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Old 05-04-2012, 06:53 PM   #41
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One of the lessons of the crash for me is that the world is a much more volatile place than I had previously ascertained. That being the case, I have been taking steps to help lower my risk profile and not all of them have been portfolio related. So while I have taken to keeping more cash and CDs handy and I have become more disciplined about selling stuff that runs up to my targets, I have also moved to an area with much lower catastrophe risk and lots of handy open forest nearby. I have chosen to stay in a rock solid job I could do with half my brain rather than take risk chasing big money (which probably is not there anyway). I will likely refi my ARM to a 30 year fixed later this summer and hang onto the cash rather than take a 15 or seek to prepay. I will be learning to hunt this fall (never go hungry if you can quietly pick off the occasional "limb chicken"). And we are slowly building up a supply of stored food, water and ammunition (I will probably never have to buy .22 shells ever again). The vast majority of this is probably unnecessary, but it takes a fraction of 1% of my portfolio and if it cuts off a very unpleasant tail scenario it is well worth it.

"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."

- Will Rogers
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Old 05-04-2012, 07:35 PM   #42
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I was having a pretty good evening, then I read that our resident 'seer' is saying
the world is a much more volatile place than I had previously ascertained. That being the case, I have been taking steps to help lower my risk profile and not all of them have been portfolio related.
and then I read this thread http://

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Old 05-04-2012, 10:32 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
Wasn't I naive? I just assumed when the housing bubble DID burst - and I too was certain it would - those who bought McMansions and the STOCKHOLDERS of the institutions who made it possible would be the ones to suffer. Silly me. Surely we learned our lesson back during the S&L crisis. Maybe not. YMMV

I didn't expect the US would bail out a company like AIG. It didn't even occur to me that someone would sell that much uncovered credit insurance and go that far under.

I didn't think we'd try to pay 100 cents on the dollar to F&F bondholders.
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Old 05-05-2012, 10:56 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
I got whacked along with everyone else, although I regained the investment money I lost pretty quickly. The collapse was broader and less predictable than I would have guessed. The biggest loss was my extremely lucrative job, but since I am now in a far more livable situation job-wise that turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Ah well.
The problem with being right is that you could not have anticipated the widespread bailouts that changed the course of our history. I suppose shorting banks would have been good but the bailout prolonged their decline by years.

Who would have guessed that Buffett would have made money by investing $5B in Goldman at the peak of the crisis?

(Of course, a move to God's country is not a bad consolation prize!)

For the fun of it...Keith
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