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Old 07-03-2008, 08:35 AM   #261
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The American stock market has always been resilient, but does that mean it always will be. The Japanese stock market was at 39,000 back in the late 80ís. Almost 20 years later it now it sits at around 13,000. Who is to say that could not happen to the stock markets in this country.
Umm, invest in bonds, energy, INTERNATIONAL companies, and CDs? You don't need to make your great money off of the AMERICAN stock market, but Japan's problems were quite separate from ours.
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Old 07-03-2008, 11:48 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by CitricAcid View Post
but Japan's problems were quite separate from ours.

If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
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Old 07-03-2008, 11:59 AM   #263
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was at 14K now near 11K heading toward 8K we are in for one heck of a down spin

The market is going toward real scary territory.

Thank the hedge funds the fake money guys the weak dollar and the price of crude oil, which is as important as darn water.
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:02 PM   #264
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If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
Good point. I am thinking, though, that if all the other baby boomers are saving and increasing their portfolios like I am, probably at least SOME of them are buying stock index funds like I am. You'd think that would drive the market up, regardless of the underlying economics. I can dream, anyway.
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:21 PM   #265
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If you're into demographics, the similarities are there. When their baby boom generation got older, they stopped spending and started saving like mad. No consumption, bad stock market. The advice to diversify is right on.

They had other problems but we sure have enough of our own with the subprime mess, etc. these days.
I think the point is that, for the global investor, it doesn't matter that Japan's market took a dive if you were diversified into, say, US stocks at the same time. Likewise, if the US economy is sunsetting, then it doesn't matter if you've diversified into other economies that are now starting to take off.
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:22 PM   #266
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I prefer up to down, since I'm long the markets. Having said that, we're still in "shallow" bear territory. If you're panicking now, time to 1) revisit your allocation, and 2) turn off MTV CNBC...
I didnt think anybody on these boards even had cable
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:29 PM   #267
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I didnt think anybody on these boards even had cable
Does satellite count?

Though in reality, after the February 2009 over-the-air dust settles and stabilizes, I may be looking to ditch the dish as well. I'm getting tired of paying close to $1000 a year for mostly crap I rarely watch.
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Old 07-03-2008, 12:41 PM   #268
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My point, originally, was that you can be well diversified over the entire globe that one country's market is/should not be what your entire retirement rests upon.

Also, there are SOME similarities with Japan's demographics, but I was thinking on an entirely different note. Japanese real estate was absolutely taking off and was ridiculous, pushing up to above $3000 per square foot and as the real estate continued, 50-year and 100-year mortgages were invented and peddled on the homebyuers (similar to interest-only mortgages) and when this caused the bubble to pop with a very high central bank rate to control inflation and the yen, deflation started. When deflation comes in, people spend less because they can buy more a week from now than they can today by just holding on to it. And, as companies start to see declining sales, they lower prices, which fuel into the spiral. That is the major reason the Japanese economy went stagnant for a good 8 years.
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Old 07-03-2008, 01:19 PM   #269
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Does satellite count?

Though in reality, after the February 2009 over-the-air dust settles and stabilizes, I may be looking to ditch the dish as well. I'm getting tired of paying close to $1000 a year for mostly crap I rarely watch.
My situation is the opposite. Without cable or satellite, I couldn't get most of the channels I like to watch, so my tv would only be useful for watching dvds...

Still, I pay a lot for that "privilege"...
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Old 07-03-2008, 01:22 PM   #270
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My situation is the opposite. Without cable or satellite, I couldn't get most of the channels I like to watch, so my tv would only be useful for watching dvds...

Still, I pay a lot for that "privilege"...
Well, there's supposed to be an HD DVR coming out soon for over-air signals that doesn't require a subscription like TiVo. If I could find just enough stuff to record on free TV to watch when I'm ready -- and perhaps teamed with a Netflix subscription for 1/5 the cost of satellite TV -- that piece of hardware could be the kick in the butt I need if it's as advertised. And I'm 60 hilly miles away from the antenna farm in Austin, but the digital and HD signals come in loud and clear without amplification.
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Old 07-03-2008, 01:24 PM   #271
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But HGTV, Food Network, DIY, etc. have no broadcast equivalent...

"Blow up your tv..." John Prine
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Old 07-03-2008, 01:43 PM   #272
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Hmmm - Jan 1993 - age 49 layed off, in the stretch while Mr Market did it's 90's thing, I went from unemployed, dial up webtv and no cable/satellite to:

crap I'm ER not unemployed, computer on cable(mid speed), VIOP, standard cable package, AND a cell phone.

I even call myself a Boglehead after they split from Morningstar and didn't charge five bucks.

All praise to Mr Bogle, Mr Market, time and chance in balanced index funds.

I can almost hear those Vanguard computers humming away clear out here near Kansas City as they rebalance - buying stocks hand over fist to hold my Target 2015 asset allocation.

Toward fall greed and lust may prompt me to switch some of my Norwegian widow stocks(like Con Ed) for something a little er 'more racy'. Of course if the Saint's do well - I may just watch football.

heh heh heh -
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Old 07-03-2008, 03:47 PM   #273
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But HGTV, Food Network, DIY, etc. have no broadcast equivalent...

"Blow up your tv..." John Prine
Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me think I can dump the expensive cable at home.
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Old 07-03-2008, 03:57 PM   #274
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Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me thinik I can dump the expensive cable at home.
We have that one here too from the PBS station in Austin (channel 18-2). It's a nice mix of Food TV, HGTV, DIY and Travel Channel type programming all in one.

Create TV: Public Television's top shows in Cooking, Arts & Crafts, Gardening, Home Improvement and Travel

Digital subchannels are making it possible to offer more varied programming on free TV as well. Our local CBS affiliate just started carrying the Retro Television Network on 42-2 as well:

Welcome to RTN the Retro Television Network

With digital programming, clear pictures and the ability to offer subchannels giving more free programming, I think over-the-air TV is poised to make a bit of a comeback after the dust settles next February.

Anyway, enough of the hijack. We now return you to your regularly scheduled doom and gloom.
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Old 07-03-2008, 04:16 PM   #275
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Actually, we only have broadcast TV in our vacation house and we have an antenna that pulls in a bunch of digital channels including one associated with the PBS stations called "Create". The PBS digitals usually come in groups of 3 and it is usually the third {ie, 12-3, 32-3, etc.}.

It is nothing but cooking, house fix up, etc. shows! It's really a good channel. Makes me think I can dump the expensive cable at home.
Hmmmm... Time to investigate!
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Old 07-03-2008, 07:07 PM   #276
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Well, if it makes you feel any better, China's stock market is down 56% since last October. At least we're not down that much.

This time last year a lot of Chinese were quitting their day jobs so they could make a living day trading.
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Old 07-04-2008, 06:14 AM   #277
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Without cable or satellite, I couldn't get most of the channels I like to watch, so my tv would only be useful for watching dvds...
That's what I do (and the vast majority of the DVDs come from the public library).

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Still, I pay a lot for that "privilege"...
Yes, you do. Still, we all need some entertainment in our lives, and cable isn't that expensive relative to many other pastimes.

The real reason I got rid of cable is because mindlessly watching television (which nobody has to do, but is an easy trap to fall into: "let's see what's on ...") is such a huge time-waster. And I have zero desire to watch all the stupid commercials.
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Old 07-04-2008, 02:23 PM   #278
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Hello my compatriots,

May I get back to the original discussion, namely the "butter knife panic" experienced by wallygator69?

In 2000, I stayed away from bogus companies with no earnings, and bought "real" tech companies (semiconductors, telecoms) etc..., which I later found to be overpriced compared to historical values, though a lot "cheaper" than the dotcoms.

Thanks to that, plus the keeping of 30% in cash reserve, my portfolio only lost 50% of its value, as measured from the top in March2000 to the bottom in Oct 2002.

But I hung on and did not sell out at the bottom. As mentioned, I still had cash, but was too afraid to buy more. Still, perseverance paid off, and I now have 33% more than my top in 2000, despite already losing 12% since Oct 2007.

Having survived that, I try to do better this time. Though I am never fully invested (too chicken and always want some cash handy) and always keep 33% in MM, I have just sold enough yesterday to raise the cash to 50%.

Call me a market timer if you will, but with this cash I am going to sit it out, and will not be losing sleep. At some point, I may be buying back, but just do not know when. In the long run, I may not beat the buy-and-hold investor, but I admit that I do not want to have to entertain the "butter knife" solution

Just my 2 cents.
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