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Old 05-26-2010, 08:43 AM   #261
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REWahoo, I read this guy today and I think if he has any money at all, it is invested in ammunition, canned goods, bottled water, chain link fence, surveillance cameras, land mines, pit bulls and a mountain top. Oh yeah, and he's single too!
I hope everyone realizes that "a blog is a blog etc.etc." Everyone has an opinion and he gets to publish his. I hope he didn't get paid for that.
I haven't read the article and have no desire to do so.

What interests me is how any talk about debasement of currencies, etc. etc. is seen as somehow "exteme" and then gets lumped in with the wackos.

Debasement of currencies is not an extreme idea... it's simply what happens when too much money gets printed.

And then you deal with that situation, as an investor.

There's no political ideas behind it all. There's just cause and effect.
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Old 05-26-2010, 10:03 AM   #262
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Debasement of currencies is not an extreme idea... it's simply what happens when too much money gets printed.

Sure, but be careful not to look at only one side of the equation, and just part of it at that. Money isn't being created, it's being destroyed. Every time a borrower defaults, money evaporates . . . poof. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism by which the Federal Reserve would typically create money to offset that destruction is gummed up. So we have money destruction on one side and a neutered Fed on the other.

The clear and present danger is deflation, not inflation.

Sure, at some undefined point down the road, assuming no policy reversal and assuming we extricate ourselves from the liquidity trap that Japan couldn't, run away inflation is a possibility. But as you well know, 'we're all dead in the long-run'. In the here and now, deflation is still the bigger risk.
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Old 05-26-2010, 10:47 AM   #263
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Sure, but be careful not to look at only one side of the equation, and just part of it at that. Money isn't being created, it's being destroyed. Every time a borrower defaults, money evaporates . . . poof. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism by which the Federal Reserve would typically create money to offset that destruction is gummed up. So we have money destruction on one side and a neutered Fed on the other.
IMO, the Fed is far from neutered, it is too powerful.........
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Old 05-26-2010, 11:03 AM   #264
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IMO, the Fed is far from neutered, it is too powerful.........
I'll elaborate . . . ."neutered" in its ability to create money through traditional channels.

With respect to its "emergency powers" I agree. I'm just not sure the alternatives are better.
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Old 05-27-2010, 06:57 AM   #265
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A post I made in Dec 2005.

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My dad is a classic conservative investor with requisite dose of depression era "gold bug" in him. One of the few people I know who made money from precious metals in the early 80's. I can still remember about 5 bags of silver stuffed in the basement. We used to play "fun" poker with the quarters. He sold 3 of the 5 bags right at the "Hunt Brothers" peak. We used a red wagon to wheel em into the broker to sell (heavy suckers). When I think back on it, the Hunt Brothers turned it into a pretty nerve racking speculation, but it helped put me and my 3 brothers through college. I still think it is a challenging investment that doesn't win often, but I own some silver bags, gold coins and mining stocks now because DD wouldn't let me sleep if I didn't. They've done quite well. Thanks again Dad
Well now up to >20% of the total stash mostly in physical metal with a minority in mining stocks with the rest of the portfolio in more typical diversified assets. Plan to stay this way for awhile but will allocate out at some point. Not a gold bug or a tin hat person. No barrels of oil or MRE's.

No desire to convince anyone here and I accept that we could be wrong about further upside potential. Just leaving a data point and another thankyou Dad (no matter what happens)! Cheers!
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Old 05-27-2010, 07:02 AM   #266
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A post I made in Dec 2005.



Well now up to >20% of the total stash mostly in physical metal with a minority in mining stocks with the rest of the portfolio in more typical diversified assets. Plan to stay this way for awhile but will allocate out at some point. Not a gold bug or a tin hat person. No barrels of oil or MRE's.

No desire to convince anyone here and I accept that we could be wrong about further upside potential. Just leaving a data point and another thankyou Dad (no matter what happens)! Cheers!
Heh, actually I keep some MREs around, but not for the same reasons as the 'pocyclypse nutters or the gold roaches. Just some disaster supplies that would make it easier to keep the kids in one piece if we had a big hurricane or something and it took the authorities a few days to get here.
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:52 AM   #267
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One aspect of this board that I do not like is its very rapid rejection of anything off the beaten path.

The board is great for many things, but thinking carefully about investments and interactions of macro and micro evens and politics are not among those things.

My practice is to try to turn off my hearing aid when the quick slams come.

Ha
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:56 AM   #268
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One aspect of this board that I do not like is its very rapid rejection of anything off the beaten path.

The board is great for many things, but thinking carefully about investments and interactions of macro and micro evens and politics are not among those things.

My practice is to try to turn off my hearing aid when the quick slams come.

Ha
Which you have said repeatedly in the past. I agree to a certain extent. Having said that, I think far out ideas and detailed investment theses are best spun out via PM with interested parties. In a public forum, if you want to go out on a limb you should expect to put forth a very robust case or get buried by challenges.
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Old 05-27-2010, 09:59 AM   #269
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My practice is to try to turn off my hearing aid when the quick slams come.
Ha, Pfizer has very deep pockets.

Who needs the market when you can hit the lawsuit lottery?
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:44 AM   #270
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"I hear you're taking Viagra".

"Whut"?
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Old 05-27-2010, 11:35 AM   #271
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Which you have said repeatedly in the past. I agree to a certain extent. Having said that, I think far out ideas and detailed investment theses are best spun out via PM with interested parties. In a public forum, if you want to go out on a limb you should expect to put forth a very robust case or get buried by challenges.
I agree. There are plenty of other forums out there to discuss politics and economics. There are plenty of roads to Dublin but if you want to post something way outside the investing box it should be challenged - if for no other reason to be sure the lurkers/newbies don't think the ERF members implicitly agree that investing in triple leveraged beaver cheese futures is a reasonable approach for ER.

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Old 05-27-2010, 11:37 AM   #272
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Milton Friedman's revenge?

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Sure, but be careful not to look at only one side of the equation, and just part of it at that. Money isn't being created, it's being destroyed. Every time a borrower defaults, money evaporates . . . poof. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism by which the Federal Reserve would typically create money to offset that destruction is gummed up. So we have money destruction on one side and a neutered Fed on the other.

The clear and present danger is deflation, not inflation.

Sure, at some undefined point down the road, assuming no policy reversal and assuming we extricate ourselves from the liquidity trap that Japan couldn't, run away inflation is a possibility. But as you well know, 'we're all dead in the long-run'. In the here and now, deflation is still the bigger risk.
US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus - Telegraph
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:25 PM   #273
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One aspect of this board that I do not like is its very rapid rejection of anything off the beaten path.
I haven't seen anything in this tread that is "off the beaten path" that wasn't also factually inaccurate (e.g. that the Constitution requires money to be made of gold).

If "buy gold" is "off the beaten path" then I guess the Fox News channel which has been promoting it heavily is a backwater instead of the most popular news station in America. Same too with the hyper inflation worries and the debasement of the currency concerns. None of this is new, novel, or especially thought provoking.
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Old 05-27-2010, 12:38 PM   #274
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If "buy gold" is "off the beaten path" ...
I agree. Inflation fears are mainstream. What is off the beaten path is the idea that -perhaps- deflation is the bigger threat. And a lot of people who call for "open minds" were quick to dismiss the deflation scenario as ludicrous.

But no matter. When people (me included) exhort others to keep an open mind, we usually mean that others should keep their minds open only to our vision of things...
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:12 PM   #275
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I agree. Inflation fears are mainstream. What is off the beaten path is the idea that -perhaps- deflation is the bigger threat. And a lot of people who call for "open minds" were quick to dismiss the deflation scenario as ludicrous.
How about "highly unlikely" rather than ludicrous. And while gold is an inflation hedge and a holder of value (long term) there are other, traditional assets that do a better job. Gold is best as a "chaos" hedge and has performed as expected during these recent turbulent times. Personally I don't hold any (other than as miners etc in my index funds) as I don't see sufficient benefits that outweigh the hassles and costs in owning the shiny stuff directly, but have no issues with those that do - as a small portion of their portfolio. Being all in gold (or cash) because "deflation is coming with certainty" is not a rational approach to investing, it is gambling.

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Old 05-27-2010, 01:14 PM   #276
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There are plenty of roads to Dublin but if you want to post something way outside the investing box it should be challenged - if for no other reason to be sure the lurkers/newbies don't think the ERF members implicitly agree that investing in triple leveraged beaver cheese futures is a reasonable approach for ER.

DD
I guess that saving people from their possible naiveté does not rank high in my priorities. But who knows, these newbies might be very well equipped to make up their own minds.

I also think it demonstrates an amazing intellectual arrogance to think that your opinions (not you per se, but anyone who takes this rather broad responsibility onto himself) should know enough more than the "way out" poster about what will be found to be really useful or optimal in the long term.
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Which you have said repeatedly in the past. .
I guess I am caught on this one!

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Who needs the market when you can hit the lawsuit lottery? Touché, but I was speaking figuratively.

Ha
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Old 05-27-2010, 01:17 PM   #277
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I guess I am caught on this one!
But not meant as a slap at you, Ha. I guess I expect forums to be what they are, and there is a certain amount of groupthink that goes on. Probably endemic to human herd behavior, and I do not think it is going to change.
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Old 05-27-2010, 02:01 PM   #278
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Sounds inflationary.
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Old 05-27-2010, 03:06 PM   #279
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Looks like the future in Europe will stabilze now that Mr Bean is prime minister in Spain and pushing through the spending cuts stipulated by the IMF.

BBC News - Spanish politicians approve 15bn-euro austerity plan



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Old 05-27-2010, 03:12 PM   #280
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Yup, I posted this in the other thread about how our governments have no choices other than default or hyperinflation.
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