What age will you die?

[akck]

I've been using 95 in my plans. I use it more to find the return needed on my investment accounts to last that long. Currently, it's less than 2%, so I figure I'm good for beyond that age.

 

[Tigger]

I plan for an infinite lifespan.

Despite the rumours, I'm really an optimist.

 

[bbbamI]

It just occurred to me that at the end of this year, DH will be 57 and I'll be 54. That means I can knock off a year of retirement when I use FIREcalc. ......

 

[kumquat]

Methusalah lived 969 years. To plan on less would not be prudent.

Ha

Not good enough, you may be a black swan. Do you really want to run out of money at 976?

 

[donheff]

I use 95 for calculations but I don't expect to be spending much past my early 80s. We budget a large amount for travel. But I don't expect I will be up for extensive travel at that age and with decent health insurance and LTC I don't anticipate huge medical costs. Maybe I will remodel the house in 20 years to make things more comfy for the denouement -elevator, media room.

 

[powerplay]

I plan for 100 although I'm not sure I would want to live till then. I would rather have some money left over than not have enough to carry me that long. Guess that means I should get serious about putting a will together.

 

[HFWR]

...for you die-hards...

Pun intended...

I assume about age 85, based on family history, various good and bad habits, etc. But it could be <ack>...............................

 

[martyb]

I figure to age 90. My dad died at 78, his dad at 79, great-grandad at age 90. That's on my dad's side. Mom's side did a little better but not much. I'm not too worried about it. Even if I run out of money in all my accounts, I'll still get my 2 COLA'd pensions till I croak, and I'm fairly sure they'll keep me afloat. I probably won't need as much when I'm 90 as when I'm 60. That assumes all basic needs and health & LTC coverage, which I am/will be prepared for. If I kick off, wife will get survivor benefits from my 2 pensions plus her own SS, and will have all the insurance that we both shared while I was alive. We'll be ok.

 

[Midpack]

I use 95 in our plans, splitting hairs out that far is statistical noise. And I hope I am long gone before I reach 95, though my parents are both 89 and still puttering along...

 

[Bikerdude]

Try this......


The Death Clock - When Am I Going To Die?

 

[Meadbh]

Statistics, Shmatistics!

I plan to kick the bucket (after ticking off everything on the bucket list) at 75. I'll announce it on the forum so you can all come to the party.

 

[W2R]

Statistics, Shmatistics!

I plan to kick the bucket (after ticking off everything on the bucket list) at 75. I'll announce it on the forum so you can all come to the party.

Not me! If I don't live until at least 85, it just wouldn't be right. I'll sue.

 

[plex]

Planning on 100, every decade the maximum life expectancy goes up by about a year, so I think that is reasonable for my young age. My great grandfather lived to 102, and both my grandfathers into their late 80s, despite one falling off a high ladder three separate times in his 80s, and the other having a chronic depression disorder for a long time.

 

[Khan]

I've been using 80 as cut off, am considering lowering that to 75.

 

[kumquat]

Statistics, Shmatistics!

I plan to kick the bucket (after ticking off everything on the bucket list) at 75. I'll announce it on the forum so you can all come to the party.

I'm sorta with you. If I screw up, will you help?

 

[Meadbh]

I'm sorta with you. If I screw up, will you help?

If I'm still around, I'll consider it.

 

[BigNick]

He's lived a very long life because he ate small meals...

The statistics all say that this is a key point. You see lots of little old ladies, but not many big old ladies. Maybe the obesity epidemic will save SS...

 

[MasterBlaster]

Seriously now, I believe that I have misled you there. I have since removed that line from my post.

What the chart shows is that if you make it to 85 years old then your mean life expectancy is less than 10 years.

Sorry for the confusion.

Looking at another source (Actuarial Life Table) it shows that for men around 30% of the population will make it to 85. For women 45 % make it to 85.

From that same source only 1% of men and ~3 % of woman will make it to 99. Similarly ~15% of men and 26% of woman will make it to 90.

The data linked above plotted for your entertainment.

Mean Probability of Living Versus Age (Men in Blue curve, Women in red)

The vertical dashed line is the 85 year old mark.

2006 data for the Social Security area population is comprised of (i) residents of the 50 States and the District of Columbia (adjusted for net census under­count); (ii) civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands; (iii) Federal civilian employees and persons in the U.S. Armed Forces abroad and their dependents; (iv) crew members of merchant vessels; and (v) all other U.S. citizens abroad.

 

[Ronstar]

Statistics, Shmatistics!

Here's something else to consider:

Firstborn of young mothers live longer

I'm the firstborn of a young mother, but my parents died in their 50's, so I have no clue when I'll die

 

[NW-Bound]

This whole age of death issue along with future investment returns, and future inflation rates, and future tax rates, and SS and Medicare status make this whole retirement planning thing a big crapshoot.

So that's why I dont plan my SWR to the second decimal point.

+1

I have run FIRECalc only a few times, just to get the ball park. And I just left the default duration at 30 years. Yet, as I am 54 now, I do not think I even last till 84. And more, I want to keep my SWR low, something like 3%, even if I do not think SS will go away. Why the contradiction of a low SWR when I do not expect to live a long time? Let me explain. It's actually really simple.

All my life, I am accustomed to seeing my net worth increasing each year. FIRECalc says that at 3%, it is not guaranteed, but highly likely that I will continue to have more each year, or at least maintain my stash. I like that. Just because I am getting older, it does not mean that I will get tired of counting my money.

So, at 3% SWR + SS, it makes no difference whether it is for 30 years or longer. It either lasts me a long time, if I live to 100. And if some calamities strike, or some seismic changes happen in the world, and the US economy goes down the tube, what difference does it make to plan for 45 years or 30 years?

Come on people. It's just a ball park guesstimate. Just because a computer program spits something out, the future does not have to unfold exactly like that.

 

[obgyn65]

I am 45, intend to retire in 2017, and my plans go up to age 95.

 

[traineeinvestor]

I use 50 years as our retirement duration - the difference between 50 years and infinity isn't meangingful. That implies an average age of 94 for us.

 

[Arnie]

Methusalah lived 969 years. To plan on less would not be prudent.

+1
And that is a great argument for delaying SS. 100 seems pretty old to me though, so that's what I'm using for planning purposes.

 

[Spanky]

I plan to kick the bucket (after ticking off everything on the bucket list) at 75. I'll announce it on the forum so you can all come to the party.

Speaking of bucket, do you have a bucket list?

 

[ls99]

5, 4, 3, 2, 1 Days, month, years, decades? I don't know. Guaranteed, will not escape alive.