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Old 01-24-2010, 09:51 PM   #21
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The collective wisdom gained from a very unscientific 30 minute survey of a variety of media sources and plogs is that there is no consensus on which way stock markeks, interest rates, currencies, CPI or anything else will go. There isn't even a consensus on whether markets will fluctuate.

I stopped adding to my portfolio in early December and have been content to build up cash since then. Experience has taught me that chasing bull markets is a usually a bad idea and that value will usually come to those who wait.

I'll refrain from commenting on the "dig a deeper hole" approach to managing the economy which is been taken in a number of countries.
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Old 01-24-2010, 10:01 PM   #22
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I hope Im wrong, I really don't wanna see things get really bad but I can't afford to be too optimistic these days...

I was 38% going into last year I left it alone until October and bought in and a little more in December...

I had high hope for this year but the way things are going lately is getting me really nervous

It's hard to voice my concerns here without it getting political so I will leave it at that

I'd much rather depend on my own asset allocation settings than trying to read which way the political climate impacts the market.
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Old 01-24-2010, 10:04 PM   #23
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This is almost as hard as determining what my GF's mood will be based on where she is on her monthly cycle
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Old 01-24-2010, 10:07 PM   #24
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I think were past the point of a political solution
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Old 01-24-2010, 10:12 PM   #25
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I too believe the market is in for some troubling times ahead. I have felt this way for over 10 years. On many occasions I have been right. It was only in the internet hype years that I was sure the market was going higher. I was right for a while on that one too. Now I have concluded that I don't know what the market is going to do. Do I think stocks are overpriced? Yes. I thought that in July and September too. The only thing I seem to be able to do is select an appropriate allocation and stay the course.
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Old 01-24-2010, 11:04 PM   #26
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My anticipation is really unchanged from my analysis of September - October. At mid-October I thought the high was in at 10,119. While it was not the top in the market it really has done nothing but meander 3 months until last week. I remained convinced the state deficits and the transfer of wealth from the US government to the financial institutions of the United States cannot maintain itself. The largest states in the United States are about to sink into deflationary hell as receipts will continue to fall while their debts are far too high.

There is no money anywhere in the system of government of the United States and no great resources to obtain more other than from sources that will incur a downward spiral in the economy. The concern about inflation, which cannot gain hold despite a budget deficit for 2009 of 1.5 trillion (which when the budget was passed in 2008 was estimated to be 458 billion) is now being estimated to increase to 1.7 trillion. The fourth quarter budget deficit of 09 was the worst quarter ever and December is the worst budget deficit month of all time. Revenues have fallen for 20 straight months when compared to tax receipts for the same month in the previous year for the federal government. Economic activity is slowing, receipts are falling and the lack of money will very shortly become painfully obvious to most investors..

This belief I hold is a very dire position so I have not posted in the past few months, however with the market now having I believe begining its move towards the fundamentals and moving down, I'll am very interested in what occurs in the following 12 months. Having made 20% on my investments in 2009 the old fashioned way, I am now invested very heavily (10%) of my portfolio in long term puts, which I purchased at the start of last week.

The only solution I see myself right now and puts and T-bills and make money while prices fall. For myself I do not see this as a gloomy forecast, I see it as a forecast to purchase the financial assets I believe will perform the best in the coming year.
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Old 01-25-2010, 12:19 AM   #27
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Do I think stocks are overpriced? Yes. I thought that in July and September too. The only thing I seem to be able to do is select an appropriate allocation and stay the course.
Really, that isn't the only thing you can do. Once you have rationally determined that stocks are overpriced, to hold further, beyond your minmum allocation to equities, is speculating.

Of course your minimum and maximum equity alocations may be identical.

Ha
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Old 01-25-2010, 06:56 AM   #28
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Well said, Running Man. I'm the crystal ball gal that thought the S&P would be at 750 by October 2009. Obviously, I was quite wrong. The unprecedented government intervention has just delayed the inevitable.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:03 AM   #29
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Snore. Shut off the "news," determine a long term asset allocation you are comfy with, and get on with life. There are a lot of rosebuds to be gathered out there.

And to add to your paranoia: it appears to me that bonds are likely a lot more overpriced than equities.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:32 AM   #30
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Everything's overpriced...

There is more debt than $$$ out there...
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:35 AM   #31
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Snore. Shut off the "news," determine a long term asset allocation you are comfy with, and get on with life. There are a lot of rosebuds to be gathered out there.
+1
My reaction to last week was to start thinking about what the market will do when Bernanke gets re-upped. I was tempted to move more into equities but then remembered what Brewer said and left things alone. I am already a little high on equities because I haven't rebalanced recently.
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Old 01-25-2010, 07:41 AM   #32
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Is your house worth more now than it was last year??

If you wanted to sell who would buy it
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Old 01-25-2010, 08:31 AM   #33
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Is your house worth more now than it was last year??

If you wanted to sell who would buy it

Don't know and don't care. Its worth more than I paid according to a recent appraisal and I have no plans to move.
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Old 01-25-2010, 08:44 AM   #34
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Wallmart is laying people off... But things are getting better out there
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Old 01-25-2010, 08:56 AM   #35
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Wallmart is laying people off... But things are getting better out there
I think there may be gaps in your tinfoil headgear.
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Old 01-25-2010, 09:00 AM   #36
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Wallmart is laying people off... But things are getting better out there
Reading only the headlines?? They are restructuring a small line of business doing product demonstrations in Sam's Club stores. Now they will outsource this work to a firm that specializes in product demos. All laid off people will be encouraged to apply for jobs at the outsourced firm. The net effect on unemployment will be negligible. And even if all these folks were laid off and no new jobs were being created at the outsourcing firm, the number laid off represents just under 1% of Walmart's workforce. Not exactly an end-of-the-world economic indicator.

As to what I think will happen in the market and economy in the short term? No clue. Up and down most likely. 10-20 years from now? My money is on "up". Another "buying opportunity of a lifetime" would be welcomed. I'd like to see another Business Week: "The Death Of Equities" front page cover story come out soon. Hard to imagine that happening given the bumper year we had in 2009. Maybe a prolonged bear market for the next 10 years. That would be an excellent buying opportunity for those still acquiring wealth (assuming we can keep a job and get paid).
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Old 01-25-2010, 09:29 AM   #37
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All service jobs that don't pay anyway...

All Im saying is Id rather sit here wishing I had more invested, than be sitting here wishing I wasn't so invested

Im gonna have higher quality naps this way
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:23 AM   #38
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If we do see 666 on the S&P again will the President say "Now would be a really good time to buy stocks" on national TV like last year
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:28 AM   #39
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All Im saying is Id rather sit here wishing I had more invested, than be sitting here wishing I wasn't so invested
If it worked that way, then everyone would be in cash. My point is, that you can feel just as much regret if the market doubles and you didn't participate as when your equity investments drop.
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Old 01-25-2010, 10:30 AM   #40
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Just keep reminding yourself that a LOT of folks do EXACTLY the WRONG thing at EXACTLY the RIGHT time..........

Avoid the media, most of the so-called "gurus" couldn't call the market in the 80's, much less now..........
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