Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-18-2014, 01:33 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
I have never done this, before or after retiring.

I think it is largely impossible, so I use my time in other ways.

I would only run out of money in some sort of political or other catastrophe, which by its nature would not be forecastable.

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-18-2014, 02:07 PM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,425
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I have never done this, before or after retiring.

I think it is largely impossible, so I use my time in other ways.

I would only run out of money in some sort of political or other catastrophe, which by its nature would not be forecastable.

Ha
+1

If my investments barely keep up with inflation, at 3.5%WR I have more than enough to last till the age of 70 for maximum SS which is less than 13 years away.

And when I get to 70 if I last that long, I think I can live fine on SS if it is my only income as my lifestyle may be different then, such as less travel and selling the 2nd home, etc... So, if my portfolio shrinks over the years and I hope that it will not, the effects will be more psychological than financial.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-19-2014, 12:03 AM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Telly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,448
I too have spreadsheets I put together at the beginning of the E-ER experiment. I haven't touched them in a long time.

I used 3% inflation, and 2% inflation for SS benefits, and 6% nominal return for the total portfolio. I could use a fixed return across all years, or do it year by year. When I started, deep in bear market, I was putting in negative returns for years out! It has all improved greatly since those dark days! But also as the years have gone by, the expected years to cover have also decreased... funny how that works

Not everyone has enough resources to make the concept of spreadsheets and worrying about it a don't-care (I think I just did a double-negative there). However, I believe barring some major calamity either world or personal, I'm good now, and have joined the "I've got it covered" group.
those are the Two fools dancing on the hands of time
__________________
-- Telly, the D-I-Y guy --
Two fools dancing on the hands of time
Telly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-19-2014, 06:03 AM   #24
Recycles dryer sheets
racy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 481
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut View Post
...I make runs in my own spreadsheet for several 'what if' scenarios starting at 0% 'real return' and go up from their, but I guess I'm being ultra conservative as my baseline real return for the core of my plan is only 2%. Is that being too conservative?
Hi BBQ,
That's the beauty of spreadsheets! On jubilant market days you can put in optimistic numbers and on fearful market days you can put in doom & gloom numbers. In my spreadsheets, I can vary inflation, growth, SEC yield, and SS growth. I don't have set numbers, but on the whole, I tend to use conservative numbers for most 'what if' scenarios.
__________________
The Big Lebowski: Are you employed, sir?
The Dude: Employed?
racy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-19-2014, 07:56 AM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,438
+1 and I love being able to do one and two variable sensitivity tables though I do them infrequently enough that I usually have to look up how to do them.
__________________

__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Real estate investments outside your hometown younginvestor2013 FIRE and Money 38 09-27-2013 08:51 PM
Limiting future 401K investments??? Chuckanut FIRE and Money 6 11-14-2011 09:06 PM
What % of return to you guys use to plot your portfolio gains for future years? Hiredgun FIRE and Money 35 06-23-2010 12:57 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:44 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.