Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 07-06-2012, 05:43 PM   #101
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdiercks View Post
REWahoo....I guess that seems to be the what the average investor thinks. However there are a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the markets that have been used for years (ie. trend following). Just ask John Henry the Red Sox owner.
Sorry, I don't know John Henry and doubt he'd take my call inquiring about market timing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdiercks View Post
I think deciding that you are going to sit and take what well could be another 2007-2008 type market may not be very smart! Wouldn't you agree?
No, I wouldn't agree.

What wouldn't be smart is for me to believe you or any other financial guru has identified “a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the market”. It would not be smart for me to believe you can accurately predict what the market will do, when it will do it, and make any significant changes to my portfolio based on your “simple methods”.

Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 07-06-2012, 06:18 PM   #102
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,451
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post

Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.
Well it depends on the price. There is a lot of investment ideas I'll gladly pay $0 or take advantage of free trial offer.
__________________

__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 06:36 PM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,134
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
Well it depends on the price. There is a lot of investment ideas I'll gladly pay $0 or take advantage of free trial offer.
I said 'very few', expecting some curiosity seekers...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 06:46 PM   #104
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Triangle
Posts: 3,218
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah in SC

Oooh, I LOVE pedal steel guitar! A band we've been following lately is American Aquarium, out of Raleigh. I absolutely swoon over their pedal steel guitar player. Keep hoping my DH will offer up some latent guitar talents, but alas, no luck thus far. That is really impressive.

And your strategy sounds pretty smart to me, with or without steel.
Thank you, Sarah - I am always glad to see steel fans! I would post a video, but don't think it appropriate for this topic
__________________

steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 06:58 PM   #105
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 241
9.0% - 70 % stock, 25% bond, 5% cash
__________________
MDJO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 07:40 PM   #106
Moderator
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,456
Quote:
Originally Posted by steelyman

Thank you, Sarah - I am always glad to see steel fans! I would post a video, but don't think it appropriate for this topic
Oh I don't know, we always welcome a good thread jack! bring it on!
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 08:04 PM   #107
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 589
90/10, 8% YTD, internationals pulling my returns down a bit.
__________________
plex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 08:22 PM   #108
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Triangle
Posts: 3,218
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah in SC View Post
Oh I don't know, we always welcome a good thread jack! bring it on!
Got a new thread in "Other Topics" called "Pedal Steel Guitar". Hope you like it! Back to YTD returns
__________________

steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2012, 08:24 PM   #109
Moderator Emeritus
Bestwifeever's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 16,375
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
....Good luck on your attempt to interest folks on this forum to sign up for your services. I suspect you will find very few takers.
Why do these services remind me of the punchline of a great awful joke: “I’m gonna need another week to come up with the $500.”
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
Bestwifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-07-2012, 06:35 AM   #110
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 16,571
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdiercks View Post
REWahoo....I guess that seems to be the what the average investor thinks. However there are a number of simple methods for timing big swings in the markets that have been used for years (ie. trend following).
Simple methods for market timing?

I'll pass, thanks.
__________________
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-07-2012, 11:40 AM   #111
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W
Posts: 5,884
This thread reminded me of a quote that I have in my files by Harry Maorkwitz on the subject of checking on your portfolio returns~

Quote:
“If you do like I recommend, look at your portfolio once a year when you do your income taxes.” Harry Markowitz, Nobel laureate, father of MPT
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-07-2012, 04:30 PM   #112
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,451
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd View Post
This thread reminded me of a quote that I have in my files by Harry Maorkwitz on the subject of checking on your portfolio returns~

Ya but Maorkwitz was working we are retired so we got time to check these things.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-07-2012, 11:05 PM   #113
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
My market timing is simple - start of regular football season. It's a male hormone thing - I take my mad money and 'shift a few deck chairs on the Titanic' so to speak.

Retirement money stays on full auto - hopefully I'll get another 20 years of ER. The first 20 - my dinking on average damped progress a tad.

Heh heh heh - of course selective memory only remembers my more brilliant moves.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2012, 09:22 AM   #114
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 2,056
I think market timing can work, if you really know what you're doing. Problem is, most people, myself included, don't. And end up shooting themselves in the foot when they try it.

However, I have tried it, as an experiment and on a small scale, with one of my old 401k plans that I never rolled over. It's a fairly small amount, so even if I totally blew it and lost everything, it wouldn't send me to the poor house.

Anyhoo...here's the details. I have this 401k divided into only two components...Boeing company stock and a bond index fund. Staring in early 2010, I began to sell off the Boeing stock as it went up and switch it to the bond fund. If it fell off, I'd buy some back. Dunno if you could call this "market timing" or just "aggressive rebalancing". But, since 12/31/2009, that 401k is up about 51.4%, as of the 7/6/12 market close. If I had simply left it alone and not moved any money back and forth between the two funds, it would still be up around 42.4%

So, in fiddling around, I've improved the return by about 9%, over the course of about 2 1/2 years. And with it being in a 401k, there's no tax consequence, and I also make sure to not do it often enough that I get penalized for frequent trading.

Now, 9% isn't a HUGE difference. I could probably improve upon that, if I was better at it, and more aggressive.
__________________
Andre1969 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2012, 08:15 PM   #115
Recycles dryer sheets
Rowdy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rowdy View Post
YTD 5.2% with 80% stock (30% Lg, 25% mid/small, 25% foreign), 15% bond, and 5% REIT mix. Have about 55% conventional and 45% index mix. Weighted average expenses = 0.44%.

Disappointing that I didn't beat the S&P 500 Index...
OK, looks like I FUBAR'd my calculations. Should be 7.1%...now I feel better.
__________________
Rowdy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 02:41 AM   #116
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
obgyn65's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 4,061
Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !
__________________
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
obgyn65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 07:58 AM   #117
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by obgyn65 View Post
Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !
Return is only a part of the equation -- size of the portfolio counts more.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 08:16 AM   #118
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,288
Quote:
Originally Posted by obgyn65 View Post
Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !
You are not surprised are you? As I recall, you are invested for low volatility, not high returns. If the next 6 months sees a negative return in the market, you will probably have a high relative return.

But 6 months doesn't matter much for an ER. 30-40 years matters, and those low volatility investments have historically done relatively poorly over 30-40 year periods. So poorly that you need to almost cut your WR in half for the same historic success rates. Oh, and expenses matter too.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 08:31 AM   #119
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,708
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
Return is only a part of the equation -- size of the portfolio counts more.
Size matters! Better to make 2% of $100 million than 10% of 2million.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2012, 08:51 AM   #120
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,871
Quote:
Originally Posted by obgyn65 View Post
Wow. It seems I have the lowest return when compared to everyone else in this forum !
And I thought my return was the lowest although I was not including the dividends I took out as cash. Including those, my return would be closer to 5% (not 3.5%). But as others replied, it is the size of the portfolio which matters a lot.
__________________

__________________
Retired in late 2008 at age 45. Cashed in company stock, bought a lot of shares in a big bond fund and am living nicely off its dividends. IRA, SS, and a pension await me at age 60 and later. No kids, no debts.

"I want my money working for me instead of me working for my money!"
scrabbler1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:48 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.