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View Poll Results: What rate of return are you expecting over the next 20 to 40 years?
1% 1 0.63%
2% 0 0%
3% 3 1.88%
4% 6 3.75%
5% 24 15.00%
6% 40 25.00%
7% 30 18.75%
8% 26 16.25%
9% 13 8.13%
10% 13 8.13%
11% 1 0.63%
12% 1 0.63%
13% 0 0%
14% 1 0.63%
OVER 14% 1 0.63%
Voters: 160. You may not vote on this poll

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What rate of return do you expect over the long haul?
Old 08-12-2008, 03:46 AM   #1
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What rate of return do you expect over the long haul?

I was reading an article in my local newspaper that was saying that Warren Buffet thinks that in the long run you can expect a 6.9% return. He thinks that the 8% that many pension plans are projecting is too high.

So I thought this would be a good poll question to see what return that others expect to get over say the next 20 to 40 years.

I made the poll broad to cover all answers.



Jim
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Old 08-12-2008, 04:33 AM   #2
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Are these nominal returns or real (i.e. inflation adjusted) returns?
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Old 08-12-2008, 04:36 AM   #3
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I think they are nominal returns.

Jim
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:07 AM   #4
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What asset type are we talking about? Our entire porfolios regardless of composition?
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:38 AM   #5
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I was reading an article in my local newspaper that was saying that Warren Buffet thinks that in the long run you can expect a 6.9% return. He thinks that the 8% that many pension plans are projecting is too high.
Let's see, Warren Buffet controls a real big insurance company (Berkshire) and he thinks investor returns will not be very high going forward. Maybe he could help all of us out and sell us annuities?
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Old 08-12-2008, 05:57 AM   #6
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I voted 5% but really expect 5.7% or so (but can live well at 5%). I have received that average return for almost 30 years now. All fixed return no stock market.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:37 AM   #7
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I voted for 6%. Not sure I expect it, but hope.
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Old 08-12-2008, 07:47 AM   #8
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I voted 4% (over inflation). Nominal requires estimating a second quantity (inflation).
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Old 08-12-2008, 08:21 AM   #9
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I think long term, I expect 9% and 3% inflation, so I voted for 9% (5.825% real). Including dividends, international and my extremely high risk profile, I perhaps am shooting pretty high during my accumulation stage.
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Old 08-12-2008, 08:23 AM   #10
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About 4.5% *real* return.
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Old 08-12-2008, 08:25 AM   #11
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I plan for 7% long term. I hope for more
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Old 08-12-2008, 08:32 AM   #12
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5-6% real...
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:05 AM   #13
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I use 7% in my long-term plan with 3% going to inflation and 4% real.

If I can get 10% for a couple of years in the beginning, then I may be able to do with a little less than 7% long-term.
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:10 AM   #14
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Negative. Man is entering another dark age.
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:16 AM   #15
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One billion percent
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:19 AM   #16
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Negative. Man is entering another dark age.
Then invest in batteries and short solar
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:22 AM   #17
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Then invest in batteries and short solar
Sure joke about it. Let me tell you burlap is itchy..
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:27 AM   #18
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Sure joke about it. Let me tell you burlap is itchy..
We'll all be nudists then!

On the plus side, maybe more of us will be fit and good to look at then if there's food shortages.

On the other hand, overweight will be the new sexy again as it'll be a sign that someone is a good hunter or gatherer. I guess we're screwed either way.
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:32 AM   #19
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I guess we're screwed either way.
Every dark cloud...
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Old 08-12-2008, 10:33 AM   #20
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9.2% including inflation on my Vanguard calculator( I assume it's a historical type).

I'm more inclined to tip my hat to Buffett/Bogle's 7-8% range with their method of estimating.

Have been using 7% lately when running ORP.

heh heh heh - may change my mind. I tend to watch the SEC yield number more closely as I'm retired.
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