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Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-18-2005, 04:34 PM   #1
 
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Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

It looks like the majority of retired posters on the Early Retirement Forum have been retired for only 15 years or less.

Isn't it premature to judge the success or failure of an early retirement strategy until the retiree either:

1) dies or

2) runs out of money?

I haven't read postings by people in either category
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-18-2005, 04:55 PM   #2
 
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

Quote:
It looks like the majority of retired posters on the Early Retirement Forum have been retired for only 15 years or less.

Isn't it premature to judge the success or failure of an early retirement strategy until the retiree either:

1) dies or

2) runs out of money?

I haven't read postings by people in either category *
Yes, either case cannot post. *

But, this is like all things in life. Your life cannot be judged a success on any level until your dead.

Would you say that someone had a successfull life if they were the Heisman Trophy winner, Was the most valueable player in the NFL and was a sure bet for the Hall of Fame? Even if that player was O.J. Simpson?

It's a lot like John F. Kennedy. Most conservatives overlook his White House Sexcapades because he was dead before he was caught. Bill Clinton on the other hand was a disgrace to the human race, because he is ah...er..., Human?

And then there is Richard Nixon. - Was he a success or failure?

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I think we've collected enough data for a decision
Old 02-19-2005, 08:09 AM   #3
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I think we've collected enough data for a decision

Quote:
Isn't it premature to judge the success or failure of an early retirement strategy until the retiree either:
1) dies or
2) runs out of money?
Apparently neither of those concerns have been enough to make either of us seek a paycheck. And I don't think they'd keep young dreamers from making the ER leap...

Success comes from the way you're living, not in the way you die!
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-19-2005, 01:22 PM   #4
 
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

Quote:
It looks like the majority of retired posters on the Early Retirement Forum have been retired for only 15 years or less.

Isn't it premature to judge the success or failure of an early retirement strategy until the retiree either:

1) dies or

2) runs out of money?

I haven't read postings by people in either category
Not sure what you're trying to elicit here. Is it that an ER is not successful until after x years? I don't think that there is such a criteria since there are so many variables (ie. how young or how old you're when you retire among others). For me, if I'm still retired 5 years from now with a networth that will enable me to have a SWR going forward, I'll consider myself a successful ER. At that point, go back to the previous statement and start over again.
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-19-2005, 04:16 PM   #5
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

Quote:
Yes, either case cannot post.
Hah...if I run out of money I'll just hang out at the library posting.

If I'm dead, I still plan to post regularly. I just wont smell very good.
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-19-2005, 07:59 PM   #6
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

Quote:

Hah...if I run out of money I'll just hang out at the library posting.

If I'm dead, I still plan to post regularly. *I just wont smell very good.
I was at the library today and from the smell I could've sworn the guy next to me had been dead for at least a couple of months. Was that you, TH?
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-20-2005, 10:06 AM   #7
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

I do not think that you have to be dead or actually run out of money to know that if you had planned your retirement adequately. Do a cost flow analysis to compare the forecast vs actuals of your income (in flow) and expenses (out flow).
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?
Old 02-20-2005, 11:26 AM   #8
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Re: Too early to judge success/failure of ER?

I think you'll know.

If you get through a bad patch and the #'s still look good that your port will recover, you're gonna be ok.

If you're going through a good patch and layering on a lot of extra money in the port, you're helping yourself get through that bad patch.

If 15-20 years have gone by and you've got a stable port and kept up with inflation, you're 95% sure to get the rest of the way.
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