the call on the 15 minute change. I used to think this guy had credibility, but I can only assume he was on drugs when he made that call.
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:08 AM   #30
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I was watching when Gartman made the call on the 15 minute change. I used to think this guy had credibility, but I can only assume he was on drugs when he made that call.
He had already given me whiplash a couple of times prior, so this just made me and then just a couple weeks later he's the most bullish in the room .

I really try to avoid it, but I inadvertently pick up some of these calls because I use the CNBC app in my iPad, and you get exposed to headlines now and then. The app is great as long as you ignore what CNBC considers "news".
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:14 AM   #31
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I used to value Gartman for his calls on the direction of commodities since I play in that area (lightly). I also work in the industry. His calls on the direction of crude oil were what I watched for. Now it seems those are 15 minute calls also.

He keeps saying "buy the things that will hurt if they fall on your foot" (metals), but his call has not been rosy. Until we have a real world-wide surge in industrial production and consumption, basic metals will not go anywhere.
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:41 AM   #32
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I have been pretty good in my estimates by thinking we are in a Slinky economy, and have been ever since 2007. Things are moving down, due to energy costs, and there is no source of cheap energy on the horizon. The economy runs on energy - the boom times for the USA was when we had our own energy, we have been hurting ever since the 70s, though the boom / bust cycles have been hiding it.

But over all, things have been moving down, with recoveries, but the recoveries aren't really going back up, just slowing down the downward for a brief period of time.

I think this is the new norm, until we figure out a new source of energy and resources. All resources are now owned, there are no new continents to exploit, so booms aren't due to finding more resources, but mainly speculation, which is bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...

At least, this is what I am seeing.

(disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor and am not selling anything, just my dos colones, which is only worth 1/5 as much as two cents. )
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Old 05-04-2014, 09:53 AM   #33
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I should have gone in harder at market bottoms.
... cuz you knew where they were at the time?
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:07 AM   #34
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I have been pretty good in my estimates by thinking we are in a Slinky economy, and have been ever since 2007. Things are moving down, due to energy costs, and there is no source of cheap energy on the horizon. The economy runs on energy - the boom times for the USA was when we had our own energy, we have been hurting ever since the 70s, though the boom / bust cycles have been hiding it.

But over all, things have been moving down, with recoveries, but the recoveries aren't really going back up, just slowing down the downward for a brief period of time.

I think this is the new norm, until we figure out a new source of energy and resources. All resources are now owned, there are no new continents to exploit, so booms aren't due to finding more resources, but mainly speculation, which is bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...

At least, this is what I am seeing.

(disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor and am not selling anything, just my dos colones, which is only worth 1/5 as much as two cents. )
It is good that you are pretty good at your estimates, but you must have missed the information on the U.S. energy boom that is going on right now. Last year the U.S. was predicted to become the world's largest energy producer by 2015, surpassing even Russia and Saudi Arabia due to the new technologies being used in oil and gas production, with energy independence coming soon. America's relatively abundant and low cost energy is one of the reasons Kurtzman gives in his book "Unleashing the Second American Century" for continued American growth. Couple that with the continued decrease in the cost of solar energy and continuing innovation in all areas of energy production and it is hard to see a reason for gloom here.
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Old 05-04-2014, 10:48 AM   #35
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I have been pretty good in my estimates by thinking we are in a Slinky economy, and have been ever since 2007. Things are moving down, due to energy costs, and there is no source of cheap energy on the horizon. The economy runs on energy - the boom times for the USA was when we had our own energy, we have been hurting ever since the 70s, though the boom / bust cycles have been hiding it.

But over all, things have been moving down, with recoveries, but the recoveries aren't really going back up, just slowing down the downward for a brief period of time.

I think this is the new norm, until we figure out a new source of energy and resources. All resources are now owned, there are no new continents to exploit, so booms aren't due to finding more resources, but mainly speculation, which is bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...

At least, this is what I am seeing.

(disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor and am not selling anything, just my dos colones, which is only worth 1/5 as much as two cents. )
Yeah - you have totally missed the US energy boom of the last 5 years!!! I suggest you research your assumptions.

Energy boom to aid U.S. urban manufacturing jobs to 2020: report | Reuters
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Old 05-04-2014, 11:26 AM   #36
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Yeah - you have totally missed the US energy boom of the last 5 years!!! I suggest you research your assumptions.



Energy boom to aid U.S. urban manufacturing jobs to 2020: report | Reuters

And I hope it lasts! However, just reading in the paper today how government is putting the screws to coal industry and many utilities are shutting them down. Putting pressure on natural gas, which is more volatile in price than coal. They were estimating electricity prices in future to outstrip inflation. Who knows... Fortunately my "footprint" is small enough that if/any increases occur, they will just annoy me more than break me.


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Old 05-04-2014, 12:00 PM   #37
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And I hope it lasts! However, just reading in the paper today how government is putting the screws to coal industry and many utilities are shutting them down. Putting pressure on natural gas, which is more volatile in price than coal. They were estimating electricity prices in future to outstrip inflation. Who knows... Fortunately my "footprint" is small enough that if/any increases occur, they will just annoy me more than break me.


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I'd like to read that. Can you link?

Ha
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Old 05-04-2014, 07:01 PM   #38
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And I hope it lasts! However, just reading in the paper today how government is putting the screws to coal industry and many utilities are shutting them down. Putting pressure on natural gas, which is more volatile in price than coal. They were estimating electricity prices in future to outstrip inflation. Who knows... Fortunately my "footprint" is small enough that if/any increases occur, they will just annoy me more than break me.


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I think what you are seeing with coal is the prohibitive cost to outfit a NEW generating facility with NOx and SO2 controls to meet current emission standards. Older plants are grandfathered into old rules. There are still a lot of coal-fired generating plants in operation. New coal plants probably won't be built. Nuke plants will be, however.

Some generating facilities are installing peak generators to handle high demand loads using natural gas fired equipment. There's lots of gas, just not all in the right places so this will vary.

As far as crude oil production, horizontal drilling techniques have made the industry very productive since now a well can exploit a large payzone and do this in multiple runs, versus a straight vertical well that is screened for production in a narrow payzone.

We will be past Iraq and Iran in production in Texas alone in 2015+. Getting crude output greater than Russia or Saudi Arabia will take up to doubling the current production. If that happens, we will have to sell crude oil as the U.S. demand will be overtaken. One unfortunate thing though, is we don't have enough refining capacity to handle today's demand and therefore have to import refined products and will do so in the future even though we will have enough crude oil to surpass US demand.
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Old 05-04-2014, 07:23 PM   #39
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I'd like to read that. Can you link?

Ha
I use old school paper Ha, but I found it on the online version here in STL Post Dispatch. U.S. electricity prices may be going up for good : Stltoday

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U.S. electricity prices may be going up for good

As the temperature plunged to 16 below zero in Chicago in early January and record lows were set across the eastern U.S., electrical system managers implored the public to turn off stoves, dryers and even lights or risk blackouts.

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Old 05-04-2014, 10:59 PM   #40
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I think what you are seeing with coal is the prohibitive cost to outfit a NEW generating facility with NOx and SO2 controls to meet current emission standards. Older plants are grandfathered into old rules. There are still a lot of coal-fired generating plants in operation. New coal plants probably won't be built. Nuke plants will be, however.

Some generating facilities are installing peak generators to handle high demand loads using natural gas fired equipment. There's lots of gas, just not all in the right places so this will vary.

As far as crude oil production, horizontal drilling techniques have made the industry very productive since now a well can exploit a large payzone and do this in multiple runs, versus a straight vertical well that is screened for production in a narrow payzone.

We will be past Iraq and Iran in production in Texas alone in 2015+. Getting crude output greater than Russia or Saudi Arabia will take up to doubling the current production. If that happens, we will have to sell crude oil as the U.S. demand will be overtaken. One unfortunate thing though, is we don't have enough refining capacity to handle today's demand and therefore have to import refined products and will do so in the future even though we will have enough crude oil to surpass US demand.
Are the refiners afraid to risk the money when rule changes and government difficulties could make then stranded assets?

Under current law is it illegal to export crude, but not refined product? So if we had the capacity we could export value added distillates to Europe or Asia for example?

Ha
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