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Old 07-17-2016, 10:50 AM   #1
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Total bond

As far back as I can remember it has never been a good time to buy bonds. Most advice has been "you need them" but "it is not a good time right now".

hmmm.....Vanguard total bond VBTLX

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 year Since Inception 11/12/2001

6.12% 4.03% 3.73% 5.12% 4.59%

If this was looking 15 years into the future I would be happy.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:33 AM   #2
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I like my CA munis, they pay ~4.5%, the value is stable and zero taxes.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:41 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by ducky911 View Post
As far back as I can remember it has never been a good time to buy bonds. Most advice has been "you need them" but "it is not a good time right now".

hmmm.....Vanguard total bond VBTLX

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 year Since Inception 11/12/2001

6.12% 4.03% 3.73% 5.12% 4.59%

If this was looking 15 years into the future I would be happy.
a 36 year down trend except for some speed bumps made that possible . but if the party ends at midnight it may be 11pm at this stage unless rates here turn negative .

while we may have thought rates were going higher they still had more downside to go but eventually they will flip upward and stay there .

despite the bump upwards that trend we had was clearly downward .

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Old 07-17-2016, 12:36 PM   #4
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That bump up during the most recent year is what would be expected near a top.
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Old 07-17-2016, 01:05 PM   #5
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I like my CA munis, they pay ~4.5%, the value is stable and zero taxes.

Individual issues?
I just caved and bought my states muni fund by Fidelity. Pays about 3.2 but it'll probably tank now. I had 0 bonds before due to issues cited by OP.


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Old 07-17-2016, 01:16 PM   #6
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I have individual bonds with Morgan Stanley and bond funds at Fidelity.

The performance is very similar.
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Old 07-17-2016, 07:17 PM   #7
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Most advice has been "you need them" but "it is not a good time right now".
Since no one can predict the movement of interest rate on a consistent basis, it's not very prudent to follow the advises of these "so called" experts.
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Old 07-17-2016, 07:44 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
a 36 year down trend except for some speed bumps made that possible . but if the party ends at midnight it may be 11pm at this stage unless rates here turn negative .

while we may have thought rates were going higher they still had more downside to go but eventually they will flip upward and stay there .

despite the bump upwards that trend we had was clearly downward .

Thank you for that informative chart. It was worth the subscription I pay to ER.org /s. I've got a fair amount of my retirement in TIAA, it's consistently earned 4%+ over the past few years - but it's legacy money that hasn't been touched for years. I've got a Roth and 457 in TIAA (different account) and it guarantees 3% but has been closer to 4% in actual.
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