Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-06-2007, 01:02 PM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmark
"The Firecalc model defines success based on the "worst historical market performance"- note that should be "worst US historical market performance".
Domo arigato!
__________________

__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-06-2007, 01:09 PM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmark
"The Firecalc model defines success based on the "worst historical market performance"- note that should be "worst US historical market performance".
At the moment my personal portfolio rate of return YTD is just over 10% annualized. This is safely above the return of the S&P because of my foreign stock performance. The question becomes should we base our SWR on US or world market performance?

__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-06-2007, 01:38 PM   #43
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 438
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Here's a larger sample of historical geometric market returns copied from "Triumph of the Opimists". They suggest possibly using world returns to reduce country bias.

Real, Annual Stock Bond
geo sd geo sd
Australia 7.5 17.7 1.1 13.0
Belgium 2.5 22.8 -0.4 12.1
Canada 6.4 16.8 1.8 10.6
Denmark 4.6 20.1 2.5 12.5
France 3.8 23.1 -1.0 14.4
Germany 3.6 32.2 -2.2 15.9 (ex-weimar)
Ireland 4.8 22.2 1.5 13.3
Italy 2.7 29.4 -2.2 14.4
Japan 4.5 30.3 -1.6 20.9
Netherlands 5.8 21.0 1.1 9.4
South Africa 6.8 22.8 1.4 10.6
Spain 3.6 22.0 1.2 12.0
Sweden 7.6 22.8 2.4 12.7
Switzerland 5.0 20.4 2.8 8.0
UK 5.8 20.0 1.3 14.5
US 6.7 20.2 1.6 10.0 < 4% based on this
World 5.8 17.0 1.2 10.3
__________________
rmark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-06-2007, 09:33 PM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Both calculators say that we have saved enough for retirement. However, we will wait 4 more years until our daughter completes college.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is online now   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-06-2007, 09:46 PM   #45
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Both calculators say that we have saved enough for retirement. However, we will wait 4 more years until our daughter completes college.
Spanky, you're golden! It's been a while since I tried the fido calc, but it basically told me that I could never retire. I forget what inputs I gave it, but even though FIREcalc gave me 100% success, fido suggested that I increase my bond allocation to go from 80% to 82% success or somesuch nonsense.

I played around with it for a while, and even though my WR was less than 3%, fido said "Sorry, you can't retire. Better luck next time."

What was the retirement term length you gave fido? I think I used 40 or 50 years.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-07-2007, 07:21 AM   #46
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Just for grins I tried the AARP retirement calculator. The AARP calculator said I needed about twice of the assets to retire for the same income FIRECalc had me about 80% safe.

Now that is the most ultra conservative calculator I've ever come across.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-07-2007, 10:13 AM   #47
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

I know this subject has come up before... But isn't this in part an issue related to retirement expense needs? And isn't this the point of Laurence Kotlikoff (economics professor) and part owner of E$Planner. Your retirement assets are there to meet your needs and most of the Financial Service Companies over estimate needs. Partly due to reduced spending as one gets older!

I have not seen the software. But the claim is that is does a monte carlo simulation on assets. Probably not a lot that is new there... But where it may shine is in understanding youe expense needs.



http://www.esplanner.com/
__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-07-2007, 05:17 PM   #48
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,451
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

I don't know if AARPs calculator is the most conservative but it is one of the lamest I've ever seen.
You have to make estimates about every thing inflation rate,expected returns now and when you retire etc.

But the kicker for me was when it asked for current retirement assets, so I type in my liquid net worth, and the stupid calculator said your retirement can't exceed a $1 million. I guess I am suppose to donate the excess to AARP or something.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners
Old 04-07-2007, 05:40 PM   #49
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Re: Ultra Conservative Retirement Planners

Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
But the kicker for me was when it asked for current retirement assets, so I type in my liquid net worth, and the stupid calculator said your retirement can't exceed a $1 million. I guess I am suppose to donate the excess to AARP or something.
I did a ratio to make everything work. I thought it was pretty stupid but I guess I'm willing to overlook things I can work around.
__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Tax Policy Promotes "Early" Retirement REWahoo FIRE and Money 19 07-21-2017 03:10 PM
Vanguard Adding More Target Retirement Funds Lusitan FIRE and Money 23 03-21-2006 07:17 PM
Targeted retirement funds - I don't get it. HBH FIRE and Money 7 03-11-2006 02:58 PM
Great American Retirement Quiz sgeeeee Life after FIRE 0 01-05-2005 01:11 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:55 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.