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What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:20 PM   #1
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What a run!

Am I the only one excited about the market performance today?

My YTD as of yesterday is only 7.5%. Crossing my fingers and hoping for a 10% by year end. Too optimistic?
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:29 PM   #2
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Re: What a run!

Jinx!
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:33 PM   #3
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Re: What a run!

Have actually been disappointed there has not been a significant Sept or Oct correction so far. Have a bunch of cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce on a buying opportunity this fall.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:36 PM   #4
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Re: What a run!

Up or down... I don't really care for the next few decades.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:40 PM   #5
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Crossing my fingers and hoping for a 10% by year end. Too optimistic?
Well lets see there are around 12 weeks left until the end of the year. So if this trend of 1 percent gain a day holds then we should see a gain of around 60 percent. (12 weeks x 5 days/week trading x 1 percent a day)

Can you say DOW 19000 ?

So lets just hope this trend holds !

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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 05:53 PM   #6
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Re: What a run!

As long as you're dreaming, might as well dream it right. You forgot compounding. It would be around 21,000
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 06:43 PM   #7
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Am I the only one excited about the market performance today?
My YTD as of yesterday is only 7.5%. Crossing my fingers and hoping for a 10% by year end. Too optimistic?
Surprised, watching with some disbelief, and glad I'm not shorting anything. But not that excited.

Berkshire Hathaway has risen nearly four percent in the last couple weeks as everyone realizes that September was a good hurricane month. I think there's more upside coming in the next couple months as people realize what Berkshire's been raking in.

We're up 10.9% YTD. If you get your wish for another third in the last three months of the year then we'd be up 14.5%. But that's just crazy talk!
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 07:16 PM   #8
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Have a bunch of cash on the sidelines waiting to pounce on a buying opportunity this fall.
it may be that fall came early this year (mid june) ... then again, maybe it will be late.

i too am surprised there hasn't been much mention of the good fortune of the past several months ... and speaking of lack of enthusiasm, what happened to all the gold bugs?
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 07:38 PM   #9
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
We're up 10.9% YTD. If you get your wish for another third in the last three months of the year
then we'd be up 14.5%. But that's just crazy talk!
I'm envious of your YTD. But wait, our portfolios are different, so I might get my 1/3 and you might not, or vice versa.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 07:39 PM   #10
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
I'm envious of your YTD. But wait, our portfolios are different, so I might get my 1/3 and you might not, or vice versa.
Considering our portfolio's volatility I'm sure of it...
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 09:18 PM   #11
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Re: What a run!

The rally has beat up all the market timers. I'm supprised the market has so much strength & I'm a bull. Maybe the hedge funds have been shorting the market for the past year. Now they are getting the squeeze. If that's true... they is no limit on how high we can go.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 09:49 PM   #12
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Re: What a run!

My copper, oil, coal and gas stocks are getting crushed.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 10:08 PM   #13
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Re: What a run!

S&P up 9ish% YTD. Another 2-3% by year's end is not what one can call irrational exuberance viewed against the 20+% of 2003 and similar numbers of the 90's.

Never underestimate the power of relentless 401K contributions in a world where supply and demand for shares of stock determines its price.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 10:11 PM   #14
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Re: What a run!

Yea ... interesting what's going on with commodities. I'm still not optimistic about the dollar.

But, glad to see my "normal" mutual funds are doing so well. Interesting time ... I wonder how the market will look post elections.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 10:22 PM   #15
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Re: What a run!

My CN fund was the only fund that went down, I am sure that it is commodities. But I am content. They have resources in demand when other economies are growing, and if the Middle East blows up .... well like an insurance policy I hope not to need it.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 10:51 PM   #16
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
The rally has beat up all the market timers.
Well, for what it's worth, not all of them. Brinker has his followers in and enjoying the run up using mostly vtsmx or vti.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-04-2006, 11:35 PM   #17
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Re: What a run!

YTD is almost 15% -- due to nice returns from REIT, International explorer, European, International value and large cap value -- despite a negative return from commodity (PCRIX).

Thinking about reducing exposure to REIT, small cap, and commodity and tilt toward large growth.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-05-2006, 06:36 AM   #18
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
YTD is almost 15% -- due to nice returns from REIT, International explorer, European, International value and large cap value -- despite a negative return from commodity (PCRIX).

Thinking about reducing exposure to REIT, small cap, and commodity and tilt toward large growth.
Um, why? Chasing performance, or do you have a solid reason behind your thought?

Whenever you make a change to your portfolio, the first thought should be: which of the psychological traps so damaging to investors am I about to fall into?
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-05-2006, 07:32 AM   #19
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Re: What a run!

Remember all that stock being bought for higher prices is being sold by someone thinking that it isn't going too much higher.
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Re: What a run!
Old 10-05-2006, 08:17 AM   #20
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Re: What a run!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cool Dood
Up or down... I don't really care for the next few decades.
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