HFWR
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Ask the Expert: The meaning of 'living within your means' - Feb. 19, 2009
Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009
...many Americans are now having to face after more than a decade of frenzied borrowing and spending -- namely, the need to downsize a lifestyle that's proven to be unsustainable.
Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009
My research certainly prepared me for widespread forecasting failures. We found that our experts' predictions barely beat random guesses - the statistical equivalent of a dart-throwing chimp - and proved no better than predictions of reasonably well-read nonexperts. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be.