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U.S. to recover in spring, economists' group says
Old 10-06-2008, 09:30 AM   #1
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U.S. to recover in spring, economists' group says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-recover-spring-economists-group/story.aspx?guid={0C483A95-81F8-4BF1-AEE6-5DFE37F8BD6A}

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy will recover from the current recession in the second quarter of next year, assuming the credit squeeze in global financial markets improves gradually, according to a survey of 48 economists released Monday.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:32 AM   #2
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Where were these economists when the problem was forming?
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:50 AM   #3
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Dex, I can remember hearing economists talking two years ago that there would be economic hard times in 2008 and that the recovery would be in spring 2010 (because that was DH's original RE time frame, the end of 2010). So spring 2009 would be okay by me.
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:57 AM   #4
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There will be growth in the spring.

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Old 10-06-2008, 11:05 AM   #5
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These people sound like the ones I'd want running the economy...at least right now.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:08 AM   #6
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But they will also always add the disclaimer: "All other things being equal."

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Old 10-06-2008, 11:13 AM   #7
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correcting link to article U.S. to recover in spring, economists' group says - MarketWatch

fortunately, with my own personal bailout plan, i've got just enough cash under the mattress to get me through the winter. also, the dropping oil prices should make my roadtrip this autumn more affordable. i sure hope florida is still here when i get back.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:27 AM   #8
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Another source (I think ): Economists say shaky economy may last for a while - Yahoo! News

From the article:
Quote:
A growing number of economists believe the country is on the brink of — or already in — its first recession since 2001 and that it will be longer lasting.... Close to 69 percent of the economists think the economy has started or will enter a recession this year. That's up from 56 percent in a survey in May. "The general view is .... that this recession will be longer than the last two — lasting roughly one year, but relatively mild," the survey concluded.
Of course one person's "mild" is another person's disastrous depending on one's situation.... Here's hoping "mild" for everyone.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:30 AM   #9
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I think it will recover on June 24th 2009.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:37 AM   #10
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Wow! That is sooner than I had figured. I was thinking June 25th!
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:38 AM   #11
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I think it will recover on June 24th 2009.
Great!!! I will hold you to that.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:39 AM   #12
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Okay, put down June 23, 2009 for me....
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:44 AM   #13
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Okay, put down June 23, 2009 for me....
I guess this is where I come in and guess $1?
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:20 PM   #14
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I guess this is where I come in and guess $1?
But you always have the option to 'call a friend.'

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Old 10-06-2008, 04:45 PM   #15
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Recovery next year is fine with me.
The big worry is retiring and having this downturn occur immediately.
Now it seems that we may hit bottom soon and be the recovery phase before I cut out in Spring 2010.
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Old 10-06-2008, 04:57 PM   #16
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Lusitan beat me to it, but here is the exchange:

President: "Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?"
Chance: "As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden."
President: "In the garden."
Chance: "Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again."
President: "Spring and summer."
Chance: "Yes."
President: "Then fall and winter."
Chance: "Yes."
Rand: "I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy."
Chance: "Yes! There will be growth in the spring."
President: "Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time. I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill."
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Old 10-07-2008, 12:31 AM   #17
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I've come to the conclusion (not a joke) that economists/pundits/money managers are the best TRAILING predictors of future performance. Examples:

When a stock has been going up, it's on their buy list.
When a stock tanks due to bad news, they put it on their sell list (after the tanking).

In January the poll of economists predicted no recession and recovery from the slowdown in the second half of this year.
Now that we're in the dumper the recovery is going to be next year!

A year ago the housing market was going to start rebounding late this year, early next year at the latest.

I predict that once the stock market finally shows a few months of sustained growth they will predict strong growth.

Now aren't you eager to pay1-2% of your assets every year into their greedy money-grubbing smart professional hands to manage your retirement money?
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:24 AM   #18
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hmmmm...winter, spring, summer or fall for the recovery?
i'll be doing my fall planting of garlic soon. i'll guess the 2009 date as the day the garlic tops emerge in the spring. i'll keep you all posted. :
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:30 AM   #19
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hmmmm...winter, spring, summer or fall for the recovery?
i'll be doing my fall planting of garlic soon. i'll guess the 2009 date as the day the garlic tops emerge in the spring. i'll keep you all posted. :
Maybe you can force some of that garlic in a pot, like the Christmas amaryllis, so the recovery will come a little sooner? That'd be nice of you . We all need to do our part, like Ziggy did to turn around the gas crisis
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Old 10-07-2008, 08:53 AM   #20
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well...i have great news, folks. i have a bunch of green onions already in a jar on my window sill that i am continuing to grow. i took issue with paying $1.50 for a small bunch at the store, so i cut the tops off, leaving roots intact, and put them in 2" of water. they are growing beautifully. does that help?
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