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What if we have another lost quarter
Old 11-18-2014, 01:48 PM   #1
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What if we have another lost quarter

Just wondering what others might think of the idea that we may have another lost quarter for the economy, like first quarter 2014. With the cold and snow hitting large parts of the country this week and into next week, we could have another lost quarter of job growth and sales growth.

Is anyone thinking about your personal response to such an event, if it were to happen? Buy more S&P with a decline in the market or just re-adjust AA?

What do you think the odds of such an event? Our recovery hasn't exactly been robust, so are we more vulnerable to such an event? What would be the typical response be to a couple really cold months be? That is, I know those on this board would mostly say stick with your AA and index funds, and I would agree, but how would the rest of the country react?
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Old 11-18-2014, 02:00 PM   #2
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That is, I know those on this board would mostly say stick with your AA and index funds, and I would agree, but how would the rest of the country react?
Hopefully they'll respond with a massive selloff that allows me to buy more shares!

In reality, I pay so little attention to quarters, a little more to years, and a lot to decades. This year I'm up a little over 11% so far. This decade has been great so far.

I guess the counter-question is: if you agree stick with AA and index funds, why then do you ask?
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Old 11-18-2014, 02:04 PM   #3
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"If you can plug your ears to every attempt by anyone to predict what the markets will do, you will outperform nearly every other investor alive over the long run."

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Old 11-18-2014, 02:48 PM   #4
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Depends on what you are looking for. Personally , the only equities I have are vary large cap., dividend paying shares, so it would be a non - event. For someone looking at "Growth" stocks in the Casino part of Wall Street , that would be another matter.
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Old 11-18-2014, 03:10 PM   #5
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I guess the counter-question is: if you agree stick with AA and index funds, why then do you ask?
I find it interesting to watch how people respond, and I'm a numbers guy, but since my plan says don't respond except to watch my AA I can only talk about it
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Old 11-18-2014, 03:21 PM   #6
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At first I thought you meant a quarter of a century, which would be a bad thing to lose. But a lost 3 months? We lose days, months, and quarters all the time. Nothing to worry about. Nothing would change for me.
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Old 11-18-2014, 03:26 PM   #7
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A "lost quarter" might be a major life event for a market timer but for those of us in the AA/rebalance crowd it is little more than background noise.
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Old 11-18-2014, 04:19 PM   #8
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I have some extra $$$ lying around that I'm not going to spend. So if the market drops say 10% or more, I'll buy some more broad based etf that pays a dividend.
Personally I think the market will flat line for a long time, as it has been totally weird the last 2 yrs.
Regardless about 95% of my investments won't change.
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Old 11-18-2014, 04:32 PM   #9
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Most of my lost quarters end up in the washing machine drain filter.
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Old 11-18-2014, 05:10 PM   #10
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Most of my lost quarters end up in the washing machine drain filter.
Mine are floating around under my car seat.

Lost quarter? My portfolio grew during that quarter so let's hope they are all lost like that.

As for how the rest of the country would react, the "talking heads" on CNBC and other financial shows and websites would freak and predict financial armageddon, just like they do every single day of every single year. People trying to sell gold and annuities to the forum's relatively wealthy membership would be attempting to hawk their wares on the forum (if we don't stop them first), just like they always do.
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Old 11-18-2014, 05:32 PM   #11
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I'm in REWahoo's camp - it's just background noise.
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Old 11-18-2014, 05:48 PM   #12
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Lost quarter?

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Old 11-18-2014, 05:49 PM   #13
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A "lost quarter" might be a major life event for a market timer but for those of us in the AA/rebalance crowd it is little more than background noise.
Yes, this. Frankly too many investors are becoming too unreasonable in terms of expecting double digit earnings growth every quarter. And that forces executives to make suboptimal long-term decisions to "cut costs" during periods of lower growth. That not only contributes to a recession when enough companies do it, but it also forces them to spend more to reinvest when the economy recovers and they need more employees and equipment.

I guess in the instant communication age, this is inevitable. But I don't think it's good for the markets or for the economy, really.

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Lost quarter?
Not to worry. I just found it under the seat cushions.
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Old 11-18-2014, 05:57 PM   #14
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but how would the rest of the country react?
Good question. Many would run around as if their hair were on fire and then pay a "financial advisor" for advice on which managed mutual fund or hedge fund to invest in.

Good to know that we are not like the rest of the country.
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Old 11-18-2014, 08:26 PM   #15
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