Anyone who bases their investment decisions on the posts of a single stranger in an online forum is ... dumb.
Absolutely.
However, if that statement is made and
no one challenges it, it could appear that is the general consensus of
many successful FIRE'd posters, not just one single stranger.
As to the recent posts saying the OP is being 'criticized', or 'piled on' - I just don't see that. What I see are explanations. It's a fact - equities have NAVs that will rise and fall and rise and fall. Short term views mean nothing. And inflation eats buying power - $1 will have unpredictable buying power variations over time, but almost certainly downward.
His numbers appear off, or maybe are just not clear. Are divs included, or not? Actual transaction dates are needed, esp for such a short term analysis.
And I am unclear what the goal is. I don't understand buying a bond fund if the goal was to increase the equity AA. Has he actually determined a target AA? If so, one generally dollar cost averages into that AA. And why buy a balanced fund to increase the equity position of a portfolio with zero equities? Might as well go straight stock index to get a clearer picture of the two.
Or is this an 'experiment'? You really don't need to experiment to know that equities rise and fall. Look at any chart. I just don't understand. It's like saying I need to experiment and travel to Hawaii in December to learn that it is warm there.
-ERD50