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Old 09-05-2013, 07:36 AM   #21
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Thanks all for your responses. As someone mentioned, the tricky part of pulling out of the market leaves you with a predicament of when to jump back in
(and possibly missing some big gains). I think staying with my original mix works best for my situation and comfort level (even tho I probably might be a bit heavy on cash - compared to most of the other responses). The thing I have to do is not worry to much about the day to day volatility - or overreact to a correction.
Likelihood of a correction is always out there, but the market does historically perform well over the long term.
Rebalancing helps mitigate our collective inability to time the market...that's what it's for.
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Old 09-05-2013, 08:45 PM   #22
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Currently 61 stock, 11 bond, 29 cash (stable value accounts earning around 3%). The original plan was to, when I FIRE'd first of June, was to transfer that cash into bond funds for a 60s/40b AA, but given the current outlook for bonds, I figured those stable value accounts would function well as fixed income ( in lieu of bonds) in the 60/40 AA. Didn't want to put new money into bonds at this time. Just transferred $375k from those SV accounts into stock funds, to establish the AA I wanted. That's long-term money (20+ years). 60% stocks may seem a bit high for a retiree, but our pensions cover our expenses and - if we do draw from investments - it would be no more than 2% flat (no automatic COL increases).
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Old 09-05-2013, 09:23 PM   #23
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I know you'll probably counsel me to not try to time the market and stick with the long term plan, but given the gains we've already seen since October of last year, would it not be prudent to pull back some equity for cash ?
If you have to ask others if you should be a market timer, then you probably shouldn't.
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Old 09-06-2013, 01:32 AM   #24
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Old 09-06-2013, 10:10 AM   #25
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27% Stocks
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Note: Real estate is high due to recent 60% appreciation
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Old 09-06-2013, 01:52 PM   #26
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60% real estate
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We have an investment property for sale which represents about 10 % of our NW that I plan to buy bonds with.
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Old 09-06-2013, 02:10 PM   #27
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Old 09-06-2013, 06:14 PM   #28
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My current situation is "retired, no pension or SS". The Outside World doesn't really affect my plan.


Gross Allocation:
55% equities
45% fixed income

Equities are split 70% domestic, 30% international. Domestic equities are split 80% total stock market, 20% small cap value, in case that Fama-French 3 factor boost is real. :-) Fixed income is split between a year's worth of cash and a half and half combination of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and an intermediate term bond fund. (The bond fund is the lease efficient taxwise, and is mostly in an IRA. The TIPS are exempt from state tax, so they're OK in the regular taxable account, as my effective Federal tax rate is about zero.)

The Fiddly Details, ignoring cash and rounding to two places because more precision is just silly:
23% Intermediate Term Bond Fund
23% TIPS fund
31% Total Stock Market Fund
8% Small Cap Value
17% FTSE All World Ex-US


I rebalance once a year if any of these get below 75% of the target percentage, or above 125%. That is, most years I don't rebalance, and I don't need to obsess over the current allocation on a daily basis. I'm lazy... Cash is raised if needed as part of the annual check, selling off whatever is closest to the top of the band to bring it closer to my target. The portfolio is managed for total return, not dividends. My policy document says to tax loss harvest when the opportunity presents itself, so I did that as part of the 2009 rebalance. I won't have to worry about paying taxes on capital gains in my lifetime...
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Old 09-07-2013, 01:06 AM   #29
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Thanks everyone, again...and Photoguy, your comments are spot on..if I have to ask whether I should try to time the market, then I probably shouldn't.
I think I was just getting nervous reading all of these daily "doomsday" articles about the market corrections.

Seeing how most everyone on this board basically stays with their long term portfolio allocation mix (along with the occasional rebalancing) - reassured me that I need to stay on my original path and be better at ignoring the day to day media blitz.

It's also helpful to see the various diversification strategies that folks have come up with in their portfolio mixes.

Appreciate it !!!
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Old 09-10-2013, 06:23 PM   #30
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I think the zig zag of events surrounding Syria is a good example of not trying to time the market based of current situations.
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Old 09-10-2013, 10:20 PM   #31
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Old 09-11-2013, 01:47 PM   #32
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Over 66 here, still working. Maybe stop at the end of the year, maybe next year, maybe not. Today, 100% equities (50/50 US/other).

By the way, I am closer to Syria than you are, but I don't care. Iran is my next-door neighbor and they have vowed to attack Western Interests in the Caspian (i.e., us/me) if ANYONE attacks them. (Guess who they are talking about.)

And you have portfolio anxiety? Stop reading the paper and turn off the TV. Pick an AA and stick to it.
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Old 09-11-2013, 04:12 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Russman View Post
.....I know you'll probably counsel me to not try to time the market and stick with the long term plan, but given the gains we've already seen since October of last year, would it not be prudent to pull back some equity for cash ?....
S&P at time of OP on 9/4/13 1653.08
S&P 500 close today 1689.13
% change +2.2%

Probably not.
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Old 09-11-2013, 06:37 PM   #34
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I'm with Ed. Just say no to media hype. I don't even listen to the radio in the car...I bring mp3's of podcasts on cool topics I'm interested in. I de-friend FB people that put too much news and politics in there, but news leaks into my life mostly through FB, but even that I try to ignore. Until it's time to join the revolt, I'll be ignoring the whole ball of wax.
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Old 09-11-2013, 06:42 PM   #35
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Old 09-11-2013, 06:59 PM   #36
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Considering the historical suggestions of firecalc for higher equity allocations for long retirements, I am surprised at the relatively modest allocations in this thread. I am running at 65% equity and that seems about the lightest I can get away with.
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Old 09-11-2013, 07:03 PM   #37
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Considering the historical suggestions of firecalc for higher equity allocations for long retirements, I am surprised at the relatively modest allocations in this thread. I am running at 65% equity and that seems about the lightest I can get away with.
+1, I'm surprised by the modest equity allocations but am more surprised by the liquidity many posters carry.
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Old 09-11-2013, 07:06 PM   #38
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62% Stocks, 22% Bonds, and 16% cash.

100% of my monthly 401(k) contributions are going into Wellington.

In 2008, when things were tanking, I handled it by not logging onto our 401(k) accounts for about 11 months. I also didn't open our snail mail statements until things began to turn around. I've made back lots more than I lost. (does that even make sense?)
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Old 09-11-2013, 08:50 PM   #39
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I'm 56, and I'm 60% equities, 25% bonds, and 15% cash. I use to be way too heavy in stocks, until I read an excellent book by Ken Fisher that explained that most of your portfolio performance is driven by asset allocation. The one critical factor to keep in mind is, over the last 20 years bonds have outperformed stocks, so it's very easy to say that a strong bond allocation works well. That trend will not continue, so if anything, I'd suggest a slightly stronger bias toward equities than fixed income going forward. With interest rates at historic lows, bond prices have only one way to go, and that is down.
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Old 09-11-2013, 09:38 PM   #40
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I'll be 58 in a few months. Husband is still working & plan to retire in 2 years. Currently have non-COLA'd pension/annuity of $5K a month. We both plan to take SS at 62. So AA is 80% Equities & 20% Cash/Bonds.
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