Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 06-09-2009, 03:43 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,263
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
dex,

I understand that it is virtually impossible to qualify for SSI disability. Expect it to get harder.
Then the inlaws of my sister have found the loophole in the 'virtually impossible' as there are 4 of the 6 kids from her husband's family on SSI disability...

The other way they pay for themselves is to do a stint in jail...
__________________

__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-09-2009, 03:48 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,263
The problem is that bringing it to the front that to save SS etc. we will want people to work longer and die younger is not a good political move...


As an example... remember the smoking lawsuits that the states had against the tobacco companies Basically they sued them saying that because smoking caused cancer etc., the states had to pay our more on healthcare... and the tobacco companies were liable for this extra cost....

Well, some lawyer figured out the smoking actually saved the states money as smokers died younger and quicker... but they did not use this defense for some reason...
__________________

__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 03:49 PM   #23
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
I would think most companies stop health insurance when you qualify for medicare.... the last two I have been with did not offer it....
Age discrimination.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 03:51 PM   #24
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
The problem is that bringing it to the front that to save SS etc. we will want people to work longer and die younger is not a good political move...
As I see it we have competing interests that seem mutually exclusive.

On one hand, we could say we want people to w*rk longer to make SS more secure. On the other hand, we want to reduce involuntary unemployment among people who still need to w*rk. Yet these seem at odds with each other; raising the full retirement age to 70 would create that many more people aged 62-70 who still need to find w*rk or stay employed longer than they had planned, thus making the job situation even worse.

It's quite a corner we've backed ourselves into.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 03:58 PM   #25
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
I think the big problem is that people assume they can work "forever" but they will find out that they can't; maybe because there isn't an employer that will want them or they are no longer physically or mentally able to do the job.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 04:18 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
There is no fixed number of jobs. If/when more people come in to the labor market, wages will go down and more people will be hired (eventually) as the US becomes more competitive with foreign labor rates. We don't have to match Sri Lankan hourly rates for US workers and businesses to become more competitive and for our economy to flourish and employment rates to stay high. The US infrastructure, transparent corporate governance, good capital markets, and high English literacy are all significant plus factors that will allow us to do well in a global economy--but not if we are paying workers $30 per hour. So, we'll see a drop in hourly pay from the artificially high levels that we enjoyed from WW-II through the mid-70s. America, welcome back to the real world, the same one our grandparents knew. In this environment, you want to be an investor and have your capital producing your income. If you are earning a living by the sweat of your brow, life will not be a picnic.

The older folks will be there alongside everyone else.
I think Sam is right. There is no reason we can't have more job in the US (or the world for that matter) it is really a function of wages, productivity and the amount of capital available.

We are already starting to see some company bring back some jobs to the states that outsourced to India. The generic call center/chat center jobs are ideally handled by senior citizen. Their life experience often make the more emphatic than a 20 year with his first non McDonald job. Even if the worse NY or southern accent is more understandable to me than a typical Indian accent. I imagine companies are even willing to pay premium for American workers, the problem is that number is certainly closer to 50-100% higher wage, not the 5 or even 10x differential we have seen in the past.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2009, 05:10 PM   #27
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,428
The only thing I've seen this year is from Gary Shilling’s newsletter
Quote:
A recent study found that the average 55-year old worker will need to work two years more to replace 401(k) losses in 2008.
The study is not attributed, does not cover the entire work force, only includes 401K – does not mention taxable investments, IRAs, loss of home equity, etc. Still, using these numbers as a starting point, some assumptions and numbers:


A person stays in the workforce beyond current expectations, earning $15 per hour.
$15 x 40 hours x 52 weeks @15.2% tax = $4772 in additional payroll tax. The US labor force is 150 million people. If 10% work 2 additional years they contribute an additional $143B to SS & Medicare. Compare this with the newly revised SS trustee projected 10 year surplus at $25B.

The trustees factored in the lower recession-driven contributions but do not allow for postponed retirements to offset loss of wealth, nor is it included in their list of potential remedies.


Jobs are and will continue to be there. Of course, wages will be low because competition will be high. An additional likely effect is lower wage inflation, which should keep total inflation lower as well and reduce the possibility of chronic inflation.
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 09:40 AM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,815
If I understand this correctly, the thought is that the switch from DB to DC pension plans makes workers less prepared for retirement. This means that we should see people working longer, increasing the revenue to SS and Medicare.

I think MichaelB is correct in trying to do some math. I'd look at it from this angle: Suppose workers had been averaging 40 years of work before retirement. Due to the DB/DC issue, they will average 42 years in the future. That's an increase of 5% in working years, and hence 5% additional payroll taxes. The SS shortfall is about 1/3 of payroll tax. So increasing tax revenue by 5% is worth something, but it wouldn't close the gap.
__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 09:51 AM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,263
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
I think Sam is right. There is no reason we can't have more job in the US (or the world for that matter) it is really a function of wages, productivity and the amount of capital available.

We are already starting to see some company bring back some jobs to the states that outsourced to India. The generic call center/chat center jobs are ideally handled by senior citizen. Their life experience often make the more emphatic than a 20 year with his first non McDonald job. Even if the worse NY or southern accent is more understandable to me than a typical Indian accent. I imagine companies are even willing to pay premium for American workers, the problem is that number is certainly closer to 50-100% higher wage, not the 5 or even 10x differential we have seen in the past.

An interesting post as I was talking to my sister last night about her job search... she worked for the same employer for over 20 years and was laid off a few months ago.... she was programming and tech writing... so a headhunter calls and wants her to work on a tech phone bank... for $10 per hour!!! As she said, I make more in unemployment than that... so no thanks..

But, if you are expecting to get educated people to work phone banks, I think you will have to pay more than $10... since she was told she could be working at any time of day or night.. as they are a 24/7 phone bank...
__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 09:57 AM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent View Post
Suppose workers had been averaging 40 years of work before retirement. Due to the DB/DC issue, they will average 42 years in the future. That's an increase of 5% in working years, and hence 5% additional payroll taxes. The SS shortfall is about 1/3 of payroll tax. So increasing tax revenue by 5% is worth something, but it wouldn't close the gap.
Right, an analysis is in order. At a back-of-the-envelope level of fidelity, I'd guess that the average extension of working time will probably exceed 2 years if what I read about the savings rate of Americans is accurate. Also, as far as SS taxes paid, if workers hang on to their regular careers (rather than getting a part-time job), then those last few added years will be at relatively high pay (generating more taxes) compared to the earlier years-- so even just a 5% increase in working years might increase their payroll taxes paid by 7-10%. And, they'll be paying regular income taxes, too, which will help with the overall federal budget picture.

Still, I agree it's unlikely to solve the entire problem. Another part of the answer might come at the other end--decreasing number of years people get SS checks. If the government would stop all this smoking cessation stuff, let Phillip Morris back on TV (broadcasters need the ad revenue--this is a stimulus!), and stop nagging McDonalds about trans fats, we could make some progress there. While at first it might seem that the new CAFE standards are going to be a helpful step in increasing mortality, it's not going to work. Most of the people killed as a result of that government mandate will be youngsters (paying into the system), not the helpful deaths we need among the older population. I think it's likely the social policy engineers are ahead of us--there's real potential that the new national health care program and the ensuing rationing of care for those who have become net "takers" could start moving the numbers in the right direction. A modest proposal.

This would be a good thesis topic for a quantitatively-inclined student seeking an MA in public policy, or maybe econ.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 10:38 AM   #31
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent View Post
I think MichaelB is correct in trying to do some math. I'd look at it from this angle: Suppose workers had been averaging 40 years of work before retirement. Due to the DB/DC issue, they will average 42 years in the future. That's an increase of 5% in working years, and hence 5% additional payroll taxes.
This assumes there are suddenly 5% more jobs out there to accommodate the labor pool becoming 5% larger. Otherwise you're not so much collecting more revenue for SS and Medicare as you are writing more unemployment checks. And that's before even factoring in the potential that there would be a lot more people in the workforce facing age discrimination issues.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 10:59 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
This assumes there are suddenly 5% more jobs out there to accommodate the labor pool becoming 5% larger. Otherwise you're not so much collecting more revenue for SS and Medicare as you are writing more unemployment checks. And that's before even factoring in the potential that there would be a lot more people in the workforce facing age discrimination issues.
You are hitting on one of the major problems facing the world a 50% increase in population by 2050 - majority in the developing world.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 11:17 AM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
But more people require more goods and services=more jobs. There's no reason to think the markets will stop working as they've worked in the past.

The trick will be for the US to find a niche where we enjoy a comparative competitive advantage. We probably don't want to be part of the race to the bottom, trying to outcompete Vietnamese earning $3 per day assembling plastic toys. I'm not optimistic that our education system (and society in general) is cranking out large numbers of workers with the reasoning and communication skills needed for the knowledge-based economy (and whatever comes next). Now, if there's some industrial requirement for people with indepth knowledge of the Brangelina intrigue or Guitar Hero skills, we are all set.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 11:53 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/10/bu...nhardt.html?hp
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 12:00 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,815
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post

Still, I agree it's unlikely to solve the entire problem. Another part of the answer might come at the other end--decreasing number of years people get SS checks. If the government would stop all this smoking cessation stuff, let Phillip Morris back on TV (broadcasters need the ad revenue--this is a stimulus!), and stop nagging McDonalds about trans fats, we could make some progress there. While at first it might seem that the new CAFE standards are going to be a helpful step in increasing mortality, it's not going to work. Most of the people killed as a result of that government mandate will be youngsters (paying into the system), not the helpful deaths we need among the older population. I think it's likely the social policy engineers are ahead of us--there's real potential that the new national health care program and the ensuing rationing of care for those who have become net "takers" could start moving the numbers in the right direction. A modest proposal.

This would be a good thesis topic for a quantitatively-inclined student seeking an MA in public policy, or maybe econ.
I tend to agree. I'd guess that things which tend to kill people toward the end of their working careers ("early" heart attacks, lung cancer) save the taxpayers in total. With all the research out there, you'd think that someone would have studied this, but I've never seen it.
__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2009, 12:09 PM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,815
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
This assumes there are suddenly 5% more jobs out there to accommodate the labor pool becoming 5% larger. Otherwise you're not so much collecting more revenue for SS and Medicare as you are writing more unemployment checks. And that's before even factoring in the potential that there would be a lot more people in the workforce facing age discrimination issues.
I wouldn't expect the jobs to appear "suddenly", but I would expect them over the long term. This is one of the places where long term and short term effects are different. In today's economy, older workers who suddenly decided to defer retirement because of the market drop are probably taking jobs that could have gone to younger workers.

But, over the long run, "supply creates demand". Experience has shown that when we get more workers, and greater productivity per worker, we simply consume more.

One other complication, over the last 60 years Americans have earned more in almost any job category than people in other countries. As we get more globalized, that gap has to narrow. But this is going to happen whether we retire at 63 or 65.
__________________

__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Social Security Earnings Penalty - Confused & Bewildered ocdude FIRE and Money 12 10-15-2009 11:44 PM
Social Security/Texas Teacher Retirement 2B FIRE and Money 18 08-28-2008 04:17 PM
The Comptroller General and the future of Social Security/Medicare wilkens21 Young Dreamers 2 03-06-2008 06:26 AM
Scott Burns: Medicare premiums rise faster than Social Security COLA Nords FIRE and Money 1 06-07-2006 05:44 PM
Early retirement and Social Security jimhcom FIRE and Money 6 05-23-2006 10:13 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:13 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.