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Old 10-12-2008, 11:27 PM   #21
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A sustainable stock rally requires that the housing situation be solved.

Does anyone believe that the real estate market is turning around?
I believe that the real estate market will turn around much slower than the stock market. I believe the real estate market has just about bottomed out however I think it'll be flat for a while while the stock market will(I think) go up fairely steadily from here out.
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:19 AM   #22
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A sustainable stock rally requires that the housing situation be solved.

Does anyone believe that the real estate market is turning around?
Actually it doesn't require the housing crises to be solved, only that it seems likely that in a not to distant future date that housing prices will stabilize.
The market looks ahead.
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Old 10-13-2008, 05:45 AM   #23
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This incredibly complex crisis has been developing and festering for YEARS. Somehow, I just can't believe that this mess will suddenly go away because the various central banks have waved a magic wand -- and we will suddenly be "off to the races" again. The fundamental problems that created this crisis, for the most part, still exist. I believe it is going to take a lot of hard work, and a fairly substantial period of time, to resolve them. I wish I could still believe in Hollywood endings . . . but I suspect those who are counting on one may be disappointed.
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Old 10-13-2008, 06:09 AM   #24
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This incredibly complex crisis has been developing and festering for YEARS. Somehow, I just can't believe that this mess will suddenly go away because the various central banks have waved a magic wand -- and we will suddenly be "off to the races" again. The fundamental problems that created this crisis, for the most part, still exist. I believe it is going to take a lot of hard work, and a fairly substantial period of time, to resolve them. I wish I could still believe in Hollywood endings . . . but I suspect those who are counting on one may be disappointed.
I agree, though I really don't have a grasp on a lot of this. One thing that has bothered me since the high tech meltdown is it has felt like there was too much money floating around. The Government now plans on pumping a lot more money into the economy since the easy borrowing days are gone. It feels like the way Greenspan fixed the high tech bubble (which I never felt needed to be fixed) by lowering interest rates to almost record breaking lows and keeping them there for a while to increase liquidity. I think he may have believed the roaring 90's could go on forever.

I understand the need to pump some money into the banking sector so businesses can borrow, OTOH, overshooting this problem can cause problems of its own. At a minimum it seems inflation will set in down the road either after or during the recession.

Then there will be the impact of the new policies and Government intervention. I think we are living during a time that will be a point of reference in the future.
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Old 10-13-2008, 06:17 AM   #25
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I'm not getting too excited especially after reading this weeks article in Business Week about the up and coming credit card debacle.
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Old 10-13-2008, 07:21 AM   #26
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A sustainable stock rally requires that the housing situation be solved.

Does anyone believe that the real estate market is turning around?
did you forget the 1990's? deflation in the RE market frees up a lot of money for spending
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Old 10-13-2008, 07:22 AM   #27
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This incredibly complex crisis has been developing and festering for YEARS. Somehow, I just can't believe that this mess will suddenly go away because the various central banks have waved a magic wand -- and we will suddenly be "off to the races" again. The fundamental problems that created this crisis, for the most part, still exist. I believe it is going to take a lot of hard work, and a fairly substantial period of time, to resolve them. I wish I could still believe in Hollywood endings . . . but I suspect those who are counting on one may be disappointed.
the stock market was pricing in the end of the world, now that it's over it can rally until it figures out what stocks are reall worth.
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Old 10-13-2008, 08:01 AM   #28
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the stock market was pricing in the end of the world, now that it's over it can rally until it figures out what stocks are reall worth.
Since we are all still here, I suspect that stocks are worth more
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Old 10-13-2008, 09:54 AM   #29
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last month the SP500 2008 earnings were estimated to be around $63. my guess the real number will be closer to $50 by the end of the year. no one really cares about 2008 earnings now.

once the rally ends earnings will again be center stage and the fallout of the crisis won't come out until next year.

in the past the Fed would wait until options expiration week to cut rates and send the shorts on a mad buying spree to cover. they didn't have the luxury this time.

my prediction is the SP500 rallies to 1200 or so, Naz to around 2000 - 2100 in the next few months then starts to sell off a bit. by next year we'll see the economic and corporate damage that was done.

Circuit City will probably go under along with a few other weak retailers. wouldn't surprise me if Federated is going to have problems as well.
BAC is starting to have problems with the Countrywide purchase. I think US Bank will have problems next year as CRE problems come up.
GM, Ford and Chrysler are going to be front page stories on a regular basis. in the last few years average auto sales were around 17 million per year. estimates are now 13 million for the next few years. that's a lot of subcontractors that will lose a lot of business and layoffs to come.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:20 AM   #30
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Didn't CFB call the bottom here? Calling the bottom!
No, he was off by two days. I called it here. I da man.
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Old 10-13-2008, 04:40 PM   #31
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What will DOW futures look like overnight? Anyone want to guess?
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