It looks like getting my bike stolen may actually be profitable for me. After dealing with a bit of rigamorale from Visa and Allstate both claiming the other was the primary insurance, and both saying they wouldn't process the claim until they heard from the other, I got a call from a really on the ball Allstate rep.
After explaining my frustration he quickly set out to make it right, and after a couple of hours and a few phone calls he had processed my claim by contacting Visa and the bike shop.
It turns out that the sale price I bought my bike for is no longer in effect, and the current price is $450 more. And it turns out that I have full replacement cost insurance. So the agent said that I will be getting a check for about $1400, which is the replacement cost of $1900 minus my $500 deductible. And I still should get the $500 from Visa as well.
I will say that first and only ride was a good test ride; I determined that I didn't like the Shimano shifting system as well as the SRAM system, so I ended up replacing the bike with a different model with SRAM shifters, for $100 more than I paid, but $400 less than insurance seems to be paying.
Strange world, it is.... the bike theft seems to be getting me better bike and money in my pocket.
I suppose they looked at their database and noted that I've never filed a serious claim before and decided I'm not a scammer.
I noticed an advertisement on the train the other day for Allstate renters insurance, which happened to have a picture of two nice road bikes remarkably similar to mine which was stolen. The copy is "Can you afford to buy it twice?". And there was something about how bicycles are stolen often in San Francisco. So apparently I'm their target market.