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Old 01-17-2013, 06:07 PM   #61
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Around 50%. And I think anyone who answers closer than the nearest 5% for anything over 10% spends way to much time thinking about this subject.
Interesting opinion. But most people would use Excel for this, and although it will round to nearest integer, I don't think it does what you suggest, in order that one not seem too interested. And of course, 5% of $3mm is $150,000- plenty enough to get my attention. And many members saw $3mm way back in their rearview mirrors.

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Old 01-17-2013, 06:26 PM   #62
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Old 01-17-2013, 07:06 PM   #63
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Gold makes some sense, but I am not sure why a company like Royal Dutch Shell which pumps a commodity Oil is not an equally good hedge.
I think the main difference would come if inflation (or a currency collapse, etc) was accompanied by a downturn in economic activity. Such a downturn would reduce demand for oil (and other industrial commodities) and thus its price, while gold might not be similarly affected.

If there were some way to buy a cheap, highly-leveraged hedge against a very unlikely but calamitous economic upheaval, I'd be willing to put 1% of our portfolio in it. But, I haven't found such a thing. Maybe the closest thing would be a bit of arable land--and a small investment in "if the excrement hits the ventilator" necessities.
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:03 PM   #64
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If there were some way to buy a cheap, highly-leveraged hedge against a very unlikely but calamitous economic upheaval, I'd be willing to put 1% of our portfolio in it. But, I haven't found such a thing. Maybe the closest thing would be a bit of arable land--and a small investment in "if the excrement hits the ventilator" necessities.
How about arable land with oil and minerals and the rights thereto?
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Old 01-17-2013, 11:01 PM   #65
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I'm an optimist by nature. But I'm utterly convinced there will be a reckoning. The math impels it.
I've got to agree with this statement, and the one that hard decisions won't be made until a crisis is reached. And I expect that this is going to lead to loss of purchasing power of the dollar. Now whether that occurs in a painful but orderly way or in a way that leads to panic and economic disruption is the big question (in addition to when). I.E. does the ventilator stay white or turn brown?

So my thinking on this issue is that if it stays white, the economy continues to chug along and stocks and bonds continue to perform more-or-less ala FireCalc, although perhaps depreciated relative to other currencies. In this case it makes sense to continue to be invested in the stock/bond markets. If it turns brown, then the economy undergoes real contraction and stocks and bonds will take a huge beating. In this case we will all be in a world of hurt...unemployment will be high, inflation will be higher, and there will likely be social unrest. Better in this case to have enough hard assets at hand to buy food for a couple of years, keep your head down, and quick, study Mandarin!

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Old 01-18-2013, 08:02 AM   #66
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60% stocks, 25% cash instruments, 15% bonds. This is fluid, though; 3 months from now the breakout could be a lot different. Or not.

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Old 01-19-2013, 07:24 PM   #67
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