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What age will you die?
Old 03-30-2011, 10:35 AM   #1
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What age will you die?

Guys,

I am trying to get an idea about lifespans. Could you post how old you are now and what age you use to put into FIRECALC or other tools for how long your nest egg should last (20,25,30, 35, 40, 45 years)

I am currently 38 and using 99 as my death age and retirement age of 55. So 44 years for my nest egg to last.

Maybe I am too aggressive thinking I need money until I am 99, maybe I could retire earlier?

I have looked at all the standard tables etc. But wanted to get a reality check form people who are doing it now, rather than some tabulated lifespan tables that take all people and dump them into a bucket.
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Old 03-30-2011, 10:40 AM   #2
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Here is what the IRS uses for life expectancy:

Keep in mind that this is a mean value.
Keep in mind the deviation about the mean. Half of the people will live longer and vice-versa.

If I eyeballed the chart correctly a 38 year old has a life expectancy of ~ 45 years making the mean age of death ~ 83.

Also keep in mind survivors bias in the numbers. If you make it to 65 years old, for example, you can expect to live to 85 and so on. Note that this is higher than the life expectancy at younger ages (ie. 38). That's because some of your peers have already passed making the expected age of death a higher number.

Also notice from the chart that there is a small percentage of people living beyond 99 years old.

The other issue is... Will you need as much income at 80 or 90 years old as at say 55 or 65 years old ? Barring long stays in a nursing home and extravagant medical expenses at 80-90, perhaps some premium cable channels and a bag of Cheetos would mean living the good life. Extensive travel, cars, and housing upgrades seem kind of pointless at that age.
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Old 03-30-2011, 10:41 AM   #3
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Old 03-30-2011, 10:58 AM   #4
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I am 51, plan on retiring at 55, and have been using 45 years (100 years old) as the life span. I am in good health as is my wife--we both have longevity in our respective families, there isn't a history of cancer, etc. So we figure we better plan for 100. My dad is still around at 85 and he is the baby of the family (his older brother is 96 and still alive). My wife's grandmother died a couple of years ago at age 93...so we figure better safe then sorry. But if you were to ask me I would say 80-90 max but who knows. For us it is a moot point anyways as we have to wait until 55 as that is when my wife gets her pension. We are too close to walk away from it at this point.
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:00 AM   #5
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For planning purposes, DW/my "end date" on our retirement financial forecast is set at age 100 (we're currently 63).

I would rather die with money than live without it ...
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:04 AM   #6
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Methusalah lived 969 years. To plan on less would not be prudent.

Ha
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:05 AM   #7
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I am 67 and used 85 for me and 100 for DW. I have run several calculators that take lifestyle into account and most show me at 90 and DW at 95. As SS goes down with the death of either of us, the main thing is my pensions is cut in half when I die, so my spread sheets figure on me going before DW.
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:05 AM   #8
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I'm 56, DW 55, and I use life expectancy of DW at 93.
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:10 AM   #9
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This whole age of death issue along with future investment returns, and future inflation rates, and future tax rates, and SS and Medicare status make this whole retirement planning thing a big crapshoot.

So that's why I dont plan my SWR to the second decimal point.
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:25 AM   #10
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I remember the first time I entered my expected life expectancy of 90 into an older version of Quicken and let it pull up my retirement plan--there was a little note at the end that said "plan end xx/xx/xxxx". Wow, that'll remind you of your mortality.

So, ever since, we talk about getting stuff done before our "plan ends".

Only one of my relatives lived into 90s. Most of them didn't make it into their 80s. Parents are just now turning 70 and not in awesome health.
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Old 03-30-2011, 11:25 AM   #11
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Dad died at 45, mom at 46, grandparents were 80's and 90's
So I don't concern myself with it.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:02 PM   #12
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When I was building our plan in 2002, I used various life expectancy calculators and concluded that 91 was the mean but that the bell curve showed a 10% chance of living to 100. So I use 100. My Dad lasted until 95, still independent living at home.

With the passage of 8 years, I figure that 100 represents the 15th percentile.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:03 PM   #13
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I used 90 for projections, but men in my family have not lived that long. My Dad died at 83, brother 56 and grandfathers 61 and 68. But my mom is rocking along at 93, so who knows whats in store for me. I really don't want to know.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:10 PM   #14
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I'm 62, and my retirement financial planning extends out to age 95. (Realistically, I only expect to live to around 85 or so, but I am prepared in case I live longer).

If I live to 85, I will re-do my retirement financial plan and extend it to age 100 just in case.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:44 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Methusalah lived 969 years. To plan on less would not be prudent.

Ha
......oh my.

Both retired, I'm 53 and DH is 56. I use life expectancy of 88 for me and 91 for DH.

Quite frankly, I don't see either one of us living that long.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:44 PM   #16
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Here's some more fun data for your analysis. This is data taken in 2003 from the total population of the United States.

The green curve shows the probability of living 5 additional years given your age. Blue is the probability of living 10 years, purple 15 years and so on.

Notice that a 65 year old has about a 50% chance of living to 85 and maybe a 23$ chance of living to 90.

But if you make it to 90 years old you have around a 40% chance to make it to 95.

all the data comes from this table - for you die-hards...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...03_Table_1.png


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Old 03-30-2011, 12:44 PM   #17
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I plan to live forever, but my body will not cooperate. For planning purposes, it is 95.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:51 PM   #18
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Master Blaster that is a very telling stat that less than 10% of the population make it to 85. I suppose you are really going kick me in the groin by next saying most of those people of that age are women!!
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:53 PM   #19
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Quote:
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Master Blaster that is a very telling stat that less than 10% of the population make it to 85. I suppose you are really going kick me in the groin by next saying most of those people of that age are women!!
Men can only handle those women for so long. All that nagging makes them die off earlier.
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Old 03-30-2011, 12:57 PM   #20
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Interesting question. My father died a relatively "early" death from cancer at age 70. Two grandparents made it to their late-80s. Another grandparent made it to her mid-90s (96 to be exact). The last grandparent? He's still alive and will be turning 100 years old in another month and a half. He's lived a very long life because he ate small meals and exercised every day (walking, swimming, golf, etc...) and also did a lot of the "heavy lifting" catering to my invalid grandmother for 20+ years, along with retail sales until his mid-80s.

I'm even more acting than he is and hope to continue to be so for the rest of my life. That means I'm using 100+ as my outlier age.
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