Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Waiting for 10 yr Treas. rate to rise , am I beating a dead horse ?
Old 03-11-2015, 03:01 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Waiting for 10 yr Treas. rate to rise , am I beating a dead horse ?

I have been waiting , likely in vain, for the 10 year to head back up near 3%.

The QE Europe stuff seems to have money heading to the 10 year , driving down the rate.

Buy now or wait till later in the year ?
__________________

__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-11-2015, 03:16 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,616
I thought some 7-year CDs sometimes appear with a 3% rate. FDIC-insured, too.
__________________

__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2015, 03:30 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
I have given up on treasuries, especially longer term. Much, much rather pick out CD deals when they show up. Note that I am talking about direct CDs, not brokered.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2015, 03:37 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
I found 2.5 on 7 yr and 2.75 apy on 10 yr fdic cd's, at mid direct . The main reason for seeking the bond would be a big bump in value selling it if rates again dropped. Mid first direct is in OK. don't know if financial trouble in the oil patch could put them at risk. FDIC insured, so I guess it's safe.Early w/d is really high 2 years int on 7 yr, 3 years on the 10 yr.

Prob. am better off with a cd.

Never held a 10 yr. bond. Does the gov. issue a 1099 each year, or is it differed until sold/ matured like savings bonds?
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-11-2015, 05:42 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,049
Good thing about Treasury Bonds, Notes, Bills is no state income tax on the interest.
__________________
jim584672 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 12:26 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712 View Post
I have been waiting , likely in vain, for the 10 year to head back up near 3%.

The QE Europe stuff seems to have money heading to the 10 year , driving down the rate.

Buy now or wait till later in the year ?
What is the purpose/time horizon of the money?
__________________
mrfeh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 12:34 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by jim584672 View Post
Good thing about Treasury Bonds, Notes, Bills is no state income tax on the interest.
What's a state income tax?
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 01:48 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,049
You might want to check your Broker to see if they have any 3% CDs available. I see 10 and 20 years @ 3%.
__________________
jim584672 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 01:54 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,457
Even if the 10 year treasury rate does go up, is it going to get much past 3 or 3.5%? I could see it not exceeding that level for a long time.

I keep most of my fixed income allocation in a diverse mix of intermediate bond funds. I plan to hold these for decades, so I don't sweat the next five years. I've already held them for 15 years.
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 02:40 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh View Post
What is the purpose/time horizon of the money?
Indefinite time, want to at least keep pace with inflation , be semi liquid to buy the
"once in a lifetime opportunity " rental property.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
What's a state income tax?
Very funny
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 02:44 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712 View Post
Indefinite time, want to at least keep pace with inflation , be semi liquid to buy the
"once in a lifetime opportunity " rental property.
Then I suggest intermediate bond market. Don't try to time interest rates.

If you think you may need the funds within 3 years, put some of it in short term bond (ie. VFSUX).
__________________
mrfeh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2015, 02:58 PM   #12
Full time employment: Posting here.
gcgang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 924
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712 View Post
I have been waiting , likely in vain, for the 10 year to head back up near 3%.



The QE Europe stuff seems to have money heading to the 10 year , driving down the rate.



Buy now or wait till later in the year ?

Don't wait. If it's right for your situation, buy now. If rates go up, you can always do a bond swap and deduct the loss.

1099 is issued each year, there is no deferral like savings bonds.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. YB
gcgang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2015, 04:36 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,408
the best deals in bonds today are BBB rated or Baa in moody's system . they pay a nice premium over investment grade , they have a very very low risk of default.

a few funds actually zoom in on that area.

BLADX FROM BLACK ROCK FOR EXAMPLE.

PBBBX ALSO .

if BBB were a neighborhood it would be the brooklyn of the bond market .
__________________
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2015, 01:35 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,035
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the best deals in bonds today are BBB rated or Baa in moody's system . they pay a nice premium over investment grade , they have a very very low risk of default.

a few funds actually zoom in on that area.

BLADX FROM BLACK ROCK FOR EXAMPLE.

PBBBX ALSO .

if BBB were a neighborhood it would be the brooklyn of the bond market .

The average is a little over 1.2% defaults according to the prof in the bond course i'm taking.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
dallas27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2015, 04:22 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,408
but if you buy a fund with hundreds of them as low as the default rate is the odds are even lower .
__________________

__________________
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
treasurery


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Government's New Plan for Retirees Includes Pink Slime, Horse Meat, & Horse Hockey mickeyd FIRE and Money 63 04-04-2012 02:43 PM
Will CD Interest Rates Rise if Borrowing Rates Rise? John Galt III FIRE and Money 5 07-29-2011 12:58 PM
The Rise and Fall and Rise of Iceland haha FIRE and Money 6 05-14-2011 01:28 PM
Beating the exchange rate studying aboard? tightasadrum Other topics 2 07-21-2007 08:56 AM
Apparently we're going to beat this dead horse until it becomes another animal.. cute fuzzy bunny Other topics 100 06-21-2005 02:15 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:19 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.