US Dollar So Sad.....

[brewer12345]

Brewer: December 05!? Did you miss what I wrote? Anyway here is a newer link showing some 20% US for PFUIX - I can live with that. http://www.allianzinvestors.com/mutualFunds/profile/PMFBU/portfolio_A.jsp

PLMIX states in the strategy: Currencies or fixed income securities denominated in currencies of non-U.S. countries (0-8 yr. avg. duration) so I am convinced that the "cash" held is other currencies too.

Gotcha. Those funds look like attractive substitutes for GIM if it goes to a substantial premium to NAV. Thanks.

 

[unclemick]

Yep - to repeat - if I were to ex-pat - I'd whistle up a different tune and a different portfolio.

I believe even the Terhorst's experience with Argintine inflation/currency early in ER resulted in 'the other method' - exit stage right - to paraphrase that great guru Yogi Bear.

Mobile and stay widely diversified - if you wish to travel the world.

Then there are grumpy old provincials ensconced in Missouri!

heh heh heh heh heh heh

 

[Lancelot]

Calm down fellas...

Prove me wrong, but my memory is that the original peg for the Euro to the US $ was E1.20 to $1. Subsequently, the dollar did strengthen, but it is now trading at about E1.26 to $1, fairly close to the original euro dollar ratio.

Yes, the USD is weak now relative to many other major curriencies, but, in the near term, higher oil prices coupled with a weak dollar will lead to (US) inflation, which will trigger even more interest rate increases from the Fed. Higher interest yields will attract inflows of foreign curriencies, which, low and behold, will increase the demand for dollars.

For the record, I too am concerned about the long term strength of the USD. But, for now, although the dollar may rise and fall a bit, it will not crash. If it were to crash in the near future -I read daily about the Thai Baht's newfound strength and the negative impact on Thai exports- where would the world dump sell it's exports? What national economy could absorb them? Japan? Germany? China...

What worries me is when the Chinese, (including Japan, Korea & SE Asia) and/or Indian economies develop their domestic markets to the extent that they are no longer dependent on the US export market. That scenario, linked with an unwillingness to finance our buying binge by not purchasing US Treasury products is indeed frightening.

But it won't be happening anytime soon...

Lance

 

[johnlw]

The good thing (if it is a good thing) to remember is that Japan and China hold so much of our debt that they have a vested interest in the value of our dollar. They don't want to see it drop too far, too fast.

Also, as Lancelot said, at least for today, they are dependent on us for the export market.

 

[Maximillion]

lance, don't be so sure,, the whole thrust of China is to rely upon their own population for their goods, and India(Chindia), intend to grow without the mistakes of the Chinese.

India has a very well educated middle class, most fluent in English, and remnants of an Infrastructure and Legal system left by the English.

I think it is wonderful that other powers are growing, it is an unsafe world when one super power can dominate, hopefully this will rule out future Iraq's.

Interest rates will rise in other countries, Foreigners will buy more local Treasuries, less US$, I am putting money to work, but not in $US, I think there is more downside, the poop has yet to really hit the fan.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

BMJ: yes - with my international life I see no need to take on the extra risk of currency risk and instead ensure that I am "self-hedged" by owning equities/bonds/cash/RE spread around the world. Oh; and for me USA IS foreign .

Well, it feels foreign even to me the past few years...

Seriously, I knew that, but I was tripping up on how to phrase everything..."american" and "non/un-american" are simple but ambiguous when speaking internationally.

Thanks

 

[MJ]

You never really own beer.....you just rent it.

And when you're done, you just flush it down.

 

[HFWR]

Gotta keep the Coors brewery stocked, ya know...

 

[Lancelot]

lance, don't be so sure,, the whole thrust of China is to rely upon their own population for their goods, and India(Chindia), intend to grow without the mistakes of the Chinese.

Max,

You are making my point for me.

I agree that the Chinese would like to be self reliant in terms of their economy...

But, in the mean time, they are dependant on the US market to grow their economy. Millions of chinese farm boys are trekking to the big city to make their fortunes- and the chinese authorities are becomming increasingly nervous about keeping them employed.

Lance

 

 

[Maximillion]

Lance, i don't know if you are aware that my oldest son has lived in China for 8 years, not as an Ex Pat, but with the Chinese.

The rural dwellers are indeed pouring into the cities, but , I forget the date, it was pointed out that within a very short time there will be more millionaires in China than the population of Canada.(32mil.)
Chinese are returning for the opportunities, and they are great.

China does not trust the US, Taiwan is a major thorn in their side,the do not want to be bullied into actions that would cause them to lose face.

Many things happen in China that do not leak out, supression of minorities, violent crack downs on certain groups, China does not want its' internal politics controlled by others.

Muslims in particular are being dealt with harshly.

I don't think the U.S.can afford to be complacent and smug, they should be concious that the rug could be pulled.

I listened to Bush' speech, I just don't believe what he said, miraculously the US will halve its' defecit in a year.

How??

Pfizer is a great company with a 4% dividend yield, but if the $ falls 10%, I've still lost 5% if the stock does nothing.

 

[preben]

Lance; yeah 37.25 Baht/$ certainly affect ones buying power as a retiree sending over US$. It also affect prices on imported goods which foreigners certainly buy much more of than locals. Fuel is also imported so EVERYTHING produced or transported in Thailand also so inflation comes to all.

That said I have at least 1 year of spending held in THB in a 2-3% "money market"-account. In addition I own my condo (which naturally sees a healthly gain measured in $) ensuring that that cost is kept stable. Also I have a couple of small investments in business in Thailand paying me a small income in THB.

Finally my portfolio have certainly seen a jump due to the stronger Asian currencies - and I see them only getting stronger. China will do it SLOWLY and all will follow. I am just back from a couple of weeks in China myself.

MAx: Where do you invest these days?

Cheers!

 

[Maximillion]

ben, I am staying with Canada, like they said on TV right now this country is hitting on all cylinders.

No Defecit, an $8 Billion Surplus, a new Government that is more to the right, and all those commodities.

Bolivia and Columbia are Nationalising all the Foreign Oil and Gas Holdings, Venezuela looks next, that makes the huge Reserves in Canada more important, Political Stability.

I have just had a bunch of 12% Bonds called, I will wait to see what happens over the next 60 to 90 days.

I may put a small amount into an Indian Fund, but for long term hold.

TRP/NYSE is on my screen, I sold a bunch earlier, now think it was a mistake, Yanks drill in Alaska, TRP has the pipelines.

Excellent Management.

I love Mother Pfizer, but I will wait until September before I nibble.(4% Div, raise Dividend every year).

 

[unclemick]

Duh

Mother Pfizer!, 4% div, September - also in my train of thought.

Go figure.

heh heh heh heh - still have my Lilly and Glaxo DRIP's from the early 90's when mother pharma had a bad day at black rock.