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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-01-2007, 10:26 AM   #41
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Are you kidding?! Wow, fasten your tinfoil hats, kids.

I really don't understand this sort of rationale. Have you actually ever seen any documented, preferable academic evidence suggesting that any of this technical mumbo-jumbo has any validity? I certainly have not. Instead, I note that a sizable percentage of amateur schmoes follow this nonsense. In contrast, none of the smart, well-educated investment professionals (who produce very strong returns) of my acquaintance have any truck with this stuff. If you are drinking that formaldehyde kool-aid, I'm not sure we can help you, my friend.
i don't believe in all of them since anyone can make up any formula from the price/volume info which is what they really are. I like MACD, Stochastics, on balance volume and a few chart patterns.

pull up a yearly chart of any index along with the MACD and stochastics and you will see the same thing over and over. Almost every year there is a nice rally where the technicals flash bullish for 3 months or so and then the next three month they flatten out while the market stays flat or goes a little higher

There is also a Fortune article from 2002 where they went back 100 years and saw a few things repeating themselves. The economy is very similar in the same year of every decade and most of the stock market's profits are made November through April. They found that if you were only invested 6 months out of the year you would outperform the indexes by around 1% on average with less risk.

In my free time I'm doing something similar and going back to look at the market performance every year and in the same years of every decade the market performs in similar fashion. 1987 looks very similar to this year's market. Even the news is almost the same. i pulled up some old articles from the NY Times and all you need to do is replace Bernanke with Volcker.

my prediction is that depending how this iran thing turns out we'll probably start a rally in a few weeks, hit some highs and in the spirit of 1987 and 1997 we'll get a nice crash in October due to bond or debt issues. for the last 20 years it seems bankers like to flush hundreds of billions of $$$ down the toilet on a regular schedule.

It's not exact where you can say every year is exactly the same but it's close enough where except for the late 1990's and late 1950's the stock market from the peak of year 7 of a decade usually goes sideways until the start of the next decade.

I also read a book that says we'll probably repeat 1929 in 2009 due to demographic trends. Baby Boomers are about to start retiring and he said back in the late 1920's another big generation was also starting to retire and went past their peak spending years but i think there are too many changes now since the last time.

in summary, people make the same stupid mistakes every decade no matter how fancy their degree is and us small fry can make a ton of money on the market inefficencies that it creates. Almost every decade there is a debt crisis where it turns out unimaginable amounts of bad loans were made. 1980's it was S&L and junk bonds. 1990's it was telecom and anything with the internet. I think something like $2 trillion was flushed down the toilet 10 years ago because the internet was doubling in size every week. we still haven't had the emerging markets debt crisis of the decade yet.

for 2007 - 2010 it's going to be mortgages. The subprime flu is already spreading to ALt-A and 3Q is when most of the rate resets start and we still don't know who holds all the credit default swaps. Based on past history we'll probably find out around October. If it's an insurance company or a few insurance companies like i've read and it's a strong hurricane season because last year there was sand in the atmospehere last year and supposedly none this year....
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-03-2007, 10:19 AM   #42
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Re: Time to start buying again?

maybe we aren't going to get a second leg down? breaking the 50 day line on what looks like is going to be high volume.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-03-2007, 10:27 AM   #43
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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Originally Posted by al_bundy
maybe we aren't going to get a second leg down? breaking the 50 day line on what looks like is going to be high volume.
You'd know better than I about that stuff. From what I see, the market is just flopping around, over-reacting to every piece of data and news and waiting for 1st quarter earnings reports (remember? fundamentls?). If earnings are Ok, the market will rally since valuations aren't stratospheric.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-03-2007, 11:23 AM   #44
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
You'd know better than I about that stuff. From what I see, the market is just flopping around, over-reacting to every piece of data and news and waiting for 1st quarter earnings reports (remember? fundamentls?). If earnings are Ok, the market will rally since valuations aren't stratospheric.
Yep, it went spastic over that housing data today. Totally uncalled for. Of course when is the market every really sane.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-03-2007, 11:30 AM   #45
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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Yep, it went spastic over that housing data today. Totally uncalled for. Of course when is the market every really sane.
Dunno if that is what the market went nuts about, since the price of oil is sliding a lot today and the UK/Iran situation appears to be de-escalating. The entire mortgage finance world is absurdly cheap now anyway, so it wouldn't take much to spark a rally there.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-03-2007, 02:35 PM   #46
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Re: Time to start buying again?

from what i remember in 1987 Reagan reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers under the US flag and US warships were escorting them and there was a mini war with Iran. The USS Vincencess shot down an Iranian airliner. The Iraqi's shot up a US destroyer and killed 37 sailors and we had a nice summer rally of around 10%.

just rechecked the Dow charts going back to 1947 and it looks like every 7th year of the decade except 1977 had a summer rally starting around April. You can always cash out later.

they had a pending home sales index chart in the IBD today. really tomorrow's paper. looks like it made a higher low and moved up a notch which is why the stock market liked it.

it was doing lower highs and lower lows for a while and it looks like the trend reversed itself.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-04-2007, 01:47 AM   #47
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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Originally Posted by al_bundy


just rechecked the Dow charts going back to 1947 and it looks like every 7th year of the decade except 1977 had a summer rally starting around April. You can always cash out later.
did you figure in the Super Bowl this year?
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-04-2007, 08:43 AM   #48
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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did you figure in the Super Bowl this year?
And Bangladesh butter production...
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-04-2007, 09:18 AM   #49
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Re: Time to start buying again?

I've found another pretty awesome trend that you can use to make literally 8-10% in the market! I'm going to post it, but you have to promise to paypal me a $100 donation if you make lots of money from using my tip.

Here it is: approximately 2/3's of the time, the market goes up on days that end in 'y'. Be very careful how you use this advice, as it can be very powerful.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-04-2007, 09:22 AM   #50
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Re: Time to start buying again?

And pay attention to that nasty Mercury retrograde, especially when saturn is in the 8th house and conjuncting venus in capricorn--it'll get you every time. :
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 04-04-2007, 09:24 AM   #51
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Re: Time to start buying again?

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Originally Posted by OKLibrarian
And pay attention to that nasty Mercury retrograde, especially when saturn is in the 8th house and conjuncting venus in capricorn--it'll get you every time. :
That sounds dirty kinky... :P
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