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ugh almost ready to give in to panic
Old 06-26-2008, 03:46 PM   #1
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ugh almost ready to give in to panic

Hey,

Maybe a sign for you guys to buy more.

We are 44 retired almost 2 years, down 4 years living expenses even with pretty conservative allocation from the peak. 40% stock, 40% bond and cash, 20% commodities.

This time it really looks like it maybe different. Too much bad news everywhere. Subprime mess and bailout, oil, inflation, economy, Israel vs Iran, blah blah...

What are you folks ER'd under 50, doing to keep sane and not bail?

Thanks, had the butter knife to my wrists twice today but couldn't go thru with it..

W
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Old 06-26-2008, 03:49 PM   #2
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Quote:
What are you folks ER'd under 50, doing to keep sane and not bail?
Dont look at my 401k balance and put some more money to work
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Old 06-26-2008, 03:56 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by wallygator69 View Post
This time it really looks like it maybe different.
Doesn't it look like that every time there is a big market swing both up or down?

The sooner folks who are susceptible to panic reach the point where they do, the sooner we'll hit bottom and can begin to move on.

Panic away...
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Old 06-26-2008, 03:58 PM   #4
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I'm not in panic mode because I've ridden this wave before but I'm awful reluctant to spend fun money while this is happening .
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Old 06-26-2008, 03:59 PM   #5
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I'm not under 50 but....

Watching CNBC today and many experts were saying not to buy now. But I remember that these were the same experts telling m to buy- buy- buy only a year ago.

So I bought some more today. If it really is different this time I don't have a clue how we get out of it so I'm going to assume that it is just like it always has been - the market goes up and down. Down hurts but there are more ups than downs and they are bigger.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:02 PM   #6
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The sooner folks who are susceptible to panic reach the point where they do, the sooner we'll hit bottom and can begin to move on.
If that were the case, then the stock and bond markets should have started rebounding a month ago. In the course of two months I've gone from planning an ER at 55 to now working until I'm 60 because I'm obviously not prepared for ER. That should be enough panic to cause the stock market to pop up 10%.

I'm with the OP on this one. There is enough bad news to keep this bear market going for quite some time. And much of the rest of the world doesn't seem to have a problem sticking it to the US this time around.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:06 PM   #7
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Doesn't it look like that every time there is a big market swing both up or down?

The sooner folks who are susceptible to panic reach the point where they do, the sooner we'll hit bottom and can begin to move on.

Panic away...
I believe there is a lot more to it than that. Major financial institutions are on the verge of collapse. They will have lost almost a trillion dollars when it's all over. I don't ever remember things this bad before, even during the Carter years.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:07 PM   #8
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If that were the case, then the stock and bond markets should have started rebounding a month ago. In the course of two months I've gone from planning an ER at 55 to now working until I'm 60 because I'm obviously not prepared for ER. That should be enough panic to cause the stock market to pop up 10%.
There are always some who are early adopters...
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:08 PM   #9
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W, I share your anxiety about it. I just turned 46, been semi early retired for a few years. Today is hitting me hard because yesterday I saw how much my funds had dropped recently -- I hadn't been following things closely for a few weeks. So yesterday was sobering -- and now what do I call today?

Then I reminded myself there will be a lot of this in the years to come.

Practically speaking, I set things up so if I had to rely only on income from fund distributions I could meet expenses with some room for fun. That should work for a few years. I also did not include social security or an inheritance in my plans. And I have a second house to sell if I have to.

I think we 40 somethings have a lot in our favor, though obviously many years of possible downturns in our futures.

I might start checking my accounts quarterly in the future.

kate
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:10 PM   #10
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I'm 50 and DH is 54. I've been retired for almost 10 years and he has one more year on the job.

It took a long time for us to finally reach an asset allocation that we can live with. I update our financial spreadsheet once a month and look at the percentages. When we are off about 5% in our allocation, I rebalance.

Reaching our comfort level with our allocation was the key....

...and a shot or two of JD doesn't hurt.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:11 PM   #11
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Don't worry - Be happy

You will see plenty of posters here
sing the praises of "buy and hold"

I'm not one of them... I cashed out
quite a while ago.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:11 PM   #12
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I suspect we are close to a bottom because Dad called out of the blue today and wanted to know if we should sell everything because the market was crashing.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:13 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by wallygator69 View Post
Hey,

Maybe a sign for you guys to buy more.

We are 44 retired almost 2 years, down 4 years living expenses even with pretty conservative allocation from the peak. 40% stock, 40% bond and cash, 20% commodities.

This time it really looks like it maybe different. Too much bad news everywhere. Subprime mess and bailout, oil, inflation, economy, Israel vs Iran, blah blah...

What are you folks ER'd under 50, doing to keep sane and not bail?

Thanks, had the butter knife to my wrists twice today but couldn't go thru with it..

W
I am right there with you! ER'd at 52 last year and have seen my funds greatly diminished.....too dumb to listen to the experts here and did not diversify like I should have....so my portfolio (heavy in the financial sector) has lost $450K....yep, you read it right....$450K gone....poof*** - gone...

Oh...and I tried to BUY MORE while stocks have been going down....and I am currently ALL BOUGHT OUT - nothing left to buy with.....and I actually think that's a good thing as I'm sure that I'd buy something else that would head directly south.....

I don't guess that I have to mention my real estate portfolio - hmmm....looks like I have all of the right stuff, huh? It includes an inherited condo that I can't sell or rent that is currently sucking an additional $500 each month out of my ever shrinking retirement funds....

The only way that I have been able to handle it is to LOOK AWAY from it all and try to focus on ANY positive points that I can find.....

Like....I woke up this morning.....I'm healthy and walking 5-10 miles a day....I still have food to eat.....my 15 y/o daughter is an angel.....my dog still loves me....my DW is as beautiful as ever.....
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:14 PM   #14
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Ugh, can't afford panic. Panic in the past always cost me money or pain. Or both.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:22 PM   #15
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I've reconsidered - we're all doomed. I'm selling everything and moving to Texas. Since everything else has gone to Hell, I might as well too.

My depression era parents, were they still alive, would be laughing at those of us who think these are tough times...
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:24 PM   #16
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Like....I woke up this morning.....I'm healthy and walking 5-10 miles a day....I still have food to eat.....my 15 y/o daughter is an angel.....my dog still loves me....my DW is as beautiful as ever.....
And those things are exactly where your priorities should be. This gloom & doom will eventually pass...
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:30 PM   #17
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I've reconsidered - we're all doomed. I'm selling everything and moving to Texas. Since everything else has gone to Hell, I might as well too.

My depression era parents, were they still alive, would be laughing at those of us who think these are tough times...
We are still living the good life. The tough times are ahead.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:37 PM   #18
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There have always been reasons for people not to invest in the stock market.

In 1991 people were afraid of investing because we were about to enter into a war with Iraq.

In 1989 people were afraid to invest because of the fear that the government had to bail out the S&Ls.

In 1988 people were afraid after Black Monday.

In 1987 people thought they missed the boat when the Dow hit 2000.

In 1983 people were afraid because unemployment was at 10% and banks were failing.

In 1981 people were skeptical of the future of US businesses when Chrysler needed a $400 million loan to stay in business.

In 1980 people were afraid of a war when Iran was holding US hostages.

In 1977 people were afraid of inflation killing the economy when coffee was at $5 a pound.

In 1976 people were afraid of the stock market when New York City almost went bankrupt.

In 1963 the Dow dropped 4% the day Kennedy was assassinated but recovered all losses on the very next business day.

In 1941 the market dropped 1.72% the first week following Pearl Harbor but recovered in just 5 months.

In every one of those years or any year in between, if you had invested in the stock market, you would be worth a considerable amount more today. Invest for the long-term in the stock market and you will be rewarded.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:40 PM   #19
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Since I retired last year it's been a steady downward spiral. So I bought more TSM today, that'll show'em.
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Old 06-26-2008, 04:44 PM   #20
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My depression era parents, were they still alive, would be laughing at those of us who think these are tough times...
I don't get it. No one was complaining last year when the market was 20% overvalued. Shouldn't we all be doing the happy dance now that the market is 20% off its peak and heading for undervalued?!?

Just made my spouse's final IRA contribution. Our asset allocations are holding steady, and Berkshire Hathaway is having a blue-light special sale this month.

I'll be surfing...
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