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Old 07-06-2008, 04:32 PM   #21
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As the market moves in any direction so as to establish a perceived trend, you will always see some predicting a continuation of that trend. Eventually all trends (as measured by any smoothing average you care to dream up) reverse. I'm still looking for the system that tells me when that will happen.
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Old 07-06-2008, 04:39 PM   #22
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I already added some equities when we were first down about 18%. So this time I have to wait for 25% to 30% down. Definitely looking to move some cash to equities if the market continues down.
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Old 07-06-2008, 04:41 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by bentley View Post
With the recent downturn of the market, along with an uncertain future, what do you plan to do with your portfolio tomorrow? Futures call for another significant down day on Monday, July 7.

At 55, and desperatly wanting to ER, I'm considering pulling out of the market and going to cd's for a while.

your thoughts?
I'm 50...got 4 years of cash for living expenses. Been dca'ing for 25 years in the stock market and made money. I don't plan to stop now.
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Old 07-06-2008, 04:44 PM   #24
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The doom and gloomer's are predicting another 20% drop.
I'm not a "doom and gloomer" but history shows an additional 20% decline is not out of the question. What you do then is the bigger question. Once the crowd starts to dump stocks in earnest it will test your fortitude.
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Old 07-06-2008, 04:47 PM   #25
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Once the crowd starts to dump stocks in earnest it will test your fortitude.
Never a truer statement made...even more so when you are months away from ER.
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Old 07-06-2008, 04:51 PM   #26
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What will I do? Watch the market a little, yawn, and do nothing....
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Old 07-06-2008, 05:02 PM   #27
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the high as compared to what?
Who knows? It could be the high for the next few years. Personally I think it's still on it's way down unless some miracle happens. For example the war ends and we win, all closed areas are opened up to drilling oil, the government bails out the lenders and borrowers, the FED sets interest rates at minus 2%, Bush sends out $50,000 stimulous checks to everyone, someone invents a large SUV that gets two hundred MPG and does zero to 60 in 2.5 seconds......all I need is a miracle.
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Old 07-06-2008, 05:28 PM   #28
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What will I do? Watch the market a little, yawn, and do nothing....
Yep, same here! Although I did just receive my annual pension 'bonus' check, and I might put some of it into the market this week to take advantage of the 'blue light specials'......or not.
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Old 07-06-2008, 05:36 PM   #29
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Tomorrow I plan to mow my grass, clean up my golf cart, and just generally stay away from financial news. The market will probably decrease some more but I think it is pretty much late in the game to be selling now. Now if we ever get back to May's high, that's another story.
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Old 07-06-2008, 05:52 PM   #30
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At 55, and desperatly wanting to ER, I'm considering pulling out of the market and going to cd's for a while.

your thoughts?
Existing money needs to stay where it is, even if it takes nerves of steel. New money can go into CDs, a low-cost index find, or even bonds or treasuries if your portfolio need some rebalancing.

Personally, for nearly a year, I've stopped investing in the market. I keep new money in a simple money market account while I wait for things to clarify and have been keeping an eye out for good commercial real estate. These days, though, I'm very tempted to buy some indexes.

With retirement possibly right around the corner, you should probably check in with your financial advisor and get some peace of mind. The stress of indecision can be worse than the market itself.
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Old 07-06-2008, 05:53 PM   #31
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I'm going to take the day off from work and have a nice breakfast

Excellent!
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Old 07-06-2008, 06:07 PM   #32
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I'm still looking for the system that tells me when that will happen.
Take a look at the "slow stochastic" on the SP 500 (one year chart) in the technical indicators section on Yahoo. It points out oversold bottoms pretty well even though once again, not the holy grail. We are definitely due for a bounce and I expect to see one soon. Even the infamous Jim Cramer talked about looking at oversold indicators as a timing indicator a week ago or so.

P.S. I added the link........ When it goes below 20 and turns up a rally is usually underway
^GSPC: Technical Analysis for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH - Yahoo! Finance=

Enjoy
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Old 07-06-2008, 06:49 PM   #33
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I was just looking at my Vanguard account and something did occur to me.

I have been accumulating DLS and DGS over the past year or so for international small cap exposure and I now have a paper loss. I could sell, book the tax loss and then rebuy it after the waiting period expires.

It don't know if it will go up or down during the waiting period but I know that I should be able to counter balance some capital gains and/or write off some income at the expense of a higher future cost basis.

I think that is the only thing in my portfolio with a loss at this point.

I typically don't do this sort of thing very often but I'll have to thing about it some more.

MB
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Old 07-06-2008, 06:56 PM   #34
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Who knows? It could be the high for the next few years. Personally I think it's still on it's way down unless some miracle happens. For example the war ends and we win, all closed areas are opened up to drilling oil, the government bails out the lenders and borrowers, the FED sets interest rates at minus 2%, Bush sends out $50,000 stimulous checks to everyone, someone invents a large SUV that gets two hundred MPG and does zero to 60 in 2.5 seconds......all I need is a miracle.
Today in the Sun Sentinnel newspaper I read an article about a plant that grows in South America that may be "one" of the alternative fuels of the future...it's oil may power our cars. I don't remember the name of it...look it up in today's Sun Sentinnel(south Florida newspaper)...this plant grows for up to 40 years, needs little water, and doesn't get eaten by wild animals(sounds miraculous to me)....thing is it can take "years" to know and to grow enough of it....there will be alternatives "eventually"....until then the market may go down or sideways(who knows?...not me).

As for the posters question as to what I will be doing "tomorrow" with my portfolio....nothing...let it sit. I won't touch it no matter what...who knows, I might be one of those people that jumps off a tall building if this turns out to be the "next depression"...oh yeah but let me not omit that if I do jump, I will do so with a parachute, as I have other assets that will keep me afloat shall I loose "ALL" of my stock market holdings. Come to think of it, even if I didn't have other things I would still jump out with a parachute, for as long as I have my health, my family, and God in my life I have it "ALL". My advice is, consult your soul.
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Old 07-06-2008, 07:16 PM   #35
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Old 07-06-2008, 07:26 PM   #36
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Today in the Sun Sentinnel newspaper I read an article about a plant that grows in South America that may be "one" of the alternative fuels of the future...it's oil may power our cars. I don't remember the name of it...look it up in today's Sun Sentinnel(south Florida newspaper)...this plant grows for up to 40 years, needs little water, and doesn't get eaten by wild animals(sounds miraculous to me)....thing is it can take "years" to know and to grow enough of it....there will be alternatives "eventually"....until then the market may go down or sideways(who knows?...not me).
Well, there's jatropha, jojoba and castor...

Jatropha is probably the miracle one mentioned.
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Old 07-06-2008, 07:28 PM   #37
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Never a truer statement made...even more so when you are months away from ER.
Your right. However, as with most threads on this forum you have a diversified bunch. Some in retirement, some close to retirement, some with a big cola'd pension and health care, some living mostly on their assets. I guarantee a 40% market drop will get the attention of those in the latter group.
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Old 07-06-2008, 09:00 PM   #38
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Come on...lets be honest. While I still believe that buy-and-hold is probably the best strategy to either gain wealth, or maintain buying power in retirement (mainly because it is essentially impossible to pick a top or bottom), there is something to be said for capital preservation.

How many of you **really** believed the market could streak further skyward last October? With the credit crunch that appeared in Aug, the meltdown in sub-prime mortgages, home prices plummeting and foreclosures going out the roof?

I'll bet virtually all of you - deep in the gut - knew that it couldn't continue. That a major sell-off wasn't only necessary, but inevitable. This at a time when virtually all of the world's stock markets weren't only at an all-time high, but growing exponentially. Nothing does that over time - exponential growth always ends with a collapse. Just look at China, or maybe closer to home a bacteria colony.

Now its going to take a 27% gain in the DOW to get back to the Oct high.

My only real point here is that while rebalancing, it makes sense to look at the market, try to get a feel for where it is historically valuation wise, consider the economic *knowns*, and if it is more likely than not that downside potential outweighs upside, to at least reduce exposure.

Remember the old adage - not losing money is every bit as important than making money.
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Old 07-06-2008, 09:10 PM   #39
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At 55, and desperatly wanting to ER, I'm considering pulling out of the market and going to cd's for a while.
your thoughts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bentley View Post
The doom and gloomer's are predicting another 20% drop.
Last October, they were predicting a dow of 15 by year end '07....lol
I'm thinking that we'll need a lot more posts like these before the market reaches capitulation.

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Originally Posted by Bikerdude View Post
I'm not a "doom and gloomer" but history shows an additional 20% decline is not out of the question. What you do then is the bigger question. Once the crowd starts to dump stocks in earnest it will test your fortitude.
We did a 40% drop after 9/11... then our portfolio doubled over the next five years. Things seemed to work out OK.

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Come on...lets be honest. While I still believe that buy-and-hold is probably the best strategy to either gain wealth, or maintain buying power in retirement (mainly because it is essentially impossible to pick a top or bottom), there is something to be said for capital preservation.
How many of you **really** believed the market could streak further skyward last October? With the credit crunch that appeared in Aug, the meltdown in sub-prime mortgages, home prices plummeting and foreclosures going out the roof?
I'll bet virtually all of you - deep in the gut - knew that it couldn't continue. That a major sell-off wasn't only necessary, but inevitable. This at a time when virtually all of the world's stock markets weren't only at an all-time high, but growing exponentially. Nothing does that over time - exponential growth always ends with a collapse. Just look at China, or maybe closer to home a bacteria colony.
Now its going to take a 27% gain in the DOW to get back to the Oct high.
My only real point here is that while rebalancing, it makes sense to look at the market, try to get a feel for where it is historically valuation wise, consider the economic *knowns*, and if it is more likely than not that downside potential outweighs upside, to at least reduce exposure.
Remember the old adage - not losing money is every bit as important than making money.
Oh, please, you're trying to apply rational logic to a market that has neither. Spouse's ER'd uncle started shorting the overvalued NASDAQ in late 1998, when it couldn't possibly go higher by any rational logical analysis, and he shorted himself right back into the workforce until 2006.

We rebalanced in February because our asset allocation had gotten too far out of whack. That way we didn't have to be rational or technical or psychotic psychic. With the appropriate cushion of cash and a chosen asset allocation, the rebalancing should take care of the capital preservation.

Of course the ultimate in capital preservation would be an annuity.
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Old 07-06-2008, 09:13 PM   #40
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Of course the ultimate in capital preservation would be an annuity.
I detect a hint of snarcasm...
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