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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-14-2006, 08:01 PM   #21
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

Buy and hold is the "euphoria and vodka approach." When things are going great you are in euphoria. When things are tanking, the vodka blots out the losses.

I am diversified but I will (dare I admit) reduce or expand my common stock exposure based on my assessment of the world. I will say that reductions in common stock exposure is very rare. I'm usually 80%+ invested in common stocks as I am now.

I also have an ample supply of vodka.
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-14-2006, 10:17 PM   #22
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

This could be the time to go long Smirnoff!
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-14-2006, 10:33 PM   #23
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

With buy-and-hold you can look at its results over any period of time (not just the current US markets) and see its amazing results.

Most of the time when people talk about some other "system" the results are really ugly, or they try to steer you away from looking at the results, or it applies only to some really narrow period of time like "this system had gains of 72% per year throughout the dotcom bubble!! buy it now!!!"

Show us your results with your brilliant scheme that makes buy-and-hold look like an "inadequately studied system."
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-14-2006, 11:18 PM   #24
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
With buy-and-hold you can look at its results over any period of time (not just the current US markets) and see its amazing results.

Most of the time when people talk about some other "system" the results are really ugly, or they try to steer you away from looking at the results, or it applies only to some really narrow period of time like "this system had gains of 72% per year throughout the dotcom bubble!! buy it now!!!"

Show us your results with your brilliant scheme that makes buy-and-hold look like an "inadequately studied system."
No*
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-14-2006, 11:48 PM   #25
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
No
Exactly
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 01:44 AM   #26
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

No, I think you may misunderstand. I don't give a crap how misinformed you are now or may continue to be in the future. I would not wish to try to explain something to you that you probably could not understand anyway.

BTW, I am not promoting any system of any kind, just pointing out that all methods have their good and bad points.

One of my rules is to never try to share information with a know-it-all. He will learn it soon enough anyway.* 8) Before you came along, the last person who caused me to invoke this rule was John Galt.

Ha

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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 02:13 AM   #27
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

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Originally Posted by HaHa
No, I think you may misunderstand. I don't give a crap how misinformed you are now or may continue to be in the future. I would not wish to try to explain something to you that you probably could not understand anyway.
lol
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 03:03 AM   #28
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

the forbes list of the worlds richest people is still awaiting its first market timer
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 10:03 AM   #29
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN



Hey Ha: Cool Dude has an excuse, unlike JG.

Cool Dude is 24 years old


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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 04:17 PM   #30
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

Market timing can either increase your gains relative to buy and hold, or lower your volatility and risk, but it can't do both.
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 08:33 PM   #31
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

About 3 years ago, I was lamenting to a co-worker that the stock market was probably going to stay in a long term flat or downward trend, and that I was looking for something else.* Maybe real estate.* He told me about Managed Futures through Computerized Trading systems.*

I did about 3 months of research, and decided to make the plunge.* I reasoned that I did not want to start with a small amount, and risk losing too big a percentage of the acct value and gett cold feet and bail.* So, instead, I started with a much larger account size, thinking I could weather the drawdonws more easily, and in the end come out ahead.*

Needless to say, I entered the system supposedly at the beginning of the biggest drawdown ever experienced by this trading system.* Let me tell you, when you are in a major drawdown, you can lose money FAST.* I kept telling myself that drawdowns are normal, and you had to stay with the plan.* After I lost about 40% in about 3 months, I finally pulled the plug.

In hindsight, I realized a couple things I let happen that, had I handled it differently, I might still be trading that account.* (And in fact, I think I probably got out right before it turned around.)

1) you need to ease into the positions.* My broker, once he turned on the program, instantly put me into ALL of the positions that the system had open.

2) You need to be very conservative about the amount risked on each trade. The broker will tell you you won't get enough bang for the buck if you only risk .5% on any trade, and will try to get you to risk 2%.* 2% doesn't sound like much, but when you string a series of losing trades together, boy does it add up fast!!* I had too much "heat" in the account.*

By the way, the broker and the software developer did very well with me!* Although, I think the extensive, long lasting drawdown almost killed the sotware creator's product which, until that time, had supposedly been one of the high flyers.

Anyway, bottom line is, I'm sure you CAN make money with these systems.* You have to have nerves of steel though.* For my money, finding a good asset allocation and rebalancing periodically is the way to go.* Not nearly as exciting as futures, but you sleep a heck of a lot better....
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-15-2006, 09:03 PM   #32
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

That sounds like pretty much the way it's supposed to work out...
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN
Old 04-16-2006, 06:43 AM   #33
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Re: TREND TRADING TO WIN

Quote:
Originally Posted by getoutearly

Anyway, bottom line is, I'm sure you CAN make money with these systems.* You have to have nerves of steel though.* For my money, finding a good asset allocation and rebalancing periodically is the way to go.* Not nearly as exciting as futures, but you sleep a heck of a lot better....
It's interesting that I've known many people that have tried things similar to what you described. Many years ago I put money into a managed commodity "system." I got killed but I didn't risk a major part of my assets. Out of all of the people that will admit to being involved with these systems. No one has ever told me about all the money they made. I also haven't had one person tell me they didn't lose a major portion of their original investment.
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