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View Poll Results: What rate of return are you expecting over the next 20 to 40 years?
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1%
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1 |
0.63% |
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2%
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0 |
0% |
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3%
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3 |
1.88% |
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4%
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6 |
3.75% |
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5%
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24 |
15.00% |
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6%
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40 |
25.00% |
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7%
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30 |
18.75% |
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8%
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26 |
16.25% |
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9%
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13 |
8.13% |
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10%
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13 |
8.13% |
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11%
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1 |
0.63% |
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12%
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1 |
0.63% |
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13%
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0 |
0% |
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14%
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1 |
0.63% |
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OVER 14%
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1 |
0.63% |
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What rate of return do you expect over the long haul?
08-12-2008, 03:46 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 346
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What rate of return do you expect over the long haul?
I was reading an article in my local newspaper that was saying that Warren Buffet thinks that in the long run you can expect a 6.9% return. He thinks that the 8% that many pension plans are projecting is too high.
So I thought this would be a good poll question to see what return that others expect to get over say the next 20 to 40 years.
I made the poll broad to cover all answers.
Jim
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08-12-2008, 04:33 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,550
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Are these nominal returns or real (i.e. inflation adjusted) returns?
__________________
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08-12-2008, 04:36 AM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 346
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I think they are nominal returns.
Jim
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08-12-2008, 05:07 AM
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#4
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,308
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What asset type are we talking about? Our entire porfolios regardless of composition?
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08-12-2008, 05:38 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by summer2007
I was reading an article in my local newspaper that was saying that Warren Buffet thinks that in the long run you can expect a 6.9% return. He thinks that the 8% that many pension plans are projecting is too high.
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Let's see, Warren Buffet controls a real big insurance company (Berkshire) and he thinks investor returns will not be very high going forward. Maybe he could help all of us out and sell us annuities? 
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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08-12-2008, 05:57 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Central, Ohio, USA
Posts: 2,619
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I voted 5% but really expect 5.7% or so (but can live well at 5%). I have received that average return for almost 30 years now. All fixed return no stock market.
__________________
Vietnam Veteran, CW4 USA, Retired 1979
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08-12-2008, 07:37 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,355
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I voted for 6%. Not sure I expect it, but hope.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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08-12-2008, 07:47 AM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 328
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I voted 4% (over inflation). Nominal requires estimating a second quantity (inflation).
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08-12-2008, 08:21 AM
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#9
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 546
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I think long term, I expect 9% and 3% inflation, so I voted for 9% (5.825% real). Including dividends, international and my extremely high risk profile, I perhaps am shooting pretty high during my accumulation stage.
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08-12-2008, 08:23 AM
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#10
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,234
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About 4.5% *real* return.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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08-12-2008, 08:25 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,690
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I plan for 7% long term. I hope for more 
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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08-12-2008, 08:32 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 13,964
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5-6% real...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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08-12-2008, 10:05 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
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I use 7% in my long-term plan with 3% going to inflation and 4% real.
If I can get 10% for a couple of years in the beginning, then I may be able to do with a little less than 7% long-term.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
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08-12-2008, 10:10 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Negative. Man is entering another dark age.
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08-12-2008, 10:16 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
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One billion percent
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08-12-2008, 10:19 AM
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#16
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky inlets
Posts: 30,319
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Negative. Man is entering another dark age.
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Then invest in batteries and short solar 
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08-12-2008, 10:22 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Sure joke about it. Let me tell you burlap is itchy..
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08-12-2008, 10:27 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Sure joke about it. Let me tell you burlap is itchy..
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We'll all be nudists then!
On the plus side, maybe more of us will be fit and good to look at then if there's food shortages.
On the other hand, overweight will be the new sexy again as it'll be a sign that someone is a good hunter or gatherer. I guess we're screwed either way.
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08-12-2008, 10:32 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 13,964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marquette
I guess we're screwed either way.
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Every dark cloud...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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08-12-2008, 10:33 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,650
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9.2% including inflation on my Vanguard calculator( I assume it's a historical type).
I'm more inclined to tip my hat to Buffett/Bogle's 7-8% range with their method of estimating.
Have been using 7% lately when running ORP.
heh heh heh - may change my mind. I tend to watch the SEC yield number more closely as I'm retired. 
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