what is your nestegg's YTD return?

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdiercks REWahoo....I guess that seems to be the what the average investor thinks. However there are a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the markets that have been used for years (ie. trend following). Just ask John Henry the Red Sox owner.

Sorry, I don't know John Henry and doubt he'd take my call inquiring about market timing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdiercks I think deciding that you are going to sit and take what well could be another 2007-2008 type market may not be very smart! Wouldn't you agree?

No, I wouldn't agree.

What wouldn't be smart is for me to believe you or any other financial guru has identified “a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the market”. It would not be smart for me to believe you can accurately predict what the market will do, when it will do it, and make any significant changes to my portfolio based on your “simple methods”.

Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.

Well it depends on the price. There is a lot of investment ideas I'll gladly pay $0 or take advantage of free trial offer.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp Well it depends on the price. There is a lot of investment ideas I'll gladly pay $0 or take advantage of free trial offer.

I said 'very few', expecting some curiosity seekers...

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sarah in SC Oooh, I LOVE pedal steel guitar! A band we've been following lately is American Aquarium, out of Raleigh. I absolutely swoon over their pedal steel guitar player. Keep hoping my DH will offer up some latent guitar talents, but alas, no luck thus far. That is really impressive. And your strategy sounds pretty smart to me, with or without steel.

Thank you, Sarah - I am always glad to see steel fans! I would post a video, but don't think it appropriate for this topic

[MDJO]

9.0% - 70 % stock, 25% bond, 5% cash

[Sarah in SC]

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman Thank you, Sarah - I am always glad to see steel fans! I would post a video, but don't think it appropriate for this topic

Oh I don't know, we always welcome a good thread jack! bring it on!

[plex]

90/10, 8% YTD, internationals pulling my returns down a bit.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sarah in SC Oh I don't know, we always welcome a good thread jack! bring it on!

Got a new thread in "Other Topics" called "Pedal Steel Guitar". Hope you like it! Back to YTD returns

[Bestwifeever]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo ....Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.

Why do these services remind me of the punchline of a great awful joke: “I’m gonna need another week to come up with the $500.”

[Walt34]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdiercks REWahoo....I guess that seems to be the what the average investor thinks. However there are a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the markets that have been used for years (ie. trend following).

Simple methods for market timing?

I'll pass, thanks.

[mickeyd]

This thread reminded me of a quote that I have in my files by Harry Maorkwitz on the subject of checking on your portfolio returns~

Quote:

“If you do like I recommend, look at your portfolio once a year when you do your income taxes.” Harry Markowitz, Nobel laureate, father of MPT

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeyd This thread reminded me of a quote that I have in my files by Harry Maorkwitz on the subject of checking on your portfolio returns~

Ya but Maorkwitz was working we are retired so we got time to check these things.

[unclemick]

My market timing is simple - start of regular football season. It's a male hormone thing - I take my mad money and 'shift a few deck chairs on the Titanic' so to speak.

Retirement money stays on full auto - hopefully I'll get another 20 years of ER. The first 20 - my dinking on average damped progress a tad.

Heh heh heh - of course selective memory only remembers my more brilliant moves.

[Andre1969]

I think market timing can work, if you really know what you're doing. Problem is, most people, myself included, don't. And end up shooting themselves in the foot when they try it.

However, I have tried it, as an experiment and on a small scale, with one of my old 401k plans that I never rolled over. It's a fairly small amount, so even if I totally blew it and lost everything, it wouldn't send me to the poor house.

Anyhoo...here's the details. I have this 401k divided into only two components...Boeing company stock and a bond index fund. Staring in early 2010, I began to sell off the Boeing stock as it went up and switch it to the bond fund. If it fell off, I'd buy some back. Dunno if you could call this "market timing" or just "aggressive rebalancing". But, since 12/31/2009, that 401k is up about 51.4%, as of the 7/6/12 market close. If I had simply left it alone and not moved any money back and forth between the two funds, it would still be up around 42.4%

So, in fiddling around, I've improved the return by about 9%, over the course of about 2 1/2 years. And with it being in a 401k, there's no tax consequence, and I also make sure to not do it often enough that I get penalized for frequent trading.

Now, 9% isn't a HUGE difference. I could probably improve upon that, if I was better at it, and more aggressive.

[Rowdy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rowdy YTD 5.2% with 80% stock (30% Lg, 25% mid/small, 25% foreign), 15% bond, and 5% REIT mix. Have about 55% conventional and 45% index mix. Weighted average expenses = 0.44%. Disappointing that I didn't beat the S&P 500 Index...

OK, looks like I FUBAR'd my calculations. Should be 7.1%...now I feel better.

[obgyn65]

Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by obgyn65 Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !

Return is only a part of the equation -- size of the portfolio counts more.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by obgyn65 Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !

You are not surprised are you? As I recall, you are invested for low volatility, not high returns. If the next 6 months sees a negative return in the market, you will probably have a high relative return.

But 6 months doesn't matter much for an ER. 30-40 years matters, and those low volatility investments have historically done relatively poorly over 30-40 year periods. So poorly that you need to almost cut your WR in half for the same historic success rates. Oh, and expenses matter too.

-ERD50

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky Return is only a part of the equation -- size of the portfolio counts more.

Size matters! Better to make 2% of $100 million than 10% of 2million.

[scrabbler1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by obgyn65 Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !

And I thought my return was the lowest although I was not including the dividends I took out as cash. Including those, my return would be closer to 5% (not 3.5%). But as others replied, it is the size of the portfolio which matters a lot.