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Old 02-27-2010, 09:02 AM   #41
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What well known scientists? Where did they state such a solution and where did they state the belief of an ice age? Peer-reviewed primary sources, please; not Newsweek or Time.
This has many sources including Newsweek and Time but others from the science community as well. I was alive in the 70's and the next "ice age" news was everywhere. Keeps scientists in grants I guess.

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Old 02-27-2010, 09:18 AM   #42
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I think the short answer is that the state simply stops paying its obligations. To the best of my knowledge, during the Great Depression only one state (Arkansas, I think) defaulted on its General Obligation bonds. There have been no state defaults since. And municipalities rarely default. See this Moody's special report http://www.moodys.com/cust/content/c.../102249_rm.pdf which was admittedly published prior to the latest crash, but has some good historical information.
But what about those many "Chicken Littles" running around screaming "the sky is falling"? Why just this morning I suffered through read two articles warning that the whole country (the USA, I assume) is "on the verge of -- or on the road to -- bankruptcy." How do they imagine that is possible?
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Old 02-27-2010, 10:45 AM   #43
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Since you mentioned Newsweek here is their 1975 article. It's amazing how like today this article sounds even though the argument is 180 degrees out of phase.
Newsweek is not a peer reviewed journal. The climate change studies done in the 70s mentioned global warming significantly more than global cooling. Also, Newsweek apologized for the hype of that article. It made good print but it wasn't good science.
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Old 02-27-2010, 11:38 AM   #44
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This has many sources including Newsweek and Time but others from the science community as well. I was alive in the 70's and the next "ice age" news was everywhere. Keeps scientists in grants I guess.
Time is also not a peer reviewed journal. Further, a youtube video claiming "consensus" is as valuable as quoting a Newsweek article. There was no "consensus," especially since climate change science was in its infancy. From the Damon and Kunen paper, 1976:

"Because of the differential effects of the two major sources of atmospheric pollution, the CO2 greenhouse effect warming trend should first become evident in the Southern Hemisphere."


I know that scientific studies are dismissed in favor of "popular press" but this meta-study has some numbers.

Study debunks 'global cooling' concern of '70s - USATODAY.com

"But Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center surveyed dozens of peer-reviewed scientific articles from 1965 to 1979 and found that only seven supported global cooling, while 44 predicted warming."

7! to 44! What consensus about global cooling?



PS. Emiliani did say there might be another ice age..."within a few thousand years." In fact, he also said in the 70s that there could be “a runaway deglaciation” due to greenhouse warming.

PPS. Hansen's "An Alternative Scenario" is about a huge effort to reduce greenhouse gases. From the abstract,

"The grim "business-as-usual" climate change is avoided in an alternative scenario in which growth of greenhouse gas emissions is slowed in the first quarter of this century, primarily via concerted improvements in energy efficiency"
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Old 02-27-2010, 12:23 PM   #45
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Excuse me, but what in the devil does this global warming dribble have to do with the op's original post? If you want to argue GW take it to another thread.
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Old 02-27-2010, 12:26 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by eridanus View Post
"But Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center surveyed dozens of peer-reviewed scientific articles from 1965 to 1979 and found that only seven supported global cooling, while 44 predicted warming."

7! to 44! What consensus about global cooling?
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Old 02-27-2010, 12:30 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by eridanus View Post
Time is also not a peer reviewed journal. Further, a youtube video claiming "consensus" is as valuable as quoting a Newsweek article. There was no "consensus," especially since climate change science was in its infancy. From the Damon and Kunen paper, 1976:

"Because of the differential effects of the two major sources of atmospheric pollution, the CO2 greenhouse effect warming trend should first become evident in the Southern Hemisphere."


I know that scientific studies are dismissed in favor of "popular press" but this meta-study has some numbers.

Study debunks 'global cooling' concern of '70s - USATODAY.com

"But Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center surveyed dozens of peer-reviewed scientific articles from 1965 to 1979 and found that only seven supported global cooling, while 44 predicted warming."

7! to 44! What consensus about global cooling?



PS. Emiliani did say there might be another ice age..."within a few thousand years." In fact, he also said in the 70s that there could be “a runaway deglaciation” due to greenhouse warming.

PPS. Hansen's "An Alternative Scenario" is about a huge effort to reduce greenhouse gases. From the abstract,

"The grim "business-as-usual" climate change is avoided in an alternative scenario in which growth of greenhouse gas emissions is slowed in the first quarter of this century, primarily via concerted improvements in energy efficiency"
Hey you asked for something other than Time or Newsweek and I found something in about 2 minutes that had other sources. There's no doubt that the earths climate is changing. Always has and always will. There was a mile of ice on top of my house 10,000 years ago so I guess we have been warming since then. Maybe we will get warmer maybe colder, I don't think anyone knows for sure. The question is does it make sense to tax peoples behavior based upon the fact that the earths climate changes. If you ask a politician trying to raise more revenue I'm sure he would say, yes!
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Old 02-27-2010, 12:36 PM   #48
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Well, if we don't have the money, maybe we should cut back some. I asked about the tarp money and that was blown through last year. I would assume all that gas tax money should at least be able to fund maintenance.
Huh? Most of the banks have paid back their TARP money. What do you mean "blown"?

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Old 02-27-2010, 12:39 PM   #49
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But what about those many "Chicken Littles" running around screaming "the sky is falling"? Why just this morning I suffered through read two articles warning that the whole country (the USA, I assume) is "on the verge of -- or on the road to -- bankruptcy." How do they imagine that is possible?
They don't have to explain how it is possible and I suspect they don't care either. They only need to get people fired up to sell newspapers/magazines.

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Old 02-27-2010, 12:50 PM   #50
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I seemed to have missed something. How did this thread go from State bankruptcy to global warming?
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Old 02-27-2010, 01:42 PM   #51
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I seemed to have missed something. How did this thread go from State bankruptcy to global warming?
I always liked Ernest Hemingway's answer (although he was responding to "How did you go bankrupt?).

"Slowly at first. Then quit rapidly."
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Old 02-27-2010, 08:13 PM   #52
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Huh? Most of the banks have paid back their TARP money. What do you mean "blown"?

Audrey
I meant the stimulus money that was spent on highway construction. The money that Missouri was given was spent last year.
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Old 02-27-2010, 10:08 PM   #53
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I seemed to have missed something. How did this thread go from State bankruptcy to global warming?
Well a tax on the latter would allow states to balance their budgets while claiming that they were saving you. Do you remember the tobacco settlement? I think our state spent about 1% on preventing tobacco use and 99% was used in the general fund to keep the current political machine in power.
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Old 02-27-2010, 11:34 PM   #54
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A state may not not be a debtor under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (i.e. "file bankruptcy" as that term is commonly used). A municipality may be a debtor (a Chapter 9 case) only if specifically authorized by state law (See 11 U.S.C. Sec. 109). The City of Bridgeport, CT tried to file a bankruptcy petition about 19 years ago and, at the urging of the State of CT, was thrown out of court.

I think the short answer is that the state simply stops paying its obligations. To the best of my knowledge, during the Great Depression only one state (Arkansas, I think) defaulted on its General Obligation bonds. There have been no state defaults since. And municipalities rarely default. See this Moody's special report http://www.moodys.com/cust/content/c.../102249_rm.pdf which was admittedly published prior to the latest crash, but has some good historical information.
The other issue is even if a municipality files bankruptcy, there are certain debts that it may not be able to address. IIRC, no municipality bankruptcy has wiped out vested pension benefits and it is questionable whether they can. However, bankruptcy is useful for setting aside current collective bargaining agreements.
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Old 02-28-2010, 06:45 AM   #55
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I seemed to have missed something. How did this thread go from State bankruptcy to global warming?
I apologize for that; it all started about post number 26. I should not have responded to some of the following posts.
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Old 01-21-2011, 09:31 AM   #56
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How, exactly, would a government entity the size of a State go Bankrupt. Would it stop paying its debts and have a special Court take over the operations? Would the Legislature be required the seek permission before voting or simply be declared null and void.

All in all, this doesn't seem such a bad thing, does it?

On the other hand, it could only invite a whole new infestation of Weasels.
Apparently, I am not the only one who wants an answer (or, in this case -- speaking of Weasels, a solution):

A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens

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Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

Unlike cities, the states are barred from seeking protection in federal bankruptcy court.
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Old 01-21-2011, 09:37 AM   #57
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Disturbs me that this country has a "bailout mentality" - print more money and all will be well....

Only benefit I see about a state bankruptcy declaration is the ability to sever/renegotiate state labor pay/retirement contracts.
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Old 01-21-2011, 09:40 AM   #58
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Only benefit I see about a state bankruptcy declaration is the ability to sever/renegotiate state labor pay/retirement contracts.
No more phone calls folks, we have a winner!
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Old 01-21-2011, 02:55 PM   #59
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No more phone calls folks, we have a winner!

The economist recently published a map of US states comparing their GDP to countries. So for example California is Italy (it used to be France) and little Hawaii had the GDP equivalence of Croatia.

I think it would interesting map showing the fiscal health of states compared to countries. I am pretty sure that Illinois is about the same as Greece and sure enough Greece cut pensions, government pay and service when it went almost bankrupt.
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Old 01-21-2011, 03:04 PM   #60
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The economist recently published a map of US states comparing their GDP to countries. So for example California is Italy (it used to be France) and little Hawaii had the GDP equivalence of Croatia.

I think it would interesting map showing the fiscal health of states compared to countries. I am pretty sure that Illinois is about the same as Greece and sure enough Greece cut pensions, government pay and service when it went almost bankrupt.

Size isn't everything, as they say.
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