Just watched CNN's IOUSA special. Pretty staggering when you hear if you immediately repealed all three of Bush tax cuts, stop all Iraq war spending and cut the Defense spending by 10% the most you could hope to get is a 15% reduction in federal deficit.
As Obama and company attempt to spend our way out of the "recession", it is pretty clear at some point, the tide will have to reverse and tax rates rise and inflation will ramp up.
During the last experience of run-away inflation in the 70's, I recall federal bonds offering interest rates above 12% for 30 yr money and mortgage rates at 12+% if you could get a bank to lend(and that is when banks actually used lending standards). Now we hear the Chinese probably do not want any more of our debt (they and the Japanese hold about half /2/3 I recall of our debt).
The 70's decade is what keeps coming to mind with low market growth and lost of principle value due to inflation.
With that preamble, what does an ER do to protect his principle and try to get enough growth to stay with even a 4% w/d strategy?
A couple stategies bouncing around in my head include an accelerated conversion of IRA to Roth and pay the lower current tax schedule while there is one (of course that assumes the Fedsdon't remove the no tax on Roth withdrawals).
Perhaps reduce equity exposure below 50% to stay in low risk/short duration cash equivalents. Wait until the inflation monster takes off and then buy fed bonds once they have double digit yields.
Anyone want to share how they see "dancing" through the next 3-5 years investment environment??
Thanks
Nwsteve
As Obama and company attempt to spend our way out of the "recession", it is pretty clear at some point, the tide will have to reverse and tax rates rise and inflation will ramp up.
During the last experience of run-away inflation in the 70's, I recall federal bonds offering interest rates above 12% for 30 yr money and mortgage rates at 12+% if you could get a bank to lend(and that is when banks actually used lending standards). Now we hear the Chinese probably do not want any more of our debt (they and the Japanese hold about half /2/3 I recall of our debt).
The 70's decade is what keeps coming to mind with low market growth and lost of principle value due to inflation.
With that preamble, what does an ER do to protect his principle and try to get enough growth to stay with even a 4% w/d strategy?
A couple stategies bouncing around in my head include an accelerated conversion of IRA to Roth and pay the lower current tax schedule while there is one (of course that assumes the Fedsdon't remove the no tax on Roth withdrawals).
Perhaps reduce equity exposure below 50% to stay in low risk/short duration cash equivalents. Wait until the inflation monster takes off and then buy fed bonds once they have double digit yields.
Anyone want to share how they see "dancing" through the next 3-5 years investment environment??
Thanks
Nwsteve