Updated longevity estimator

[Big_Hitter]

https://www.longevityillustrator.org/

Enjoy!

"The ALI has been developed as an educational tool by the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries. Although the ALI has been designed to be used to estimate longevity for retirement, it may have additional applications. While the ALI provides a reasonable approximation, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates, either above or below. The ALI is not designed to address your finances; this includes your investments, your earning potential and your anticipated expenses."

 

[Dtail]

Not too much detail, but okay.

 

[GravitySucks]

Over 20% chance of making 95?
Don't think so.

 

[CRLLS]

It requires very little info as input. But given what it is, it confirms that there is ~10% chance that one of us will reach 101 yrs old. We used 100 yrs of age in our planning. But for both of us to reach that age. There is also a ~10% chance that we will both survive to age 92.

On the other hand, there is a 10% chance that one of us will leave this Earth within the next 4 yrs.

 

[CRLLS]

Over 20% chance of making 95?
Don't think so.

Sure. And as a bet, the odds are 4/1 in favor of you won't. But would you bet your entire retirement finances/planning on running out before 95?

 

[Dalmore]

Looks similar to the charts that the SS puts out. The big take-away from a planning perspective, for me anyway, is the either column. The chances of either DW or I reaching 95 is a lot higher than just my individual chance.

 

[Amethyst]

Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.

 

[Dtail]

Looks similar to the charts that the SS puts out. The big take-away from a planning perspective, for me anyway, is the either column. The chances of either DW or I reaching 95 is a lot higher than just my individual chance.

Indeed.
The major reason I moved our retirement planning to 95 death age.

 

[CRLLS]

Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.

If you don't enter a retirement age, is assumes you are already retired. I just tried it using a 1970 year of birth. Sure enough it worked. In the calc's, it reported retirement was at age 50. Try again leaving that space blank.

 

[donheff]

Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.

It did not work for me with my actual retirement age so I entered the lowest acceptable age (my current age) and it produced a result. I wondered about that - seems like the data probably doesn't add much to the equation.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Couldn't play. Person 1's retirement age must be between 63 and 99, which leaves me out since I retired in my 50's. And Person 2 doesn't even have a space for retirement age.

Interesting, I entered my retirement age as 54, even though that's in the future for me, and it accepted it. What's annoying is that you can't put in a retirement age for the other person. My partner and I are only a year apart in age, but I know some couples here have a 10+ year difference. Oh well, it's still interesting, but I'd love to see a calculator/guesstimator that asks for how long your parents and grandparents lived, more health data, stuff like that.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Interesting, I entered my retirement age as 54, even though that's in the future for me, and it accepted it. What's annoying is that you can't put in a retirement age for the other person. My partner and I are only a year apart in age, but I know some couples here have a 10+ year difference. Oh well, it's still interesting, but I'd love to see a calculator/guesstimator that asks for how long your parents and grandparents lived, more health data, stuff like that.

I don't think the point of the estimator is to give the user a precise answer - when we plan for retirement we need to think about future events as probabilities, not certainties

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

I don't think the point of the estimator is to give the user a precise answer - when we plan for retirement we need to think about future events as probabilities, not certainties

I wasn't looking for a precise answer, I was noting that Amethyst couldn't put in a retirement age before 63, but I could, and presenting the relevant data (that it's in the future for me), as it's still not clear if the discrepancy is intentional or a programming error.

 

[Big_Hitter]

I wasn't looking for a precise answer, I was noting that Amethyst couldn't put in a retirement age before 63, but I could, and presenting the relevant data (that it's in the future for me), as it's still not clear if the discrepancy is intentional or a programming error.

i just dropped in 56 no problems. The retirement age just can't be in the past; If you are retired, just enter your current age.

 

[Big_Hitter]

"The purpose of these illustrations is to provide an estimate of how long you and your spouse/partner might live. The information is intended to provide reasonable estimates; however, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates. The illustration methodology was developed by actuaries who are members of the American Academy of Actuaries and/or the Society of Actuaries.

Technical note: All calculations are based on the information you provide and the 2016 Social Security Administration mortality table, with future mortality improvement projected using the Society of Actuaries’ MP-2018 scale."

 

[Jonesee]

It said I died last Tuesday...

 

[Just_Steve]

Person 1's Retirement Age must be between 59 (Actual Age) and 99.

Guess it docent like ER.

 

[Dtail]

It said I died last Tuesday...

Should help lower your SWR.

 

[Spock]

Seems overly simplistic. I would have thought a tool created by actual Actuaries would either:
include a lot more variables
or explain why the typically relevant variables are not significant contributors to their tool.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Seems overly simplistic. I would have thought a tool created by actual Actuaries would either:
include a lot more variables
or explain why the typically relevant variables are not significant contributors to their tool.

sigh

"In addition to those considered in the ALI, longevity depends on many factors. These include: availability and access to health care, current medical conditions, exposure to environmental toxins, family history, geography, income, lifestyle and occupation. While these all affect longevity, many of them are reflected in your health status. The four factors chosen for the ALI (age, gender, smoking and health) have been shown to account for a significant amount of the individual variations in longevity. While these four pieces of information have been shown to produce reasonable approximations of an individual’s longevity*, you or your spouse/partner’s actual lifetime can differ significantly from these estimates, either above or below."

 

[Big_Hitter]

double sigh

"Life expectancy is a single number, derived from a single set of assumptions, and its usefulness is limited. It is not a guarantee that you will live exactly that long, but simply the number of years that people your age and gender might expect to live on average. While a few people will undoubtedly live to their exact life expectancy and no longer, most people will live either a shorter or longer period of time - very possibly a significantly shorter or longer period of time. Although no one wants to be the person who lives for fewer years in retirement than expected, there is a significant financial risk involved in living longer, especially if your retirement income is not guaranteed for life (as might be the case for assets you draw down yourself from your savings). Therefore, it is very risky to rely on the life expectancy number when planning your retirement.

This ALI enables you to see a much larger picture than a single life expectancy number. The tool estimates the likelihood that you will live for various lengths of time. Further, this analysis goes one step further and analyzes longevity for couples. That is, the ALI lets you consider longevity as it affects your retirement as a couple, not just as individual partners. The ALI ’s charts show the likelihood of the couple both living a given number of years as well as the likelihood that one of you will outlive the other. All of this information is crucial towards planning a secure retirement."

 

[Big_Hitter]

facepalm

"The ALI will help provide you with additional perspective. If you consider your retirement plan assuming that you will live only as long as your life expectancy, you may run out of retirement funds if you live longer than expected. (And there is a reasonable chance you will!) On the other hand, if you consider a retirement plan assuming you will live to 110, you may find yourself without adequate income in your retirement years. The question to consider is how much comfort you want to have such that you will not exhaust your savings as you age.

This tool is meant only to help you analyze your retiree financial longevity risk and does not consider financial aspects of your retirement planning. Using the ALI is just a starting point to help you consider your options for a secure retirement."

 

[pb4uski]

I focus in on the 50% probability... especially with respect to life expectancy since it relates to our ongoing debates on SS strategies.... my life expectancy is 88 and DW's is abut 90.... the tool suggests that one or the other of us will live to be 93.... so delaying SS make a lot of sense since the breakeven point is usually about 82 or so and we can aford to delay.

 

[joeea]

Interesting, I entered my retirement age as 54, even though that's in the future for me, and it accepted it.

That's to be expected.

What's annoying is that you can't put in a retirement age for the other person.

Presumably because the retirement age of your partner doesn't have a significant affect on your longevity.

Oh well, it's still interesting, but I'd love to see a calculator/guesstimator that asks for how long your parents and grandparents lived, more health data, stuff like that.

Yup. They are all toys.

 

[joeea]

It said I died last Tuesday...

Did you?