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Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 08:33 AM   #1
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Time to start buying again?

I've been accumulating cash while watching the market lately and it continues to languish...is this the time to buy, or are we entering the summer doldrums? Better to sit tight and wait for some better deals?

Let the dirty market timing commence!
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 09:24 AM   #2
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Re: Time to start buying again?

I DCA, so I never stopped buying, and don't plan to.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 09:45 AM   #3
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Thank goodness I am still in the midst of rebalancing. Thus, I can write that I am not market timing.

But I might not be finished with my rebalancing until July.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 09:50 AM   #4
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL!
Thank goodness I am still in the midst of rebalancing. Thus, I can write that I am not market timing.

But I might not be finished with my rebalancing until July.
So everytime someone changes their asset allocation, all they have to do is say that they are "rebalancing" and not "market timing" and everything is ok.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 09:54 AM   #5
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Re: Time to start buying again?

As I get additional cash I distribute it based on my % allocations, regardless of the market conditions. I have learned that the market makes alot of noise - some of it intentionally so I don't listen to it or change my behaviour.

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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 10:10 AM   #6
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Most of the time, there is always cheap stuff to buy if you look around. Right now, retail banks are the cheapest they have been for years (and right before a Fed easing cycle, if I am any judge). DSX is on blue light special, likely for today and today only. So there is attractive stuff to buy...
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 10:17 AM   #7
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Re: Time to start buying again?

I'm not much for market timing, mostly DCA into my 401k type account & DRIPs. For me it is important that I have been DCAing for 20+ years and that works. I no longer adjust my asset allocation, at least in my retirement fund, that is handled by my Target Retirement fund. But as additional cash has come in I have collected it in my credit union account and I expect I would buy something if there were some assets on a firesale. I don't see anything like that. I would say right now is only the time to buy if it is part of your regualr plan , not because some assets are a compelling value.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 11:42 AM   #8
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
I've been accumulating cash while watching the market lately and it continues to languish...is this the time to buy, or are we entering the summer doldrums? Better to sit tight and wait for some better deals?

Let the dirty market timing commence!
What happens if this summer is a ripper ? Probably not but you never know. Maybe the fed decides to lower rates in May. Which would trigger a buying frenzy.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 01:30 PM   #9
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Thanks Brewer, bought 1T DSX today. Love that yeild.

Have you noticed how correlated the international markets have become with our market? I am looking around now for specific stocks, preferably foreign that will do well in uncertain times. If the Fed lowers rates the dollar will go down, if the Fed raises rates the market will go down. If Iran continues to act up our market will go down and oil will go up. Right now looking at NHY (Norwegian Hydro) but think I am late for the dance. What do you think Brewer?
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 02:21 PM   #10
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Frankly, I think all oil & gas equities will be highly correlated regardless of where they are domiciled. So I would concentrate on an analysis of teh specific company itself (or just buy a sector ETF).

Yeah, everything is very highly corelated these days, especially when the commode hits the windmill. I am now heavily concentrated in 3 sectors: dry bulk shippers, retail depository institutions, and reinsurers. The first are dirt cheap and will continue to just print money as long as China and India keep growing (and they roll around in thousand dollar bills while India and China are trying to grow faster than the physical world permits). The second are cheaper than they have been in years and will be on fire whenever the Fed gets around to chopping rates (second half of the year is my guess). The third are damn cheap, and their performance will have very little to do with US or world economic trends.

Then I have some bonds and a grab-bag of one-off names.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 02:30 PM   #11
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
So everytime someone changes their asset allocation, all they have to do is say that they are "rebalancing" and not "market timing"
... if one changes their a.a. in response to the market, that sure seems like market timing. but, if one maintains their a.a. by rebalancing, it's not.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 03:43 PM   #12
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Re: Time to start buying again?

I would like to find a Norwegian ADR with a business I like, particularly one that might be suitable for a Norwegian widow. Grandpa may have left Telemark but this progeny would like to reclaim a small piece.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 08:22 PM   #13
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by soupcxan
I've been accumulating cash while watching the market lately and it continues to languish...is this the time to buy, or are we entering the summer doldrums? Better to sit tight and wait for some better deals?
Was there ever a time to stop buying? (How often have you seen Brewer turning backflips over a stock buy?) And if you can't find something to buy then surely you can find something to short!

Today we're all partying over DSX, but there will always be underpriced (and overpriced) stocks available to the mortal retail investor. If they're too hard to find then I'd just keep DCA'ing it into an index fund and enjoy life.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 10:32 PM   #14
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Today we're all partying over DSX, but there will always be underpriced (and overpriced) stocks available to the mortal retail investor. If they're too hard to find then I'd just keep DCA'ing it into an index fund and enjoy life.
What if you had DSX a week ago and now you lost like 5% ?
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 10:36 PM   #15
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Buy more or just collect the dividend and relax. I think that's what brewski would say anyway.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-29-2007, 10:47 PM   #16
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vvsonikvv
What if you had DSX a week ago and now you lost like 5% ?
It's just a little volatility. And if you're not planning to sell then it doesn't even matter.

1. If I wasn't at my target allocation then I'd look at the latest info and probably buy more.
2. If I was at my target allocation then I'd make sure that my account was reinvesting my dividends (especially since this week is the end of the quarter).
3. If 1 & 2 are set then I'd give DSX time to bloom while I'm looking around for something else to buy (or short).

It sounds easy, but the output is directly proportional to the effort & time spent. And frankly there are more & more times when I'd rather be longboarding, so I wouldn't have made this buy if it wasn't for the secondary offering's surprisingly low price.

Our portfolio's over 90% equities and pretty volatile. Without counting Berkshire Hathaway, nearly 9% of our ER portfolio is individual stocks. With BRK it's over 40%. So I wouldn't count 5% as very volatile, and even in the recent air pocket we were only down about 4.4%.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-30-2007, 12:31 AM   #17
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaudrey
I DCA, so I never stopped buying, and don't plan to.
Ditto! 8)

Although I did scrape together a little spare change and threw it in there a a couple of weeks ago...but not something I would do on a regular basis. If I came up with more spare change, I'd just increase the amount that I DCA.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-30-2007, 03:49 AM   #18
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Never stopped. Still work and contribute to 401k, Roth IRA, taxable accounts. Since this occurs as dividends and work income shows up... it is DCA.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-30-2007, 06:45 AM   #19
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by vvsonikvv
What if you had DSX a week ago and now you lost like 5% ?
I bought more. Been buying since the stock was around 10. Buying on every big dip against an underlying business that keeps getting better has been extremely profitable over the past year. Plus the thing barfs out roughly 12% yield in cash at yeserday's price.
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Re: Time to start buying again?
Old 03-30-2007, 11:11 AM   #20
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Re: Time to start buying again?

Now is the time to be selling, of that I am convinced more as the year is progressing. To be ignoring the fundamentals that are underlying the economy of the US, with the mantra of there is never a bad time to buy is symbolic of the poor future for the near term 12-36 months for the stock market.

Look at the article in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal where Alan Blinder discusses the future of America's higher paid workers to realize that the technology era, which was a source of the boom in the 80's and 90's will be leading an era of decreasing income in the United States. A leading indicator is the slowing of housing, and the mortgage problems that are following them. This is part of a technological sea change that will impact pricing across the world. Citicorp's decision to offshore 15,000 workers to China and India and Circuit City's decision to fire all higher paid workers to be replaced with minimum wage workers will put inexorable pressure on competitors to do the same as the price pressures continue.

Time will tell but the year is unfolding very much as I was afraid it would at the start of the year.
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