Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: What Overall Rate of Return are you using?
3-4.99% 8 5.41%
5-6.99% 63 42.57%
7-8.99% 64 43.24%
9-10.99% 10 6.76%
Something greater - please explain optimism! 1 0.68%
Something less than 3% - please explain pessimism! 2 1.35%
Voters: 148. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-26-2008, 11:29 AM   #41
Full time employment: Posting here.
Lusitan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Boston
Posts: 620
I use 6% if I'm having a good day (most days); 5% if I'm feeling especially pessimistic.
Lusitan is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-26-2008, 01:40 PM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,629
Quote:
Originally Posted by nickel View Post
It seems to me that time horizon should play an important role in determining expected returns. Those with more time can invest more aggressively, those with less can't (or shouldn't). So while the poll results are interesting, they're perhaps not that informative.

(FWIW, I've been assuming in the 7-8% range and am in my mid-30s.)
Agreed. A 35 year-old can assume long term averages for now, with plenty of time to adjust in the future.

A retiree age 65 has to be aware that those long term averages hide long strings of poor years.

It seems to me that anyone who is serious about a 4% SWR is implicitly assuming about 3% real. I don't know if we have any of those people responding to the poll, but I'm surprised that there aren't more low numbers.
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2008, 02:05 PM   #43
Dryer sheet aficionado
pie2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 26
We're currently earning about 5.2%. Our total portfolio has been invested conservatively for the past couple of years as we are winding down for retirement in the next few weeks. Had we lost money in this awful market over the past year, my husband would have refused to retire. After retirement I expect our return will fluctuate, but it will always be conservative. I'm using an initial rate of 4.6%. We'll adjust it year by year, but we always plan to withdraw less than we earn. If rates go to zero, I will panhandle so I can deposit money. haha
pie2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2008, 02:16 PM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by pie2008 View Post
We're currently earning about 5.2%. Our total portfolio has been invested conservatively for the past couple of years as we are winding down for retirement in the next few weeks. Had we lost money in this awful market over the past year, my husband would have refused to retire. After retirement I expect our return will fluctuate, but it will always be conservative. I'm using an initial rate of 4.6%. We'll adjust it year by year, but we always plan to withdraw less than we earn. If rates go to zero, I will panhandle so I can deposit money. haha
Not worried about inflation eating away your purchasing power?
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2008, 04:36 PM   #45
Dryer sheet aficionado
pie2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger View Post
Not worried about inflation eating away your purchasing power?
No, we've run our figures through many, many configurations using very conservative rates and higher inflation. We have always lived beneath our means -- we're "the millionaires next door." I grew up poor, so I still know how to live on next to nothing -- not that I want to go back to those days, but I could. When you're older, you buy less. Medical premiums (and later Medicare) may be our most challenging expense, but I figure everyone will be in the same boat then, and the outcry about lack of/poor medical care will be so great that the government will finally be forced to seriously tackle the issue. In the meantime, we go for all of our annual physicals and routine medical tests, and do most of the other things one is supposed to do to stay healthy.

As a sidenote: my doctor saw something suspicious when I recently went for a routine physical. She took a biopsy, and I spent a week in extreme anxiety waiting for the results which, I'm happy to say, were negative. But what made the biggest impression on me was that when I thought I was potentially facing something serious, I didn't regret that I didn't yet have a big screen TV or have traveled more, and I certainly didn't give a moment's thought about inflation -- all I wanted was more time doing simple things with my husband, like going for walks, preparing meals together, and waking up in a comfortable bed each morning with him by my side.
pie2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2008, 06:15 PM   #46
Recycles dryer sheets
bigla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 141
I use 7% now that I am retired.
__________________
Retired early and loving it.
bigla is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Future return rate? CCdaCE FIRE and Money 20 07-24-2007 06:41 AM
2% Real Rate of Return on FI? lbymfire FIRE and Money 4 06-07-2006 06:25 AM
Bernstein's future equity return projections wildcat FIRE and Money 2 12-06-2005 09:35 AM
Financial 'Experts' - Rate of Return .......... Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 2 06-16-2004 09:47 AM
Wealth accumulation phase rate of return newellcr Young Dreamers 16 09-02-2003 07:58 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:53 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.