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Uncle Bill(a.k.a the US Dollar) Murdered!!!
Old 03-14-2008, 04:27 PM   #1
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Uncle Bill(a.k.a the US Dollar) Murdered!!!

Might not be a good time for buying anything foreign.

Like gas.


INO - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOTX) Price Chart and Quote
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Old 03-14-2008, 04:29 PM   #2
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There are good reasons for the dollar to be low, just as there are good reasons for oil to be so high. Both moves are overdone, IMO, as "hot money" is all betting on oil and against the dollar.
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Old 03-14-2008, 04:40 PM   #3
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Times like these always remind me of a very wise old guy I worked with, who, whenever things at work looked exceedingly good - or exceedingly bad - would calmly remark: "Things are rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear".
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Old 03-14-2008, 04:50 PM   #4
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Old 03-14-2008, 05:14 PM   #5
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It has been my opinion that the fall of the US dollar is completely overdone especially Vs the Euro. The purchasing power parity between the 2 currencies is completely out of whack in my opinion, and Europe faces as many challenges if not more than the US down the road. As a percentage of GDP, the US debt (9 trillion dollars) is no larger than that of most Eurozone countries, Europe has many more costly social programs to keep funding in the future, it has generally lower growth hence lower tax revenues to pay for these programs, and European citizens are already maxed out on taxes (as high as 50% of gross income in some countries), so they can't even raise taxes to keep funding these programs. And let's not even talk about the shaky political underpinnings of the Euro as a currency. I am actually a bit hesitant to buy assets in Euros right now, because I believe that we could see the dollar snap back pretty hard sooner rather than later.
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Old 03-14-2008, 05:24 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
It has been my opinion that the fall of the US dollar is completely overdone especially Vs the Euro. The purchasing power parity between the 2 currencies is completely out of whack in my opinion, and Europe faces as many challenges if not more than the US down the road. As a percentage of GDP, the US debt (9 trillion dollars) is no larger than that of most Eurozone countries, Europe has many more costly social programs to keep funding in the future, it has generally lower growth hence lower tax revenues to pay for these programs, and European citizens are already maxed out on taxes (as high as 50% of gross income in some countries), so they can't even raise taxes to keep funding these programs. And let's not even talk about the shaky political underpinnings of the Euro as a currency. I am actually a bit hesitant to buy assets in Euros right now, because I believe that we could see the dollar snap back pretty hard sooner rather than later.
I tend to agree, and in fact sold the VEURX that I had in my "play account" a while back. If you are right, Ladelfina may find her dollars going farther in Italy.
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Old 03-14-2008, 06:44 PM   #7
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Those countries that maintain their interest rates (Great Britain, Australia), have a better chance than those that plunge their rates towards zero(ish) like ........

Speakin' of.

There is a substantial segment of the futures community that is pricing in a 100 basis point cut on Tuesday.

Whatse got left? 200 more?
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Old 03-14-2008, 07:32 PM   #8
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Those countries that maintain their interest rates (Great Britain, Australia), have a better chance than those that plunge their rates towards zero(ish) like ........

Speakin' of.

There is a substantial segment of the futures community that is pricing in a 100 basis point cut on Tuesday.

Whatse got left? 200 more?
Hopefully they will go negative. Im crossing my fingers and toes.
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Old 03-15-2008, 10:43 AM   #9
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Buckle up - use dollars to buy bacon and Buweiser to ride thru the rough times. If Buffett can take a position in Kraft(Oscar M. bacon) and Budweiser I can at least consider venturing some hobby money.

Of course Spring is near and Kayaks may go on sale.

heh heh heh - meanwhile holding the balanced index for my age and soldiering on! .

Old saw - food and beer do good in hard times - in contrast to Caviar and Cognac.
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Old 03-15-2008, 03:23 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Times like these always remind me of a very wise old guy I worked with, who, whenever things at work looked exceedingly good - or exceedingly bad - would calmly remark: "Things are rarely as good as you hope or as bad as you fear".
One of my favorites - "95% of what you fear will never occur and the other 5% will never be as bad as you imagine."
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:45 AM   #11
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[QUOTE=unclemick;629191]

Of course Spring is near and Kayaks may go on sale.

.[/QUOTEMost often the good sales are in the fall but I'll keep my eyes open

Kayaks will get you through no money better than money will get you through times of no kayaks

or something like that.
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