Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
VPW - Best Withdrawal Calculator I've seen to date.....
Old 10-16-2013, 08:45 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
VPW - Best Withdrawal Calculator I've seen to date.....

Here is a calculator developed by a Bogelhead member this past summer. It is a Calculator called VPW (variable Percentage Withdrawal). It cannot fail like a fixed SWR. It Will deplete your portfolio much better than a fixed SWR and hence lets you spend more money.

Instead of operating like a 3 or 4% inflation adjusted withdrawal, it performs more like we actually take our money from our portfolio. Taking more money in down market years and less in up market years. It also takes into account your mortality and therefore has a rising percentage as you age. There is a Free VPW calculator that you can download here.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/dcfoq1b39j...Withdrawal.xls

It will allow you to input all your info and backtest it against Market history (Like Firecalc). For a lot of discussion on this tool, visit Bogelheads and Search for VPW. You'll find any questions you have will have already been answered there.
__________________

__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-16-2013, 09:02 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
The link didn't work for me.
__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 09:06 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: No. California
Posts: 1,600
I was able to download the file. I'll try it out later today.
__________________
KB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 09:15 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,264
Interesting, thanks.

It downloaded and appears to work fine for me in LibreOffice (apparently no tricky macros which often don't translate so well). Will require some digging and playing to comment further, but at first glance I am impressed.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 11:57 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,293
Thanks, Cut-Throat. Looks good.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 12:47 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,152
If I understand the calculator correctly, he asks for some basic inputs on your asset allocation and projects a real return number (Real) for your portfolio. Then you input a life expectancy and so there are a certain number of years to termination of plan (Life). Then it calculates the current year withdrawal by computing how much you could withdraw each year for the rest of your Life if your portfolio returned Real each year and you wanted to end up with zero dollars on the day you expect to die.

So at a 0% real return, this becomes a 1/Life calculator. (e.g., 30 year life expectancy, 0% real return, yields 3.33% current year withdrawal).

To get your current annual VPW withdrawal amount, you should be able to go to this web calculator and enter your expected real return and life expectancy.

Retirement Spending Calculator

Since one is recomputing their withdrawal each year, the amount you withdraw will vary depending on the cumulative performance of the portfolio. Each year your remaining life expectancy is getting shorter so it is safer to draw more than the previous year, for example, if the portfolio balance remained the same.

I didn't see a good explanation of all of the assumptions in the FAQ, but this is how I understood them. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks.
__________________
kramer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 12:57 PM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 637
Interesting calculator. On the Calculation tab, what does the "Internal Rate" represent?
__________________
bizlady is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 01:02 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,421
Looking forward to trying it out.
__________________
explanade is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 01:58 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
If you read through this thread on Bogelheads, it will probably answer all your detailed questions on Methodology, etc.

Bogleheads • View topic - Variable Percentage Withdrawal
__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 03:38 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
For completeness on this topic:

The potential downside to variable withdrawal rate calculators is that should you retire into a raging bear market, them your appropriate variable withdrwal may not be enough to live on. But should you take out more than specified in those lean years you may be resigning yourself to a life of poverty because you have severely depleted the portfolio before it has a chance to grow again.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 03:46 PM   #11
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
For completeness on this topic:

The potential downside to variable withdrawal rate calculators is that should you retire into a raging bear market, them your appropriate variable withdrwal may not be enough to live on. But should you take out more than specified in those lean years you may be resigning yourself to a life of poverty because you have severely depleted the portfolio before it has a chance to grow again.
Exactly the opposite !........ Not having enough to live on during a raging bear market is a function of Asset Allocation, not your withdrawal rate. And an inflation adjusted SWR will deplete a portfolio faster than VPW.

Please tell us what withdrawal method would 'save you' from your scenario?

Download the tool and Backtest your theories first, before making claims like these.
__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 04:30 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
Exactly the opposite !........ Not having enough to live on during a raging bear market is a function of Asset Allocation, not your withdrawal rate. And an inflation adjusted SWR will deplete a portfolio faster than VPW.

Please tell us what withdrawal method would 'save you' from your scenario?

Download the tool and Backtest your theories first, before making claims like these.
Did you actually read (and understand) what I posted ?

I'll give an example of what I posted. Lets say you have a $1MM portfolio and the variable witdrwal scheme suggests you could take out 5.5 percent annually for the next year. That would give you an income of $55k before taxes.

Then (just) suppose a year later another great recesion hits and your portfolio is now worth half. Your predicted 5.5 percent withdrawal is then only $27.5k. Could you live on that amount ? Maybe - or maybe not.

If you need significantly more than that to live on, and take substantially more out (than the scheme warrants) then the nestegg gets depleted at the worst possible time. If you were to take out the previously determined $55k then your portfolio is now worth less than 90 percent of what it once was (forever).

Should the raging bear market last for more than a few years you will be in real trouble should you continue depleting your portfolio - for the rest of your life. At any rate you may have to live with much less than planned.

That's what the post was all about. And that's the (potential) downside to variable withdrwal schemes.
Quote:
Please tell us what withdrawal method would 'save you' from your scenario?
Since a traditional SWR takes a lessor amount out of the nestegg, the effects of prolonged bear markets (perhaps) can be managed better. Traditional safe withdrawal schemes also do an (arguably) better job of banking gains for the inevitable lean times that may come.

By the way, I am not arguing for one method or the other. I just understand that each scheme has it's weaknesses.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 04:41 PM   #13
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
Did you actually read (and understand) what I posted ?

I'll give an example of what I posted. Lets say you have a $1MM portfolio and the variable witdrwal scheme suggests you could take out 5.5 percent annually for the next year. That would give you an income of $55k before taxes.

Then (just) suppose a year later another great recesion hits and your portfolio is now worth half. Your predicted 5.5 percent withdrawal is then only $27.5k. Could you live on that amount ? Maybe - or maybe not.

If you need significantly more than that to live on, and take substantially more out (than the scheme warrants) then the nestegg gets depleted at the worst possible time. If you were to take out the previously determined $55k then your portfolio is not worth less than 90 percent of what it was (forever).

Should the raging bear market last for more than a few years you will be in real trouble - for the rest of your life. At any rate you may have to live with much less than planned.

That's what the post was all about. And that's the (potential) downside to variable withdrwal schemes.



Since a traditional SWR takes a lessor amount out of the nestegg, the effects of prolonged bear markets (perhaps) can be managed better.
Yes, I read what you posted, but you didn't read what I posted.

If a 'great recession' hit and your portfolio was worth half, and you could not live on the 27.5K (plus pension and Social Security), then you were taking on too much risk and your Asset Allocation was wrong to begin with. As an example, Someone that is only 30% stocks and 70% Bonds, would suffer at the Maximum about a 15% Portfolio Loss. (Rule of Thumb - Most you are willing to lose in Percent times 2, should be your stock allocation).

A traditional SWR in the Face of a Bear Market puts your portfolio in even more jeopardy. Using your example of the severe recession that cuts a portfolio in half. The VPW takes about $27.5K, but the fixed 4% SWR still takes an inflation adjusted $40K, which is very damaging to your portfolio, because you are now selling assets when they are down. When the market does turn around again, your portfolio is bigger with VPW than with a fixed SWR and thus will grow bigger.

I think you better study up on this one a bit more before commenting.
__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 05:37 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
For completeness on this topic:

The potential downside to variable withdrawal rate calculators is that should you retire into a raging bear market, them your appropriate variable withdrwal may not be enough to live on. But should you take out more than specified in those lean years you may be resigning yourself to a life of poverty because you have severely depleted the portfolio before it has a chance to grow again.
And what is the cure for these problems? I thought they were part of reality.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2013, 11:57 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
Yes, I read what you posted, but you didn't read what I posted.

I think you better study up on this one a bit more before commenting.
You,ll have bigger problems than has yet been discussed should you try to pull out 5.5% from a bond-heavy portfolio. Besides being unsustainable, These type portfolios were devistated in the 70"s. Should massive inflation at those or greater rates occur then you'll be in real trouble.

Sorry you (still) can't see the potential weakness in a variable scheme. There is no free-lunch here. The larger withdrwal rate comes with it's own set of issues.

Safe withdrawal rate schemes have that name for a reason.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2013, 12:00 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
And what is the cure for these problems? I thought they were part of reality.

Ha
The cure is to not deplete the nestegg so much that it can't (eventually) recover when the markets revert.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2013, 06:16 AM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
You,ll have bigger problems than has yet been discussed should you try to pull out 5.5% from a bond-heavy portfolio. Besides being unsustainable, These type portfolios were devistated in the 70"s. Should massive inflation at those or greater rates occur then you'll be in real trouble.

Sorry you (still) can't see the potential weakness in a variable scheme. There is no free-lunch here. The larger withdrwal rate comes with it's own set of issues.

Safe withdrawal rate schemes have that name for a reason.
If you download the VPW tool, and backtest it against the "70s", you can see the results and decide for yourself. I have no problem with the "70s" or 70% Bonds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
The cure is to not deplete the nestegg so much that it can't (eventually) recover when the markets revert.
And that is exactly what VPW does as opposed to an Inflation Adjusted SWR. So, it sounds like you are advocating VPW.
Which makes me think, You have not even tried the tool or understand the concept.
__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2013, 09:22 AM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Austin
Posts: 223
This withdraw method can be appropriate depending on how long you plan to live.

For people looking for 25 years, it is quite good, just because it starts with 4% WR.

For people looking for 50 or more years, it does not work at all. 2% WR is just too conservative.
__________________
HillCountry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2013, 10:22 AM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 585
Quote:
Originally Posted by HillCountry View Post
This withdraw method can be appropriate depending on how long you plan to live.

For people looking for 25 years, it is quite good, just because it starts with 4% WR.

For people looking for 50 or more years, it does not work at all. 2% WR is just too conservative.
You've done something wrong !... I just ran VPW for 50 years and the standard VPW starts out with a 3.7% Withdrawal Rate and increases from there.

So, tell us your inputs and how you arrived at 2%
__________________
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-17-2013, 10:34 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,152
Quote:
Originally Posted by HillCountry View Post
This withdraw method can be appropriate depending on how long you plan to live.

For people looking for 25 years, it is quite good, just because it starts with 4% WR.

For people looking for 50 or more years, it does not work at all. 2% WR is just too conservative.
That would only be the beginning withdrawal rate if you assumed a real return of your portfolio of 0%. For instance, if you assumed a real portfolio return of 2% for your 2 cases above the initial withdrawal rate for VPW would be:

Real return of 2% assumed:

Initial SWR for 25 years life expectancy: 5.0%
Initial SWR for 50 years life expectancy: 3.1%

By the way, I just used the web calculator in the link above to produce these numbers in a few seconds.

The withdrawal rate would then be recalculated each year and applied to the current portfolio value.
__________________

__________________
kramer is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:57 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.