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View Poll Results: What Real Return are You Planning on over the next 30 years or so?
less than 0% 0 0%
0-2% 8 6.35%
2.1-4% 51 40.48%
4.1-6% 41 32.54%
6.1-8% 18 14.29%
greater than 8% 8 6.35%
Voters: 126. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-26-2010, 09:08 AM   #21
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Maybe this will help:

Chances Are - Opinionator Blog -

Before going on vacation for a week, you ask your spacey friend to water your ailing plant. Without water, the plant has a 90 percent chance of dying. Even with proper watering, it has a 20 percent chance of dying. And the probability that your friend will forget to water it is 30 percent. (a) Whatís the chance that your plant will survive the week? (b) If itís dead when you return, whatís the chance that your friend forgot to water it? (c) If your friend forgot to water it, whatís the chance itíll be dead when you return?

Although they sound alike, (b) and (c) are not the same. In fact, the problem tells us that the answer to (c) is 90 percent. But how do you combine all the probabilities to get the answer to (b)? Or (a)?
ď[He] was visibly nervous while trying to figure out what he would tell the woman. After mulling the numbers over, he finally estimated the womanís probability of having breast cancer, given that she has a positive mammogram, to be 90 percent. Nervously, he added, ĎOh, what nonsense. I canít do this. You should test my daughter; she is studying medicine.í He knew that his estimate was wrong, but he did not know how to reason better. Despite the fact that he had spent 10 minutes wringing his mind for an answer, he could not figure out how to draw a sound inference from the probabilities.Ē

"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 04-26-2010, 09:49 AM   #22
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I have no idea and never planned on a certain return (real versus nominal value).

However, plugging my/DW's actual holdings into the M* Asset Allocator tool, it shows an expected 6.76% return long term, with a possible three month loss of 10.94%.

The tool gives you the real rate of return, adjusted for a 2.5% annual inflation rate.

Does it work? Have no idea (I'll let you know in 30 years, when I'm 92 )...

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Old 04-26-2010, 10:30 AM   #23
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Running over time in one-week increments, this poll would make a great market-sentiment indicator.

As well as a great market-timer warning...

The book written on, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
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Old 04-26-2010, 04:14 PM   #24
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I use these for WAG purposes:

The Portfolio Solutions 30-Year Market Forecast: Low cost investment manager, Portfolio Solutions

At 54% of FIRE target
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Old 04-27-2010, 02:47 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by DivinDave View Post
I see almost half the respondents said 2.1 to 4 percent. I wish that was divided even finer. It would be interesting to see.
Ya I actually did the math and it was real close between the 2.6-4% and the 4.1%+ category.

75% equity (8% -3% inflation)=3.75%
25% fixed (4.5- 3% inflation) = .375%
So a 4.125% can you say right on the dividing line.
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Old 04-27-2010, 04:30 AM   #26
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OK Midpack, what's your answer?

Mine was 2.1-4%. That is based on being able to achieve an avg return of at least the face yield on the face value of my longish munis, on the entire portfolio, at around 55/45 AA, and 3.1-3.3% inflation. However, if things go more or less as planned for the next couple of years, the portfolio will easily outlive us even if the avg annual real return is as low as 1%. Of course I use FIREcalc, but when I am playing around with numbers on my iPhone spreadsheet in the back of a taxi, these are the assumptions I use.

Find Joy in the Journey...
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Old 04-27-2010, 02:35 PM   #27
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The poll is now up to 100 responses. I always wonder how many people are reading (if not posting onto) this forum. I guess 100 is a reasonable estimate.
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Old 04-27-2010, 04:30 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
I always wonder how many people are reading (if not posting onto) this forum. I guess 100 is a reasonable estimate.
No need to wonder, go to the portal and scroll down to "Online Users". It reads 398 at the moment...
Numbers is hard.

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension

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Old 04-27-2010, 05:39 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Rambler View Post
OK Midpack, what's your answer?

I am planning on 1-2%, hoping for better...

No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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