What real return do you anticipate for your future investments?

[haha]

I have never done this, before or after retiring.

I think it is largely impossible, so I use my time in other ways.

I would only run out of money in some sort of political or other catastrophe, which by its nature would not be forecastable.

Ha

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha I have never done this, before or after retiring. I think it is largely impossible, so I use my time in other ways. I would only run out of money in some sort of political or other catastrophe, which by its nature would not be forecastable. Ha

+1

If my investments barely keep up with inflation, at 3.5%WR I have more than enough to last till the age of 70 for maximum SS which is less than 13 years away.

And when I get to 70 if I last that long, I think I can live fine on SS if it is my only income as my lifestyle may be different then, such as less travel and selling the 2nd home, etc... So, if my portfolio shrinks over the years and I hope that it will not, the effects will be more psychological than financial.

[Telly]

I too have spreadsheets I put together at the beginning of the E-ER experiment. I haven't touched them in a long time.

I used 3% inflation, and 2% inflation for SS benefits, and 6% nominal return for the total portfolio. I could use a fixed return across all years, or do it year by year. When I started, deep in bear market, I was putting in negative returns for years out! It has all improved greatly since those dark days! But also as the years have gone by, the expected years to cover have also decreased... funny how that works

Not everyone has enough resources to make the concept of spreadsheets and worrying about it a don't-care (I think I just did a double-negative there). However, I believe barring some major calamity either world or personal, I'm good now, and have joined the "I've got it covered" group.
those are the Two fools dancing on the hands of time

[racy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut ...I make runs in my own spreadsheet for several 'what if' scenarios starting at 0% 'real return' and go up from their, but I guess I'm being ultra conservative as my baseline real return for the core of my plan is only 2%. Is that being too conservative?

Hi BBQ,
That's the beauty of spreadsheets! On jubilant market days you can put in optimistic numbers and on fearful market days you can put in doom & gloom numbers. In my spreadsheets, I can vary inflation, growth, SEC yield, and SS growth. I don't have set numbers, but on the whole, I tend to use conservative numbers for most 'what if' scenarios.

[pb4uski]

+1 and I love being able to do one and two variable sensitivity tables though I do them infrequently enough that I usually have to look up how to do them.