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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-13-2005, 10:33 PM   #41
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigMoneyJim
Yikes, that did sound like you-know-who. Only without the cheery facade.
Did he call folks on this board "sycophants". I had to look that one up. Dont remember that on the SAT.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 12:31 AM   #42
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

I am still intersted in knowing what Donner does for a living. He is very verbally skilled.

Ha
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 08:23 AM   #43
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

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Originally Posted by HaHa
I am still intersted in knowing what Donner does for a living. He is very verbally skilled.
Part of an international literary conspiracy.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 11:45 AM   #44
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Well, I like reading this stuff. I see the same data Donner does and do not draw the same conclusion. But that does not make his argument uninteresting. Clearly there have been interventions in the market. But ultimately I see the market as bigger than the minuplators. Japan, the UK, and several Asian countries have attempted to control either exchange rates, commodity prices (esp gold) and interest rates. All with varying rates of success. I understand Soros made $1B in one day betting against the UK exchange rate.The interventions the US has supported seemed to be ad hoc arrangments. Maybe there is a hidden conspiracy? Well, even if there is I would still invest in the market in diversified ways. The market is bigger than both its successful and unsucessful interventions over time.
Now if you're trying to make a killing on insider trading, hedge funds, deritives and the like then the existance of a market control conspiracy is critical to your investment strategy. But if you use diversified total market indexes it shouldn't matter over time.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 04:59 PM   #45
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

One word: decaf
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 05:10 PM   #46
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Donner,
I have always liked reading your postings. Keep writing.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 09:29 PM   #47
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Have to say I can't always muddle through Donner's posts on the first sitting, but he clearly puts a lot of thought into what he writes and can back up how he concludes what he does.

I also think that there is some positive reinforcement for his own investment/retirement positions in what he does write.

I think that anything that causes us all to sit back and examine our own strategies and the motivations and reasoning for them is a "good thing" .

Donner, fyi thanks to your postings we have put our house on the market and are moving out of Arlington down to Charlotte, NC (just kidding, not thanks to your posts, but we are leaving the area due to my early retirement and DH getting a new job).
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 10:42 PM   #48
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

There is a short article in the current (October, 2005, pg47) issue of "Kiplinger's Personal Finance", called "Why Bears growl".

Obviously (to me at least), most of us fluctuate between "bear" and "bull" depending on the market and our own current disposition. But there are obviously some "permabulls" and "permabears" out there. This can directly relate to ER, since those in the bullish camp may feel that a higher SWR is justified. Those who are bearish may feel that Safe Withdrawal rates are "unsafe at any speed."

As a point of reference, I see slow growth ahead in the immediate future - I don't forsee any major market fluctuations up or down in the near term. What I see that really amazes me though are those who are in either camp[bull/bear], and are unswayed, regardless of the market situation or facts to the contrary. It really appears to be the "personification" of Fear vs Greed.

The article asks "So what compels the bears to sit on the sidelines and throw brickbats?"

Quote:
Bears will cite the federal budget and trade deficites, both at record levels, as well as $60-a-barrel oil and bubbly housing prices.

Look further, though and you'll begin to see what really separates the bulls from the bears: a stark difference in perspective about what it means to succeed as an investor. Bulls don't spend much time worrying about what's around the corner. If there's money to be made now, they want to make it... But for bears, the way to win is by not losing.
The article goes on to quote several bears.

Quote:
"It's not how much you make in a bull market, it's how much you avoid losing in a bear market," says Charles Allmon. Allmon has kept at least three-fourths of the money he manages in cash since the mid 1980s. Allmon bested the S&P500 for most of the 1970s and '80s... over the past five years, which encompass the 2000-2002 downturn, Allmon's returns beat the market. But for the past decade, his results badly trail the 10% annualized gain of the Wilshire 5000...
Quote:
[Elliot Wave theorist Robert Prechter's] 2002 best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, forecast not merely a reversion to the mean but a flat-out collapse, with the Dow Jones Industrial average falling below 1000...
But to believe Prechter's dystopian message means signing on to a theory that has never been subjected to rigorous examination.
...between 1980 and July 31, 2005, followers of Prechter's long-term calls gained 9% annualized, compared with 13% for the Wilshire 5000, but with half the volatility. Another Prechter service, geared toward active traders, lost an annualized 18% since 1985, 31 percentage points per year behind the index.
"You can't get everything right," he says.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 11:41 PM   #49
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?


Nords has crossed a line on this Board as far as I am concerned. I find his attitude and rhetoric as directed toward me to be threatening, intimidating and filled with malice, menace and pure personal venom. I feel that he has impugned my character and is trying to influence others on this Board to adopt a biased, negative and contemptuous attitude toward me as a person irrespective of the content or quality of the items I post on this Board. I believe what he is writing about me constitutes slander as defined in my dictionary: the utterance of false charges or misrepresentations which defame and damage another’s reputation. He’s not cute, he’s not witty and he is not funny. He is mean spirited intending to do harm to my personal reputation and I believe to the reputation of anyone who disagrees with his view of the issues discussed on this Board. I derive great personal benefit and satisfaction from participating in the discussions on this Board. Negatively influencing members opinions about me on the basis of spurious and specious characterizations of my expressed views and in highly insulting personal terms greatly diminishes that benefit to me.

I believe that the administrators, moderators and members of this public discussion Board, severally and jointly, bear a responsibility to protect members from undue an unwarranted harm caused by the intemperate words of one or more members towards another member, in this particular case me. I believe there have been other cases in the past where that responsibility should have been exercised but was not. I further believe that Nords needs to be counseled to desist from further attacks on my character and/or anyone else’s and ultimately be restrained from perptuating such attacks, if necessary. I believe it is well past time for those responsible for the administration of this Board to step up to the plate and take responsibility for maintaining some semblance of civil discourse and decorum.

This Board.has a problem on its hands. In my opinion there is at least one classic schoolyard bully operating on this discussion Board. There are several symptoms of schoolyard bullying. Try the link below. Click on “Signs that you bully others”. Take the quiz. If you check off any of the boxes you may qualify as a bully. If he is honest with himself, a bully will check off all the boxes.

http://www.stopbullyingnow.hrsa.gov/index.asp?area=main

Click on the What Adults Can Do link. Then click on “All about bullying” and check out the description of “Children Who Bully”. What are some of the “Common Characteristics of Children Who Bully”?

“Many children engage in bullying everyday. Although each child is different, those who bully people do share some common characteristics. Here are some things to look for:

Common Characteristics of Children Who Bully

• Impulsive, hot-headed, dominant
• Easily frustrated;
• Lack empathy;
• Have difficulty following rules; and
• View violence in a positive way.
• Boys who bully tend to be physically stronger than other children.”

Does it fit?

The link above has some pretty interesting stuff on bullying. One manifestation of it is on the internet, in web logs and e:mails. IMO, that’s what we have on the ER Board – a cyberbully. How do we recognize a cyberbully?:

“Children and youth also may be involved in cyberbullying, which occurs when children or teens bully each other using the Internet, mobile phones or other cyber technology. This can include:

• Sending mean text, e-mail, or instant messages;
• Posting nasty pictures or messages about others in blogs or on Web sites;
• Using someone else’s user name to spread rumors or lies about someone.

Cyberbullying is a pathology. You need to claim it before you can be cured of it.

But there is help for this pitiable condition. Just try the link below. It will help you to understand why a cyberbully may feel compelled to bully people and what he can do to help himself.

http://members.tripod.com/lou_rich/

Click on the “Why am I a bully?” link. There are some explanations for cyberbullies there. One of the recommendations for a bully to deal with his problem is to seek the help of a health care professional. Get help. Cyberbullies need it. Badly. Another recommendation that I wholeheartedly endorse: What can you do about a bully? Stand up to him. There are also some good recommendations for members of a group who stand by and witness bullying behavior. Worth a read for members of this Board, its administrator and its moderators.

For the rest of the members of the Board, all I can say is when you are dealing with a cyberbullly just be aware of his affliction. Try to be patient and not respond in kind. If he goes off on you, like my own current experience with Nords, then you might want to revisit these sites for some additional insights. It’s hard to cope with a cyberbully on a day-to-day basis. The victim or victims of a cyberbully on this Board has a problem. So does the cyberbully himself. And so does the ER Board whether you want to face it and deal with it, or not.

Donner
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-14-2005, 11:57 PM   #50
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Huh?

Nords has threatened you? Intimidated you? Malice and Menace? I did track some sarcasm, but I must have missed the posts where he said he knows where you live and is going to get Spanish Inquisition on your posterior. And he left the thread, to boot! I thought bullies ruled the playground, not vacated it!

Chill man, you gotta accept the fact that as soon as you start talking conspiracy, you will meet skeptics.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 12:37 AM   #51
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Donner, my last remark wasn't constructive at all. You are insightful and welcome at the board. I disagree with a lot of your points of view, but the goal here I think is informative conversation and not to create a personality cult or cheering squad.

As far as taking action to intervene in discussions when they turn ugly, the biggest problem is that no one can agree when the right time to take action is. It's very subjective and inherently biased. Intervention would shift the griping to discussions of moderator policies; I've seen this at other boards.

The good news is that this board in general self-moderates better than anywhere else I've been. Unfortunately it's still been heated enough that some users have either stomped off or faded away. All I can offer is that we are now actively splitting out off-topic arguments from threadjacked topics so it's easier to ignore marginally related hotbutton arguments while discussing a financial/ER topic.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 05:54 AM   #52
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Donner
IMHO the strength of this board is the diverse opinions that come from its members. OTOH, it is just a free board. Nobody on this board is going to buy you a beer, dent your car, mow your lawn or watch your house while you're away. Take it for what it is. Put your ideas out there. Let others accept them or attack them. Then go on. No bullying here. Someone says something you don't like, respond or ignore it.

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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 08:34 AM   #53
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Donner, Donner...........get a grip man. It's a "forum" where we have some fun and learn some stuff and gig each other. If you get this
worked up over a little criticism, you must have a hell of a time
with daily life.

JG
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 10:38 AM   #54
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

h****?

FWIW, I concur that things look threatening, looking out on the horizon. I'm not much into conspiracy theories, however. In my life, I've seen a president assassinated, two more shot at, MLK and RFK assassinated, Vietnam, Watergate, three oil shocks, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, commie dictators too numerous to mention, famine, hurricanes, earthquakes, sunamis, droughts, epidemics...

One could drive one's self over the edge if not careful!!
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 10:41 AM   #55
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Hmmmm

At least it hasn't been boring. History marches on.

Heh, heh, heh, heh.

Pssst! - just keeping my post count up - no great thoughts.

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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 02:18 PM   #56
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
I believe that the administrators, moderators and members of this public discussion Board, severally and jointly, bear a responsibility to protect members from undue an unwarranted harm caused by the intemperate words of* one or more members towards another member, in this particular case me.* *Donner*
Severally and jointly?

Is author attorney? Or perhaps wants to be one?
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 03:00 PM   #57
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Donner,

I have enjoyed reading your posts and I like hearing different points of view. I have to say tho, you are beginning to sound like h****. I haven't found anything especially bad about what Nords has posted - we all don't see things the same way and one person may see what you have written as interesting and thought provoking and another may see it as bullshit. It doesn't mean that one or the other are right. (It may be thought provoking and bullshit.* )

Just a little suggestion - if you and Nords can't play nice together, just ignore one another. We certainly don't need another JG/TH slugfest and I'd hate to start skipping your thoughtful posts because they contain another "Nords is out to get me" rant.
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?
Old 09-15-2005, 04:01 PM   #58
 
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Re: U.S. Government Rigging The Equity Markets?

Whoa, just dodged my way though this thread.* Watch out!* Duck! Ouch.* Smack.

I am a simple person, possessing very little in the financial arena to contribute to this thread.* I haven't expended the energy to try to follow Donner's argument, but hey, it reads well, so it must be true. That said, I love the exquisite rare instances of high dudgeon.* If Nords can somehow provoke Donner into a most excellent world class rant, I say power to Nords.*

You go!
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