Originally Posted by Birchwood
Thanks a lot for all your comments. I'll add some comments of my own.
1. The said 825K is only a small% of my entire asset. I also have other stock positions, mainly dividend paying stocks that I intend to hang on.
2. As far as AA, I think I am heavy on cash that can last many years, so my existence will not be affected by this so called big move. Well I do understand that it's not making much to even correct for the 2% inflation.
3. When some says "rebalancing", aren't they also in a way, "timing" it when their AA is not behaving as they prefer?
4. I gather that all of us are actually guessing, as nobody can infact predict what's going to happen!
5. I'm also heavily invested in US treasury direct, to buffer or stabilize or reduce volatility, but that's another story.
6. Some predicts market volatility for the future. Maybe it's old news, but,
markets go into cycles, thus it does not go up forever! correct?
7. If markets go in "cycles", would it be a good idea to slowly buy when you perceives it's on the down side? although we're not going to be right all the time?
8. When you need the money to live on now, who cares about future earning potential! or lost of earning potential.
9. When you don't need the money now, well, you can play the market and be real sophisticated about AA , inflation correction, but since we are all guessing anyway, the most important point is how much we have, the AA secondary.
10. If a real "stagflation" occurs, we are all in trouble. correct?
Let me suggest a different approach. Figure out what you need for retirement make sure that you factor inflation rate of say between 2-4% (or more if your pessimistic/conservative). Use FIRECalc. Then figure out how important the 825K in your overall retirement picture. If you can afford to have the $825K earning 0% nominal and (-2 to -3% after inflation) for many years then it doesn't matter what you do with it.
If you keep the money on the sidelines one of three things is likely to happen.
1. The market continues up (and yes at first approximation the market does go up forever, due to inflation, population growth, and productivity gains). In 5 year (including reinvesting dividends) the Dow will be at 20K, with the traditional 9% a year gains. Is that too optimistic possibly? but far from out of the question.
2. The market goes down 10,000 and you buy, and then turns around and heads up. You own 30% more share than you would have than buying now congratulations on your timing.
3. The market goes down to 10,000 and you are concerned because the economy, market looks scary and you stay on the sidelines. The market goes back and your money stays in cash earning at best the rate of inflation.
It seems to me simplistically you have 1 chance in 3 of doing the right thing.